Haven’t read it all but this line stood out for me. Really looking forward to listening to this fella tomorrow night.
OB: The Gold Cup will be run on Saturday this season as I will be celebrating Ebadiyans win in the paddock well into the night
I’m very sweet on Mikael D’Haguenet and i want to back him antepost asap before his price possibly shortens. I don’t know which race he’ll run in though, but i’m guessing it’ll be either the Ballymore properties or the Albert Bartlett. He’s also down for the supreme novices but Cousin Vinny will likely run in that and i doubt they’ll put him in with Cousin Vinny. He’s currently available about 6/1 with William Hill for either of the two races i think he’ll run in and i can only see that shortening. Anyone else have any thoughts on it?
Most places have gone non runner no bet at this stage so back him and you’ll get your stake refunded in whatever race he doesnt run in. You might have to sacrifice a point on the odds though.
Notes from the Sub in Crumlin
Panel
Derek Thompson (DT) Jessica Harrington (JH)
Mark (The Couch) Winstanley (MW) Andrew McNamara (AM)
Brian Flanagan from The Star (BF) Bloke from Paddy Power (PP)
Supreme Novices
MW – Had a large bet on Michael Flips; no way Torphichen will win
PP – Ainama may not run; Cousin Vinny not sure to run here, he may run in the Ballymore; Paddy Mullins has not ridden over hurdles at Cheltenham which is big disadvantage for Cousin Vinny.
JH – Tips Red Moloney, jumps very well and was high class on the flat.
BF – Backs Cousin Vinny to win here or in the Ballymore
PP – Paddy Power are “Non Runner No Bet“ for all festival races from Tuesday 3rd
Arkle
DT – Spoke to T Cooper, trainer for Forpaddytheplasterer and he says he will run a big big race
MW – Tatenen won’t win
AM – Forpaddytheplasterer won’t win
JH – Forpaddytheplasterer gets tired in last 100 yard and this is not good going up the hill at Cheltenham; Thinks Tatenen will win and thinks Golden Silver is good value for an e/w bet.
BF – Forpaddytheplasterer will win and Golden Silver is good value for an e/w bet
PP – It’s the most open Arkle chase in years and thinks the standard is poor; A lot of money in for Golden Silver recently; can’t see Forpaddytheplasterer winning
Champion Hurdle
JH – No doubt that Binocular will win
AM – Binocular not suited to Cheltenham, he won’t come up the hill; Thinks Osana will get up the hill
MW – Binocular ha too much class for the rest; Wouldn’t back Osana with counterfeit!
PP – Loads of money coming in for Binocular
BF – Sublimity is great value, maybe back without Binocular.
DT – Won in the Dark a good e/w bet
Ballymore Hurdle
MW – Cousin Vinny should run in this one, back him Non Runner No Bet (NRNB)
JH – Also thinks Cousin Vinny should run here; so should Mad Max; Mikael D’hauguenet won’t run here; The Nightingale @ 25/1 is a great e/w bet
AM – Cousin Vinny, especially if Mikael D’hauguenet doesn’t run, back him now!
BF – Cousin Vinny to win if he runs
RSA Chase
MW – It’s a wide open race; had a small bet on Siegemaster @ 33/1 NRNB
JH – Cooldine is very toughand Ruby has chosen this one.
