Kevin McStay thinks Kerry will win on Sunday and if they don’t, Cork might sneak it.
The simple analysis points to a Kerry win. The Munster and All Ireland champions, playing at home in Fitzgerald Stadium, a venue that in recent years means a Kerry win, will just have too much for a Cork team still dazed by the league final pummelling they received from Dublin.
I believe much of this week’s analysis is flawed and many pundits are repeatedly pointing to the 2015 league and last year’s provincial and All Ireland series to draw conclusions about Sunday’s game. The smart approach is to treat this year’s decider as a one-off game where, despite the clichéd nature of the summary, it really will all depend on the little incidents and accidents of a Munster final day.
Let’s look at last year’s provincial decider. Cork approached it in good form, beaten semi-finalists in the 2014 Allianz League facing a Kerry team who stumbled and almost fell but ended up in sixth place. And before the Kingdom ran off with all the 2014 championship silverware, Cork at home actually looked a good bet to win Munster. Final score? Kerry trounced them, winning by 12 points.
The spring campaign did not matter to Kerry. It was a shocking display by the Rebels, but a key conductor for the victors that day was the brilliant Declan O’Sullivan – who is now retired.
What is also forgotten is that Cork recovered from that defeat, won their Round 4 qualifier and almost caught Mayo at the post. Few seem to recall the final scoreline of Mayo 1-19 Cork 2-16 (that’s a draw Kevin) - a single point loss.
And this season Cork marched majestically through the league, topping the table while Kerry, again, staggered in at sixth which means they just avoided relegation or missed out on a semi-final place on scoring difference. It always depends on the angle you want to take. But the league did not matter to them.
Early in that league campaign they played each other and Cork ran out very easy winners (much like their 2014 league encounter). It is safe to say that the Green and Gold are a law all on to themselves when it comes to league versus championship form.
If you contrast the teams that played last spring with the selections in the opening championship games this year it becomes obvious that the scoreline and result hardly matters at all and that in reality, there are no eternal truths to take from it.
Kerry had six different starters versus Tipp while Cork had eight for their win over Clare. New lines and partnerships everywhere.
The problem with Cork remains their ‘no-show’ performances and displays that sometimes look like a total lack of interest. How else do you analyse last year’s Munster final and this year’s Division 1 final? And yet you have to imagine they were trying. So, what goes wrong when Cork goes wrong?
For me their defence remains suspect and the moving of Eoin Cadogan to midfield is a factor. Though topping the league table, Cork had the second highest concession total (111 points) in the top flight. But guess who had the worst? Yep – Kerry trumped them with 117 points conceded! Cork are average enough at midfield too – hence the Cadogan move and Alan O’Connor getting a recall.
But the Rebels’ Achilles heel is their lack of consistency in games, often going to sleep for long periods and only deciding to play when the game is busted. Their concentration levels, the type required to really go toe-to-toe with Kerry, have not been in evidence in the big games they’ve played this past 18 months.
Kerry have stuff to ponder too. A lack of anticipated game time for Tommy Walsh, James O’Donoghue and Colm Cooper means they arrive at the final unsure of form and match fitness. Kerry are not settled on a starting 15 yet - not by a long shot - and this final is the first step, a most important step, in starting that process.
They must hope that Kieran Donaghy checks into the ball game in the same form he checked out last September and if he does they will be well down the road to success.
If he does not, then Tommy Walsh will just have to step up and for now, even the Kerry management are unsure if that is likely.
Their league was average to poor but they know that has not mattered before. But Kerry’s defence has work to do also and no doubt both camps have spent the past few months trying to tidy up this area.
So, here I am again, making a case for the Cork footballers. How often in the past have we done this only to be proven badly wrong by the men from Kerry? Yet I still believe in the character of young sportsmen to collectively agree ‘enough is enough’ and I fully expect to see Cork produce a massive effort. If they don’t perform on Sunday I would see little future for them in the championship beyond the quarter-finals.
Ultimately, it is unlikely to be enough as Kerry have so many excellent footballers to call on, are well experienced in combating the various systems modern opposition teams will roll out and so they get my vote to win. The confidence Kerry have in their ability is unmatched nationally and has been hard-earned these past few years. It will be the difference between victory and defeat.
But we are talking a couple of points and no more than that. And if the game is tight we can’t be surprised if Cork actually snatch a late win.
