My thoughts for Friday.
FRIDAY 3rd APRIL
2.0 Highstreetvouchers.com
TOP NOVICES HURDLE (Grade 2)
4yo + 2 miles 110 yards
TRENDS:
Only 6 of the last 17 winners ran at the CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL (5 in the Supreme NH & 1 in the Triumph Hurdle).
8 of the last 17 winners had won on their LATEST START.
12 of the last 14 winners were AGED 4 6.
13 of the last 14 winners had run between 2 & 5 times over hurdles.
PHILIP HOBBS has won the race 3 times in the last 9 years.
Only 2 FAVOURITES have won in the last 10 years.
Leading Contenders:
- AMERICAN TRILOGY won the County Hurdle at Cheltenham by 11 lengths off a mark of 135. The five year old has won two of his five starts over hurdles including a C&D win in October. Blinkered for his last couple of races, he should handle the ground but takes on much stronger opposition back here.
- COPPER BLEU is also entered in the 2m 4f novice hurdle on Saturday but he has shown his best form over the minimum trip. Fourth in the Supreme Novice Hurdle last time at Cheltenham, he had every chance. A winner at Newbury earlier in the season, he has run twice at Aintree (5th in the championship bumper last season and 3rd in a NH in October when appearing not to stay 2m 4f). Philip Hobbs has won this event three times in the last nine years and the seven year old receives five pounds from the likes of American Trilogy and Medermit.
- MEDERMIT produced a career best when a neck second in the Supreme Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham. A winner at Folkestone and Ascot earlier in the campaign, he didnt travel with the same fluency as the likes of Copper Bleu, Red Moloney or Somersby which is a worry on this sharper track. Otherwise, he has sound credentials as he is improving with every race.
- MICHEAL FLIPS will hopefully be reunited with A.P.McCoy (1 from 1) having been well beaten in the Supreme Novice Hurdle. Andy Turnells charge had looked a horse with a big future when winning at Kempton on Boxing Day. Officially rated 139, he wont mind the good ground but the formbook tells us he has plenty to find with Copper Bleu, Medermit etc.
- OSCAR LOOBY represents the Go Native team of Noel Meade and he looks an improving horse judged on his four lengths win at Gowran last time. A winner on good ground at Kilbeggan last summer, he is at his best over two miles and is officially rated 138. He shouldnt be underestimated as his trainer knows where he stands with regard to the Supreme Novice Hurdle runners.
- RED MOLONEY was rated 109 on the Flat and he won his first three races over hurdles with consummate ease at Musselburgh on lively ground. Beaten five lengths in sixth in the Supreme Novice Hurdle, he reportedly didnt like the softer ground and didnt look at home on the stiff track. Aintree will suit him ideally and the ground will suit. The chief concern is the stable form as they were not firing last week.
- SILK HALL could run here instead of the four year old hurdle on Thursday. Twice a winner already since joining Alan King, this race has been won by two four year olds in the last ten years including Pierrot Lunaire last year. He is an interesting contender who could go well.
- SOMERSBY found two miles three too far at Ascot in January but was back to his best in the Supreme Novice Hurdle last time. Dominic Elsworths mount stayed on strongly after the last to finish third. He is eight pounds better off with Medermit for two and three quarters of a length and this track should play to his strengths. A winner on good ground at Kempton in November, he is a horse with a touch of class and plenty of speed. His record on sharp flat tracks is: 141.
CONCLUSION: Copper Bleu arrives with sound claims but there is a possibility he will be stepped up to two and a half miles twenty four hours later. Therefore my two against the field are RED MOLONEY and SOMERSBY who will both appreciate this speedy track.
2.35 MATALAN.CO.UK MILDMAY NOVICES CHASE (Grade 2)
5yo + 3 miles 1 furlongs
TRENDS:
FAVOURITES have won the race 6 times in the last 12 years.
12 of the last 14 winners were in the FIRST THREE in the BETTING.
ALL of the last 14 winners had between 4 & 6 races over fences.
9 of the last 13 winners had won at least HALF of their chase starts.
16 of the last 20 winners had winning form over 3 miles.
There have ONLY been 2 winners OLDER than 8, in the last 18 years.
Leading Contenders:
- CALGARY BAY has not raced beyond two miles five but this race provides an ideal opportunity for connections to see where they stand for the future. Only tenth in the Arkle last time, he won the Dipper Novice Chase at Cheltenham and Henrietta Knight has been adamant he is a stayer in the making. His breeding suggests he will stay being a half-brother to useful hunter chaser Robbers Glen (won over 3m 4f and fifth in the Foxhunters).