AM – Cooldine, but thinks Carruthers is good value after recent win
BF – Cooldine or Gone to Lunch
TH – Carruthers will lead all the way home
PP – Wide open race but not Siegemaster!; Not What a Friend either; Opts for Cooldine
Champion Chase
JH – There is nothing within 2 stone of Master Minded
MW – Master Minded is the best horse he has ever seen, he has backed him to win by at least 9 lengths; Back Briareus without Master Minded
PP – Big Zeb can’t jump
BF – Twist Magic if the ground is soft
Champion Bumper
MW – Sicilian Secret is a model for it
JH – Willie Mullins will win it
PP – Shinrock Paddy is the only danger to Willie Mullins
AM – Not Shinrock Paddy; Sicilian Secret is nothing special either, he’s beating no-one; Quinola Des Obeaux is impressive but Dunguib is the one for him; He spoke to Nian Carberry recently and she tipped Rite of Passage
BF – Lios a Choill or Rite of Passage
JH – Nicky Henderson will be Festival Top Trainer
World Hurdle
MW – Doumen on Kasbah Bliss is a shite jockey, can’t back him!; Kasbah has run mainly on flat courses, he won’t get up the hill at Cheltenham either; Punchestowns is his e/w bet of the festival
AM – Doumen is class and Kasbah Bliss is the only horse in the race; Powerstation is a great e/w bet
PP – No-one to oppose Kasbah Bliss
JH – Kasbah Bliss is festival banker
BF – Kasbah Bliss to win, Mobaasher e/w
Triumph Hurdle
AM – Jumbo Rio is small but very tough
BF – Can’t knock Zaynar
JH – Ebadiyan will only be placed; Talked to Barry and Zaynar has his best for and has a great chance
MW – The 3 Irish horses are so so close and they can’t all be good!; Thinks Walkon has a great chance, he spoke to one of the owners who fancies him, he’s won at Cheltenham before and has a good price.
PP – Zaynar @7/2 is crap value and he’s too lazy; Walkon will go off favourite so back him now; Master of Arts won’t win
Gold Cup
AM – Denman is not healthy, won’t win, Notre Pere needs soft ground
JH – Paul Nicholls 1, 2 & 3 with Kauto Star to win
MH – Kauto Star to win, Nicholls admitted he messed up his prep last year but has him right this year; Air Force One and Exotic Dancer are not good enough; Had a big bet on Notre Pere e/w
BF – Notre Pere won’t run as ground won’t suit; Neptune Collonges will win
Others
MW – Tranquil Sea has a good chance in the Jewson
AM – Not Tranquil Sea, he has poor form
MW – Watch Edward O’Grady horses, he runs them on the wrong ground to fool the handicapper!
PP – Raise Your Heart and Ninetieth Minute, both in the County Hurdle, are the only two horses to hold their Irish handicap
DT & MW & AM – Can’t Buy Time in National Hunt Chase
BF – Bobs Pride in the County Hurdle; Otto des Picitons in the Pertemps
Charity Bets
BF – Voy Por Ustedes in the Ryanair
DT – Mater Minded
MW – Cockney Trucker in the County Hurdle
JH – Kasbah Bliss in the World Hurdle
Chelts stats guide
TUESDAY 10th Mar 2008
13:30 William Hill Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
TRENDS:
12 of the last 13 winners won last time out
30 of the last 33 winners were 5 or 6 year olds
6 of last 11 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
6 of the last 10 renewals were won by the Fav or 2nd Fav
Ireland won 10 out of last 17 runnings
Respect:
Irish-trained horses
Two runs or fewer over hurdles
First two in the betting
Oppose:
Horses beaten last time out
Four-year-olds or horses aged seven or older
14:05 Irish Independent Arkle Chase
TRENDS:
French breads have won 7 of the last 14 renewals
Only 1 winner aged over 7 from 64 runners since 1990
Just 1 front running winner since 1980
20 of the last 22 winners won or finished 2nd last time out
7 of the last 8 winners were rated 142+ over hurdles
Just 1 Irish trained winner in last 11 years
Respect:
The highest rated hurdler in the line up
French-breds
Six and seven-year-olds
Oppose:
Failed to secure a hurdles rating of at least 142
Horses starting at a double-figure price
Front runners
