Brexit


#1021

What Brexit do you mean?


#1022

A Brexit that allows the UK regulate it’s own industries and manage its trade agreements independent of the EU.


#1023

But this has already been proven to be pure bunkum.

The UK can regulate their own industries negotiate separately if under a FTA, but it just doesn’t solve Northern Ireland. It doesn’t solve the commitments made by Leavers during the referendum on the border. That’s the reality.

Nor does it solve the actual issues for British manufacturers and supply chains that work in the EU. There has got to be some form of recognition of standards. It doesn’t work otherwise.

Nor does it solve existing EU trade arrangements outside the bloc that the UK would be leaving. You can’t just magically make them reappear overnight and protect traders who rely on them.

Nor does it solve things like Financial passporting.

There is therefore an enormous political and economic cost to that route.

How is this cost worth it for some mythical EU collapse (that has been suggested for years?).

The UK is one of the world’s leading economies. Why does it need to cause economic devastation to itself in the short term? It’s ludicrous.

The UK’s biggest problems into the future are;

  • pension and social security black hole. That is why western societies continue to need immigration to plug this hole. Most of the key Leave voices outside of UKIP don’t even care about this issue, but it was a core issue for Brexit voters. The discussion has moved to swapping Poles for Ukrainians and more from old Commonwealth countries. How does this improve the issues that people had with immigration? Because of control? Control doesn’t mean jack shit, the UK needs immigrants or the math doesn’t work. There will continue to be floods of immigrants.
  • poor infrastructure: the Brexit dividend will be swallowed up by increased dole pay for a few years.
  • education/tech and adapting to automoted jobs: the EU is poor at this. But I do not see why the UK cannot put in place their own policies within the EU to improve things.
  • continued growth of China: it’s just the reality that the world is becoming more globalized. I agree with Trump being aggressive with China and trade as the US has been ripped off- but that is only temporary. The goal is still to negotiate new and better trade deals. Scale pays.
  • increased nationalism: how does an Irish border improve this?

The idea that is the long term it’s “worth it” doesn’t make sense unless you are willing to admit the level of pain you will take. It’s like me saying that the Irish economic collapse was somewhat worth it as at least we stopped the clock on pensions entitlements, and weren’t compounding the problem further for future generations. Even if the EU collapsed, the UK in or out would suffer a huge economic shock.


#1024

I love the idea that the brits can just snap their fingers and hey presto, trade agreements with individual countries magically appear.
These things take a lot of time and competence on the part of negotiators.
Time is a luxury they don’t have. Show me anyone they might have that could negotiate who won’t be laughed out of a room after the shambles of the last year plus.

I love the way @labane, that you are taking the only line left that remains for brexiteers - in the fullness of time, it’ll all be alright guv’. The catch all answer to any hard questions. In the fullness of time :rofl: yeah, that’s vague and nonsensical and should keep the plebs happy
Mate, in the fullness of time, the voting demographic will have changed dramatically and the campaign for re-entry will be well underway and thanks to the change in the voting demographic, it won’t have to be hard fought campaign.

The great british public have been stitched up like a fucking kipper :rofl:
Fuck 'em, if they want to slit their own throats economicallly, that’s fine. My only concern with this whole thing is the northern end of our island.


#1025

In fairness Britain negotiated a trade deal with Lesotho yesterday.

On precisely the same terms it had within the EU.


#1026

Britain is willing to accept short term hardship for the bigger picture- sovereignty and I applaud them for it. The problem with the Irish is short term thinking. The EU will fall on its arse without Britain and I cannot wait for it.


#1027

Are they though?

Polls indicate the mood has shifted.

Once the reality starts to hit then opinion tends to shift.

What do you suggest Ireland do with the EU?


#1028

Are they fuck. Like i said, stitched up like a kipper by a bunch of bought and paid for charlatans


#1029

Probably a fair point. If say France goes bankrupt, like it might do one day, how is Britain any better off out of the EU than in it? It could say "we’d be better off out of it because there’d be less contagion effect, but that’s just another way of saying “we’ll be better off because we’ll be doing less trade with France out of the EU”, but that seems to contradict the Brexit talk of global Britain and there being no real disadvantage to leaving.


#1030

It’s about half of their exports, not the mention how it screws up supply chains.

I don’t understand this zero sum game wanting the EU to collapse etc. It’s an odd way to think about an ally and another western democracy. Saudi Arabia would be a bit more exciting from a moral perspective…


#1031

The uk wants the eu to collapse because it wasn’t their idea in the first place and because they are a partner in it rather than the big dog.
Small minded imperialism and nothing more.


#1032

They’re just mental, completely unadapted to modernity. If they had their way they’d be going through the Africans with red coats and bayonettes.


#1033

The same polls said the leave vote couldn’t win. The eu is a federalist unaccountable bohemeth. I wish we’d leave it too but Oirish are afraid of hard work and we don’t have the stomach for making tough decisions


#1034

Cruelest thing you could do to the cunts would be just give them what they want.


#1035

That’s not true.

I don’t see your valid reasons there, you need to flesh them out.

The UK are tied into all sorts of international obligations. If France are attacked tomorrow by a foreign country, the UK are at war. The UK signed up to all of these things.


#1036

They bribed them for it too


#1037


#1038

The major concrete issue when the Brexit vote came up was immigration. It came about with the pop-culture gore of the Bataclan still fresh in everyone’s minds, Nice DIY Terror just around the corner and that whole pervasive ambience of jumpy Islamophobia at every turn.

With the risk of tempting fate, 2018 has been relatively quiet on terror, either through less attacks, terrorism fatigue, or both. So while the whole immigration question is still open, and there are good solid topics like trade deals up for debate that the ordinary Briton deeply understands, I’d wager Brexit would be quietly shelved in the morning if a vote were taken.


#1039

Immigration was a red herring. Strong leave votes in places like Wales that have not seen an immigrant in a generation.

It was similar to Trump campaign - harking back to halcyon days of blue collar workers earning a living before globalization robbed their jobs, even though people were horribly poor they saw a future of some sorts at least for their kids.


#1040

Wales has 1/22 the population of the UK with a wildly different set of demographics from England.