Bored and hungover here so decided to throw on a few antepost bets for the festival and start my portfolio
Went for Binocular at 5.5 & Khyber Kim at 18.0 for the Champion hurdle
Bold Optimist in the Bumper at 12.0
Big Zeb in the Queen Mother, 4.7
Midnight Chase in the Gold Cup at 32.0
Will add a few more in the coming weeks…Big Bucks is currently 1.74 on betfair and will be 1/2 on the day, may well pile into that in the coming weeks
You’re off your trolley.
Why and because???
nice thread puke. here would be some of my thoughts so far
Supreme - cue card is value at 5-2. His performances so far would be good enough to win most supremes yet alone a poor renewal which this is looking like. any potential dangers such as zaidpour will probably duck him by going for the neptune. He will get punters off to a great start.
Arkle - unlike other years there is no standout performer. Ghizao has done absolutely nothing wrong. he jumps fantastically and goes well at the track. i would be concerned that he would get outpaced on quicker ground. the two i like are finian’s rainbow (8sh) and kilmurry (20s plus). Kilmurry flooped behind ghizao last time out but probably found the ground too dead for him. if it comes up quickesh he will run a big race. Finian’s rainbow made a lovely debut over fences at newbury. was running a fine race in neptune last year where he travelled better than anything down to three out untill his stamina gave way. looks like 2 miles is his trip and is the likely winner for me at this stage.
Champion - Binocular on the snaff for reasons outlined in sport of kings thread. take the 5s now as i think he’ll win christmas hurdle well.
David Nicholson - our girl sally at 16s is by far the best ew ante post. she has this race as her target. quevega is the standard bearer no doubt but i think this mare is really really special.
Neptune - i was really impressed by backspin in the challow where he put some decent sorts to the sword. at 8s or 9s he rates a decent bet, particularly as he hjas now shown that he acts on all ground.
Champion chase - Big Zeb on the spaff, for reasons outlined in sport of kings thread.
Bumper - i was quite taken by the performance of roger charlton’s keys in that junior bumper at the weekend. this again is his target which reduces the risk. will improve for the better ground but must show that he stays the extra couple of furlongs. will get a nice weight allowance for being a 4 year old and at 16s he represents decent value.
RSA - time for rupert is a worthy favourite at 7-2 as he loves the track (never out of first 2 in all 5 races at track). in addition his form has being flanked all over the shop. however there have being talk of a gold cup entry and so it is definitely worth looking at a double figure alternative. the one i like is wayward prince of ian williams at 20s plus. this race is a target, has won at track and was a leading novice over sticks last year.
Gold Cup - Punchestowns is the bet. nice run behind pride of dulcote last time out. henderson is looking for this fella to peak in march, not december so you can be sure he was no where cherry ripe for this race. we must also remember that pride of dulcote was just beaten by weapons amnesty in the big three mile novice over sticks at festival. Forget Punchestowns run in RSA last year as he injured a hock and did not show his true form (he was also a doubt right up before the race as he was lame at home). we should remember that he was the only horse to trouble big bucks over sticks and this is a massive endorsement of his chances.
Ryanair - tranquil sea at 8sh is the bet for me. looks a much improved performer in the last year after promising so much as novice. has a course and distance victory to his name and unlike many other runners this will be his target rather than an after thought. i think the key to this lad is being fresh and edward o’grady looks like campaigning him as such.
County - id be interested in alan king’s mille chief or salden licht. in fact king’s horses are well worth watching in the big handicaps as he looks to have a lot of well handicapped horses after the trials and tribulations of last year.
Coral cup - id be interested in lush life should he run in this or the pertemps.
fred winter - paul nichols is to be respected here and i think he may have the winner in empire levant. this lad travelled like much the best horse in his last race and jumped impeccably until getting the third last all wrong. he was allowed come home in his own time. he would still interest me for the triumph if he ran in it but i can see him being campaigned with this race in mind.
it will be interesting to look back at this thread in march B)
I’ve had a few quid e/w on Dunguib for the Champion Hurdle at around the 20/1 mark. He has been a bit forgotten about due to the fact he hasn’t run yet, and could be half that price on the day if he does the business on his reappearance.
He was less than 2l behind Menorah last year, and the horse he had behind him, Oscar Whiskey came out and won very nicely at the weekend. Still far from convinced he could live with Binocular come March, but at 20/1 I think he’s worth a punt.