14:40 William Hill Trophy Handicap Chase
TRENDS:
No winner rated over 150 for 25 years
Last 9 winners carried less than 11stone
Horses aged 11+ are 0-26 to get a place since 1997
Just one winning fav since 1977
6 of the last 11 winners were placed 1-2-3-4 at the festival before
The last 7 winners were held up at the back of the field
Ire won 2 of the last 3 years in which we had runners
4 of last 6 winners won on their previous outing
5 of the last 8 N.Henderson runners have made a place at worst
Respect:
Carrying 10st 9lbs or less
Fancied horses (minus the favorite) starting at up to and including 8/1
Irish and Nicky Henderson-trained contenders
Oppose:
Officially rated 150+
Aged 11 or older
Prominent racers
15.20 Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle
TRENDS:
22 of the last 25 winners won last time out
Only 1 5 year old has won since 1985 (last year )
Just 3 winners older than 8 since 1951
15 of last 19 winners had winning form at Cheltenham
17 of last 18 winners started in the first 6 in the betting
Respect:
Last-time-out winners
Previous course winners
Ran well in the AIG Europe Champion Hurdle
Oppose:
Five-year-olds
Aged nine or older
Outside the first six in the betting
Horses to contest the Christmas Hurdle and Triumph Hurdle
16:00 BGC Cross Country Chase
TRENDS:
Only 1 winning horse aged 8 or younger
Last 16 winners of Cheltenham cross-country race had previous experience at Cheltenham
Irish trained horse have won all 4 runnings
All 4 winners have come from the first 5 in the betting
Respect:
Ran well over the course before
Trained in Ireland
Ran in the P P Hogan Cross Country Chase
Oppose:
Seven or younger
Outside of the first five in the betting
Trained by Paul Nicholls
Never contested a cross-country race anywhere
16:40 David Nicholson Mares Hurdle
A new race no stats
WEDNESDAY 11th Mar
13:30 National Hunt Chase (Amateur)
TRENDS:
No 5 or 6 year old has won since 1989
Jonjo O’Neill has won 4 of the last 7 renewals
22 of the last 25 winners finished in the first 4 in their last run
just 1 winning Fav since 1992
4 of the last 5 winners had won over hurdles
Respect:
Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
Owned by J P McManus
Finished first or second last time out
Oppose:
Horses beaten last time out
Four-year-olds or horses aged seven or older
14:05 Ballymore Properties Novices’ Hurdle
TRENDS:
9 of last 11 winners had contested a pattern race
All 11 Challow Hurdle winners have been beaten (Diamond Harry this year)
24 of the last 25 winners won or finished 2nd on their most recent start
19 of the last 22 winners had run at least 3 times over hurdles
20 of the last 22 winners started in the first 6 in the betting
10 of last 11 Irish winners had won at Leopardstown earlier in the season
Respect:
Contested a pattern race last time out
Irish-trained contenders
Oppose:
Non five and six-year-olds
Failed to finish first or second last time out
Outside the first six in the betting
The favourite
14:40 Royal & SunAlliance Chase
TRENDS:
Just 2 6-year-olds have own since 1978
30 of the last 33 winners won or were second in their last race
No winner older than 8 since ‘92
Traditional nh-breads have won 15 of the last 17 renewals
All 15 Feltham Chase winners to run have been beaten
Only Willie Mullins has supplied an Irish winner since 1985
11 of the last 13 winners were rated no higher than 134 over hurdles
Respect:
The second, third and fourth-favourite
Traditional NH-bred horses
Seven and eight-year-olds
Berkshire Novices’ Chase runners
Oppose:
Failed to finish first or second last time out
The Irish (bar Willie Mullins-trained runners
15:20 Queen Mother Champion Chase
TRENDS:
9 of the last 10 winners had an SP of no bigger than 5/1
18 of the last 24 winners had been placed at the festival before
23 of the last 25 winners had won over 2m2f+ or had won over course & distance
Just 1 winner aged older than 10 since 1997
The last 9 reigning champion chasers have been beaten…….