- HERECOMESTHETRUTH has had a very successful first season over fences winning five of his six starts. A five lengths winner of the Pendil Novice Chase at Kempton, he had previously won the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novice Chase at Sandown from Massinis Maguire (four pounds worse off). A winner over three miles on good ground at Chepstow in the Autumn, he is a terrific jumper and he should go well.
- KILLYGLEN won his first two races over fences including on his debut for initial outing for Howard Johnson at Ayr in January when beating Chief Dan George (won twice since) by 38 lengths. The seven year old appeared to be struggling when making a bad mistake before pulling up in the RSA Chase last time. A gelding by Presenting, he should handle decent ground and is interesting if back to his best.
- MASSINIS MAGUIRE has run some very good races over fences even though he has only won one of his four starts. Runner-up in both the Feltham Novice Chase at Kempton and the Scilly Isles Novice Chase (four pounds better off for a nose with Herecomesthetruth), he finished a well beaten third in the RSA Chase last time. Prone to making mistakes, he still has his stamina to prove with his record over three miles reading: U423.
- SHINING GALE was fitted with cheekpieces for the first time at Warwick last month and they did the trick as he beat West End Rocker by two and a half lengths. Charlie Manns charge benefited from a wind operation during the summer and he has won three of his five starts over fences including a defeat of Herecomesthetruth at Cheltenhams Paddy Power meeting. This represents a step up in class but, provided the effect of the cheekpieces works again, he could run well.
- SIEGEMASTER is a half-brother to Our Vic and he has won two of his six races over fences this season. Despite winning on heavy ground at Thurles and Navan, he has some good form on sounder surfaces (record on good or good/soft: 222454F). He fell at the eighth in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham when wearing cheekpieces for the first time. Officially rated 137, his early fall means he should be fresher than most in the line-up and he stays three miles well.
*WICHITA LINEMAN was given a magnificent ride to win the William Hill Handicap Chase at Cheltenham last month. Jonjo ONeills eight year old is not an easy ride but was galvanised by A.P.McCoy to collar Maljimar in the shadow of the post. Victorious in three of his four races over fences, he must be vulnerable on a track such as Aintree on drying ground, given his tendency to race lazily.
CONCLUSION: A very trappy contest which lacks a top-class novice. No strong feelings but if Henrietta Knight gives CALGARY BAY the go-ahead, he is the selection. If absent, I would take a chance with SIEGEMASTER.
3.10 JOHN SMITHS MELLING CHASE (Grade 1)
5yo + 2 miles 4 furlongs
TRENDS:
14 of the last 19 winners already had winning form over 2m 4f.
15 of the last 16 winners had run AT LEAST 12 times over fences.
13 of the last 16 winners had been AGED between 8 & 10.
15 of the last 18 winners had WON a GRADE 1 chase during their career.
13 of the last 17 winners had run in the QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE.
FAVOURITES have won the race 3 times in the last 6 years.
IRISH TRAINED RUNNERS have won 5 of the last 7 renewals.
Leading Contenders:
- BRIAREUS missed the whole of the 2007/2008 season but has bounced back well this season. A winner over two miles at Kempton in November from Imsingingtheblues, he didnt stay three miles in the King George but still ran very well until tiring and finishing fourth. A faller at the last in the Queen Mother Champion Chase last month, he has only run once over 2m 4f, winning a Graded novice chase at Ascot in 2006. His record on flat tracks reads: 1121214 and his record on good ground is: 114. There is a possibility he is slightly better racing right handed (4 wins from 6 compared to 1 win from 6 on left-handed tracks) but he could go well, especially if Paddy Brennan takes the ride (1 from 1).
- NACARAT is more likely to run here rather than the three miles one chase on Thursday according to Tom George. As discussed, he won a handicap at Doncaster over this trip in January off 135 and the Racing Post Chase off 147. His record over 2m 4f on flat tracks is: 121 and he is expected to be ridden by A.P,McCoy (2 wins from 2 rides).
- PETIT ROBIN has won one of his four races this season. Having won a Newbury handicap chase off a mark of 132 in November, he was placed in the Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton and the Victor Chandler Chase at Ascot. Third last time in the Champion Chase behind Master Minded, he is much better racing left handed and he could be another who prefers a flat track (beaten twice at Cheltenham). The step up in trip ought to suit as he is unbeaten in two runs over 2m 4f.