Khyber kim is the forgotten horse of the race
I think you’re mad backing horses antepost at this point as there is so long to go yet, you are not guaranteed they will run and there is a lot that can still change between now and then. You could even get a better price on some of those horses on the day. The only way i would say it’s not a bad idea is if you are fairly sure a horse is definitely going for a certain race, has a good chance and is over-priced. But, your selections appear to be made out of boredom as you say yourself.
Regarding your selections:
Champion Hurdle - Binocular has a chance alright (wouldn’t be backing him at 5.5 now though), Khyber Kim won’t be winning it.
Bumper - Bold Optimist won’t be winning it.
Queen Mother - Big Zeb has a fair chance of winning it.
Gold Cup - I don’t think Midnight Chase will win it, i think it’ll be a step up in class too far for him.
Just my opinions mind…
I think Willie Mullins is in for one hell of a festival
Supreme Novice - Zaidpour, did not give true running lto,trading around 8s massive
Champion Hurdle - Hurricane Fly, BANKER, What a horse
RSA - Quel Esprit - Been chipping away at this one for months now, still not 100% certain he will go for this but if he does he wins at his leisure
Others Im looking out for are Riverside Theatre, Dirar and Ghimaar but holding for now until we can see how their respective markets are shaping up.
i would fancy knight pass for champion bumper after his impressive display at southwell under a penalty. the bumper he won at sandown at start of year is a notoriously hot bumper. last year it was won by megastar with waywad prince, master of the hall and stoneys treasure behind. bensalen won that particular bumper another year.
he is far from a banker and isn’t a fluent enough hurdler compared to the others at the top of the market…Think he is way overpriced myself
Overpriced or underpriced?
I would definitely be looking to take him on at 7/2 quoted by Powers, particularly in the ante post market, given that he is expected to run twice more before Cheltenham.
apologies, underpriced, he is way too short, would have him at 7 or 8-1 myself
Mare Race -> Quevega
County -> Thousand Stars
Lay Binocular all day long every day for next 6 weeks.
thousand stars reported to be going over fences?
why would you lay binocular?
on the former, i have my reasons, but not really an AP bet, as the price will be available right up to declarations, so will keep the powder dry.
i know the problems binocular has last year, and it was a miracle they got him to the champ hurdle, cant see them sorting him out agin this year as he is far from 100% sound at the minute.
[quote=“HangBlaa, post: 547284”]
on the former, i have my reasons, but not really an AP bet, as the price will be available right up to declarations, so will keep the powder dry.
i know the problems binocular has last year, and it was a miracle they got him to the champ hurdle, cant see them sorting him out agin this year as he is far from 100% sound at the minute.[/quote]
i always got the feeling that binocular’s performance astounded connections. the fact that there was not a penny of note for him spoke volumes. On all known form last year he had no chance.
I was at newbury this year. the horse that i took from the fighting fifth was binocular. he travelled and jumped like the class horse in race and actually jumped the last in front. he blew up and ap left him come home in his own time. paddock judges noticed that he was carrying a lot of condition and would improve measurably for the run. peddlers cross was pretty straight that day. the impression i got was that there was no way peddlers could beat a fit binocular and certainly not the binocular wae saw last march.
with regard to being not 100% sound, im not doubting you hangbaa but if anything was a miss he would be drifting on the exchanges as you cant keep something like that a secret in current climate.
smad place came out of the chepstow race today with great credit. the race was run at a pedestrian pace which was never going to suit a relentless galloper like smad place. the race ended in a sprint finish from three out with the ex flat horse marsh warbler the beneficiary. the way the triumph is run will pay to smad place strengths and i liked the way he battled on today. he also was nimble over his hurdles, but you would expect nothing less from a horse trained by alan king. giving the exemplary record of the stable in the triumph i would pinpoint smad place as the most likely winner at this point in time.
just read that weird al has had a wind operation. i still think is he going to be a hell of a horse. i could see him being a ryanair horse this year or possibly a william hill chase horse as i think he is ridiculously well handicapped. he has a great record around cheltenham and should be backed in what ever race he runs in at the festival.
wishfull thinking is another horse that interest me. i backed him in the coral cup last year when he came down at second when looking booked for no worse than second. the concern before the race was that he had never won lefthanded but that run put all those doubts to bed. i was very impressed with him last time out at cheltenham, again over the coral cup distance. here he just went down to reve de sivola, who he was giving 7 pounds to. he was very badly hampered during the course of that race by a faller and other than that he would of won. he easily comes out of the race as the best horse at any rate. he would be of interest in something like the jewson or the new grade 2 for novices over two and a half miles. a very good jumper.