6 of the last 7 winners contested the Tingle Creek Chase
The last 11 Arkle winners to run the following year have been placed at worst (Tidal Bay for a place )
Respect:
Won or placed at the Festival before
First three in the betting
Ran in the Tingle Creek Chase
Oppose:
Last season’s winner
Yet to win at further than two miles (unless a course and distance winner)
16:00 Coral Cup Hurdle
TRENDS:
5 of the last 6 winners won last time out
8 of the last 13 winners ran no more than 3 times earlier in the season
Respect:
Trained in Ireland
Light campaign (three runs or less since the autumn)
Last time out winners
Ran in the totesport Trophy, Ladbroke Hurdle or Pierse Hurdle
Oppose:
Prominent racers
16:40 Fred Winter Juvenile Novices Hurdle
TRENDS:
All 4 winners have emerged from the top third of the handicap
3 of the 4 winners had run exactly 3 times to acquire a handicap mark
3 of the last 4 winners won last time out
3 of the last 4 winners were French imports
Just 32 horses priced under 10/1 have finished in the first 7 in the 4 runnings
Respect:
Ran exactly three times
Last time out winners
Proven over 1m4f+ on the Flat
Trained by David Pipe or Gary Moore
Running from the top third of the weights
17:15 Weatherbys Champion Bumper
TRENDS:
The Irish have won 13 of the 16 runnings
5 of last 6 winners had run at least 3 times in bumpers
Last time out winners have won 14 of the 16 runnings
5 year olds have won 10 of the last 12 runnings
14 of the 16 winners had won a bumper comprising 15+ runners
13 of the last 16 winners emerged from the first 6 in the betting
4 of the last 6 winners did not run in the calendar year
Respect:
The Irish (notably Willie Mullins)
Five-year-olds
First six in the betting
Not run in the calendar year
Oppose:
Four-year-olds
Beaten last time out
Not won a race comprising 15+ runners
THURSDAY 12th Mar
13:30 Jewson Novices’ Handicap Chase
TRENDS:
All 4 winners emerged from the bottom third of the handicap
All 4 winners won or finished second last time out
7 year olds have won all 4 runnings
3 of the 4 winners were rated between 133-135
3 of N.Henderson 6 runners have been placed
Jewson sponsor J.O’Neills stable, he has had 2 seconds in the 4 runnings
Respect:
Bottom third of the handicap
Won or finished second last time out
Ran in a pattern race earlier in the season
14:05 Pertemps Final Hurdle
TRENDS:
Just 1 winning 5-yr-old in 34 runnings
8 of the last 13 winners won last time out
6 of the last 10 British-trained winners ran no more than 3 times in the season
The last 2 winners were unplaced in the Tote Heroes H’Cap at Sandown
12 of the last 15 winners had previously won over 3 miles
Respect:
Irish-trained
Last time out winners
Ran in the Leopardstown, Warwick or Newbury qualifiers
Trained by Jonjo O’Neill & Owned by J P McManus
Oppose:
Five-year-olds
Ran in the Chepstow or Haydock qualif
14:40 Ryanair Chase
TRENDS:
3 of 4 winners ran big races in the Paddy Power & Boylesports Gold Cups
All 4 winners had won at Cheltenham before
Paul Nicholls has won 2 of the 3 runnings
French Breads have won 2 of the 3 runnings
9 of the last 12 win/placed horses started in the first 4 in the betting
Respect:
Ran well in the Paddy Power Gold Cup or Boylesports.com Gold Cup
French-breds
Trained by Paul Nicholls
Rated between 152-157
Oppose:
Outside of the first four in the betting
Lack of quality Cheltenham form
15:20 Ladbrokes World Hurdle
TRENDS:
The last 20 winners finished in the first 4 last time out
7 of the last 15 winners contested the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot
Only 1 horse aged 9 or older has won since 1988 (last year I.Drever )
No 5 year old has ever won
The first 5 in the betting have filled all 15 win /place positions in the last 5 years
No Irish trained winner for 13 years
Last 21 winners finished in the first 4 last time out
6 of 8 F.Doumen’s 8 runners have finished 1st or 2nd
Respect:
First four in the betting
Ran in the Long Walk Hurdle
Oppose:
Nine years of age or older
Five-year-olds
Irish raiders
Failed to place last time out