- TIDAL BAY has been a frustrating horse to follow this season but he should encounter his optimum conditions here. Fourth to Imperial Commander in the Ryanair Chase last time, he stayed on strongly at the finish following a far from ideal preparation. Provided his jumping is up to scratch, he has a major chance given his course record: 2111 (unbeaten over fences at the track). His record over 2m 4f reads: 1122111114. Better ground should help and there will be no excuses this time. Howard Johnson won this twice with Direct Route in 1999 and 2000 and this race has been Tidal Bays target all season.
- VOY POR USTEDES won this race last year from Master Minded by 18 lengths. The eight year old has won one of his four outings this season. An impressive winner of the Ascot Chase in February by 14 lengths, he was two lengths second to Imperial Commander in the Ryanair Chase having made a crucial mistake four out. His course record reads: 214. He could be vulnerable on fast ground on such a sharp track. Despite his victory in this event, I am not convinced it is his ideal venue.
CONCLUSION: As discussed, this is an ideal opportunity for Tidal Bay to get his career back on track but doubts remain over his well being and I feel a safer option is PETIT ROBIN who is unbeaten over the trip. If there is going to be a big upset, BRIAREUS may provide it.
3.45 JOHN SMITHS TOPHAM CHASE (Handicap)
5yo + 2 miles 5f 110 yards
TRENDS:
9 of the last 11 winners were OFFICIALLY RATED NO MORE than 132.
8 of the last 14 winners carried at least 10st 7lb.
13 of the last 15 winners had won EARLIER IN THE SEASON.
9 of the last 111 winners finished in the FIRST FOUR LAST TIME OUT.
NO OUTRIGHT FAVOURITE has won since 1998 (GWANAKO Joint Favourite last year).
The last 8 winners STARTING PRICES have been: 7/1, 25/1, 16/1, 50/1, 33/1, 12/1, 10/1, 14/1.
14 of the last 16 winners had run AT LEAST 10 times over fences.
8 of the last 13 winners had run between 10 & 21 times over fences.
ALL of the last 12 winners were AGED NO OLDER than 10.
12 of the last 16 winners were AGED between 8 & 10.
9 of the last 17 winners had won over 2m 4f previously that season.
10 of the last 14 winners had won ONE of their previous 3 starts.
9 of the last 16 winners had run at the CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL (6 of them in the Racing Post Plate / Mildmay of Flete).
Leading Contenders:
- FINGER ONTHE PULSE has a touch of class and is potentially well treated off a mark of 147. Successful in the Jewson Novice Chase at Cheltenham last season, he won at Limerick over two miles earlier this term. Third to Schindlers Hunt (has finished third in the Ryanair Chase since) at Leopardstown in January off 144, he was sixth last time behind Something Wells in the Festival Plate. Dropped three pounds, he will hopefully be ridden by Barry Geraghty (3 wins from 13 rides) and is set to carry 11st.
- FRANKIE FIGG may be nine pounds out of the handicap but he looks tailormade for this. Off the track for 83 days, he has shown his best form following a break and it is worth recalling Howard Johnsons comments in One Jump Ahead at the start of the season: He looks magnificent and has really filled out during the summer. Related to Lord Transcend, he has come back into work looking a different horse. Effective on any ground, he is suited by two and a half to three miles. There could be a nice prize in him this season. A faller at Cheltenham in October on his seasonal reappearance, he ran well and was still in contention when coming to grief at the second last (3 miles). He possibly found the three miles on soft ground too far last time at Ayr but has been freshened up for this. A winner on fast ground, he has only had seven runs over fences. His trainer has produced a string of horses to run well in this contest, namely Theatre Knight (2nd in 2007 at 66/1), Scotmail Boy (3rd in both 2001 & 2004 including at 100/1) and Forestal (fourth in 2000). Dont be surprised if this big strapping seven year old goes well.
- NATIVE CORAL is currently twelve pounds out of the handicap but he shouldnt be discarded. Another who goes well following a break (69 days), he was second to Kandjar DAllier at Haydock in November before finishing a creditable third to Big Fella Thanks in the Skybet Chase at Doncaster. This shorter trip will be ideal and he gets on well with Davy Condon. Despite being an eleven year old, he has only had 11 races over fences. Good ground brings out the best in him.
- NOIR ET VERT is another set to race from out of the handicap. Ferdy Murphys charge was fourth in the Kim Muir Chase at the Festival in 2008 off a rating of 131. Seven pounds lower now, he enjoys good or faster ground and he may appreciate this drop in trip. Without a win since April 2007, he is down to his lowest mark since then, too.
- OODACHEE was sixth in the race last year off a mark of 131. One pound lower now, he must have good or faster ground to show his best and conditions should be more to his liking this time. The ten year old ran well last time when eighth to Character Building in the Kim Muir Chase at the Festival leaving the impression this shorter trip will suit. This will be his ninth visit to the UK and, while he is seeking his first win, he has been placed on four occasions. Runner-up to Oslot in the Galway Plate in July, he is only three pounds higher now. Granted his favoured conditions, he has definite each-way claims.
