nice thread puke. here would be some of my thoughts so far
Supreme - cue card is value at 5-2. His performances so far would be good enough to win most supremes yet alone a poor renewal which this is looking like. any potential dangers such as zaidpour will probably duck him by going for the neptune. He will get punters off to a great start.
Arkle - unlike other years there is no standout performer. Ghizao has done absolutely nothing wrong. he jumps fantastically and goes well at the track. i would be concerned that he would get outpaced on quicker ground. the two i like are finian’s rainbow (8sh) and kilmurry (20s plus). Kilmurry flooped behind ghizao last time out but probably found the ground too dead for him. if it comes up quickesh he will run a big race. Finian’s rainbow made a lovely debut over fences at newbury. was running a fine race in neptune last year where he travelled better than anything down to three out untill his stamina gave way. looks like 2 miles is his trip and is the likely winner for me at this stage.
Champion - Binocular on the snaff for reasons outlined in sport of kings thread. take the 5s now as i think he’ll win christmas hurdle well.
David Nicholson - our girl sally at 16s is by far the best ew ante post. she has this race as her target. quevega is the standard bearer no doubt but i think this mare is really really special.
Neptune - i was really impressed by backspin in the challow where he put some decent sorts to the sword. at 8s or 9s he rates a decent bet, particularly as he hjas now shown that he acts on all ground.
Champion chase - Big Zeb on the spaff, for reasons outlined in sport of kings thread.
Bumper - i was quite taken by the performance of roger charlton’s keys in that junior bumper at the weekend. this again is his target which reduces the risk. will improve for the better ground but must show that he stays the extra couple of furlongs. will get a nice weight allowance for being a 4 year old and at 16s he represents decent value.
RSA - time for rupert is a worthy favourite at 7-2 as he loves the track (never out of first 2 in all 5 races at track). in addition his form has being flanked all over the shop. however there have being talk of a gold cup entry and so it is definitely worth looking at a double figure alternative. the one i like is wayward prince of ian williams at 20s plus. this race is a target, has won at track and was a leading novice over sticks last year.
Gold Cup - Punchestowns is the bet. nice run behind pride of dulcote last time out. henderson is looking for this fella to peak in march, not december so you can be sure he was no where cherry ripe for this race. we must also remember that pride of dulcote was just beaten by weapons amnesty in the big three mile novice over sticks at festival. Forget Punchestowns run in RSA last year as he injured a hock and did not show his true form (he was also a doubt right up before the race as he was lame at home). we should remember that he was the only horse to trouble big bucks over sticks and this is a massive endorsement of his chances.
Ryanair - tranquil sea at 8sh is the bet for me. looks a much improved performer in the last year after promising so much as novice. has a course and distance victory to his name and unlike many other runners this will be his target rather than an after thought. i think the key to this lad is being fresh and edward o’grady looks like campaigning him as such.
County - id be interested in alan king’s mille chief or salden licht. in fact king’s horses are well worth watching in the big handicaps as he looks to have a lot of well handicapped horses after the trials and tribulations of last year.
Coral cup - id be interested in lush life should he run in this or the pertemps.
fred winter - paul nichols is to be respected here and i think he may have the winner in empire levant. this lad travelled like much the best horse in his last race and jumped impeccably until getting the third last all wrong. he was allowed come home in his own time. he would still interest me for the triumph if he ran in it but i can see him being campaigned with this race in mind.