Federer will be hoping that Nadal doesn’t win RG in order to give him a top 2 seeding at Wimbledon.
Due to insular way Wimbledon works, they look to skew the rankings and avoid a meritocracy in their seedings unlike all the other slams who employ the world rankings.
Nadal is currently 1,995 points ahead of Federer.
Nadal could drop 800 points if he does not retain his title on Sunday, this would almost certainly assure Federer of the no 2 seed as Federer has gained 720 points by virtue of his semi final appearance in RG this year as he did not compete in the prior year. So either way Federer will be gaining 720/1520 points here.
No matter what happens now, Nadal will still remain the world no 2 after Sunday but this is where Wimbledon really goes off on a solo with their favouritism.
100% of ranking points picked up on grass court in the prior year before the tournament starts are then added to the ranking points before the tournament starts.
Nadal currently has 720 in the bag from last year’s Wimbledon, Federer has 360. Both could potentially add another 500 points to this total.
They also add 75% of ranking points for the best grass court performance in the year before that. In that case Federer has 1,500 points to defend by virtue of being the 2017 Wimbledon champion and Nadal has 135 to defend as he only made R4 in 2017.
So if we look on it on the proviso that Nadal retains Roland Garros this wekened it leaves it
Grass Court season 18/19 +360
Grass Court season 17/18 -1,365
That still leaves Federer with a deficit of 270 to catch up on. If Nadal wins RG and gets to a final at Queens/Halle then he will be seeded 2 irrespective of what Federer does. In the event of Nadal winning RG, Federer would need to win Halle or at least make the final and hope Nadal doesn’t compete in Queens/Halle to get the no 2 seeding.
We all know Federer didn’t want to suffer the fate that he did yesterday, he has been humiliated enough by Nadal on clay over the years but he knew that he simply had to gain the ranking points to have any chance of a no 2 seeding at Wimbledon.
I don’t see Nadal competing at Queens or Halle irrespective but Federer is pretty much hanging on by a thread, unless he gets to the SF of Wimbledon this year, it’s likely his seeding is going to fall and fall every year. This probably represents his last chance. The desperation to stretch his slam record out something further than Nadal or Djokovic might catch is looking more futile with every step.
If Taz or Boycott want to learn some of the home truths about grass court tennis then feel free to ask as they both seem quite uneducated about it. I put this together for Taz as he hadn’t a clue that Wimbledon had their own seeding system.