- PRIVATE BE goes well fresh and has been off for 69 days. A nine lengths winner from Nacarat (now rated 162 having won his next 2 starts including the Racing Post Chase) at Exeter off a mark of 138 in December, he is back to the same mark following two poor runs at Cheltenham. Third in the Paddy Power Chase at Cheltenham in November, also off 138, he has won at Aintree on the Mildmay course in the past. His trainer Philip Hobbs won this event with Bells Life (1997) and Gower Slave (2001) and Pak Jack finished third in 2006. He handles good ground and, if back to his best, has leading claims.
CONCLUSION: I have backed a couple of these ante-post, namely FINGER ONTHE PULSE (14/1 Coral) and FRANKIE FIGG (40/1, Boylesports, Coral, Paddy Power, William Hill). I also intend supporting OODACHEE (25/1, Boylesports, Ladbrokes, Victor Chandler). They are my three against the field.
4.20 CITROEN SEFTON NOVICES HURDLE (Grade 1)
4yo + 3 miles 110 yards
TRENDS:
16 of the last 19 winners have been AGED 6 or OLDER.
8 of the last 15 winners have been AGED 7 or OLDER.
9 of the last 15 winners had winning form over 3 MILES.
ALL of the last 16 winners had WON over at least 2m 5f.
10 of the last 17 winners had run at the CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL.
16 of the last 17 winners had run at least 4 times over hurdles (PETTIFOUR the exception last year).
11 of the last 15 winners had contested a GRADED HURDLE.
11 of the last 13 winners had finished in the first FOUR LAST TIME OUT.
JONJO ONEILL has won the race TWICE in the last 6 years.
NIGEL TWISTON-DAVIES has won the race TWICE in the last 10 years.
2 FAVOURITES have won in the last 9 years (both trained by Jonjo ONeill).
Leading Contenders:
- ACCORDING TO DICK is officially rated 140 having won two of his three starts over hurdles for Philip Hobbs. Despite winning his Irish point over three miles, he is yet to race beyond two miles five under Rules. A three parts of a length winner from Fiftyonefiftyone (only fifth next time) at Newbury last time, the race also contained Michel Le Bon who has won easily since. Twice a winner on good ground, he has still looked quite immature and one wonders whether he is ready for such a step up in class.
- BENSALEM, as discussed earlier, missed the Cheltenham Festival due to a dirty scope. The six year old has looked a high-class horse in the making with his sole defeat coming at Cheltenham in January when beaten half a length by Diamond Harry. Off the track since (69 days), he will be a fresh horse but will Alan King risk him on fast ground (has never raced on ground quicker than Good to Soft). If he lines up, he is the one they all have to beat even though he has never tackled three miles under Rules before.
- KARABAK will also be running over three miles for the first time. However, he looked to be crying out for it judged on the way he finished in the Ballymore Properties Hurdle at the Festival. The Kahyasi gelding ran on strongly and was beaten less than two lengths by Mikael DHaguenet. Rated 153, he handles good ground and A.P.McCoy will know him better this time.
- KNOCKARA BEAU had Karabak behind him in an Aintree bumper last spring and is a rapidly improving young horse. A wide margin winner at Kelso in a Grade 2 novice hurdle in February, he was a very good fifth to Mikael DHaguenet last time at the Festival. He left the impression earlier in the season when his stable werent firing, he was a stayer and this longer trip looks tailormade for him. Effective on good ground, he should go well.
- PRIDE OF DULCOTE has enjoyed a good season winning three of his five races and finishing second in the Grade 1 Albert Bartlett Hurdle at Cheltenham behind Weapons Amnesty. A winner on good ground at Chepstow in October by 24 lengths, he appears to be versatile in terms of track and ground conditions (twice a winner at Wincanton, too). Officially rated 152, he is a solid choice if in the same form as previously.
- WEAPONS AMNESTY will be attempting to follow up his Cheltenham Festival victory after his half a length win from the aforementioned Pride of Dulcote. It was the fastest ground he had encountered having shown a good level of form on much softer surfaces in Ireland. Davy Russell reported afterwards that Charles Byrnes gelding is not the quickest which is a worry on this track. However, he is unexposed over this trip having won both his outings over three miles.
CONCLUSION: The prize could be heading to Barbury Castle with Alan Kings nominated runner, namely BENSALEM or KARABAK being the selection. KNOCKARA BEAU is worth a saver.