16:00 Festival Plate Handicap Chase
TRENDS:
19 of the last 20 winners were rated no higher than 141
15 of the last 17 winners finished in the first 4 on their last run
15 of the last 17 winners previously ran at the festival before
Just 1 Irish trained winner since 1951
Last 8 winners started at double figure odds
31 of the last 36 win-and-place positions were filled by horses aged no older than 9
Last 8 favourites all finished unplaced
Respect:
French-breds
Carrying under 11st
Double-figure priced contenders
Oppose:
Rated 141+
Unplaced last time out
Trained in Ireland
Aged 10+
16:40 Kim Muir Handicap Chase
TRENDS:
25 of the last 29 winners were aged 8 or older
The last 5 winners were officially rated between 124-128
No irish trained winner for 26 years
5 of the last 6 winners were unplaced on their last run
4 of the last 6 winners had been off the track for over 60 days
Respect:
Lightly-raced this season or coming back after a layoff
Trained by Nicky Henderson
Oppose:
Rated over 135
Trained in Ireland
Aged seven or under
Aged 11 or older
FRIDAY 13th Mar
13:30 JCB Triumph Hurdle
TRENDS:
12 of the 14 winners “won” last time out
17 of the last 19 winners had run at least 3 times over hurdles
And 13 of the last 15 winners had won at least twice in those 3 runs
Only 1 winner rated lower than 80 on the flat since 1996
15 of the last 16 winners had their final prep run in feb
Only 2 placed Irish-trained horses in the last 5 years from 31 runners
10 of the last 15 winners started in the first 4 in the betting
Respect:
Winners of two or more hurdle races
First four in the betting
Last time out winner
Winners of the Adonis Hurdle and the Grade 2 juvenile hurdle at November’s Open Meeting
Oppose:
Not considered a 1m4f+ horse on the Flat
Rated under 70 on the Flat
14:05 County Handicap Hurdle
TRENDS:
Ire have won 3 of the last 6 runnings
5 yr-olds have won 6 of the last 10 runnings
No winner has carried more than11st 8lbs
17 of the last 20 winners finished placed at worst last time out
32 of the last 34 winners started at no bigger than 16/1
14 of the last 15 winners had run at least 4 times during the season
15 of last 16 winners had run in the previous 35 days
Respect:
Tan in the totesport Trophy
Five and six-year-olds
Won or finished second last time out
Oppose:
Aged eight or older
Carrying over 11st
Finished outside the first four last time out
20/1 or bigger
14:40 Albert Bartlett Spa Novices’ Hurdle
TRENDS:
3 of the 4 winners won at Cheltenham earlier in the season
7 of the 9 win-and-placed horses started at single priced odds
7 of the 9 win-and-placed horses had previously run over 3 miles
11 of the 12 win-and-placed horses finished 1st or 2nd last time out
All 4 winners could be found in the first 5 in the betting
Respect:
Top four in the betting
Ran well at Cheltenham before
Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
Oppose:
Yet to contest a race over 3m
15:20 Cheltenham Gold Cup
TRENDS:
7 of the last 8 winners were officially rated 166+
Horse beaten in the gold cup before are 1-53since 1994
9 of the last 11 winners had been placed at the festival before
6 of the last 9 winners have contested the King George Chase at Kempton
19 of the last 21 winners finished 1-2-3-4 last time out
14 of the last 15 winners were aged between 7 & 9
9 horses with an “sp” of at least 33/1 have been placed since 1997
The last 10 winners had all won earlier in the season
The last 8 winners were in the first 3 in the betting
Respect:
Irish-trained horses
Two runs or fewer over hurdles
First two in the betting
Oppose:
Rated under 166
Older than nine
Beaten in the Gold Cup before
16:00 Christie’s Foxhunter Chase
TRENDS:
16 of the last 18 winners were aged no older than 9
The last 15 winners had previously won under rules
18 of the last 23 winners also won last time out
The Irish have supplied 9 of the last 12 top four positions
6 of the last 8 winners have started at 14/1 or bigger
6 of the last 14 winners had previously won at Cheltenham
Respect:
Trained in Ireland
The favourite or second-favourite
Prominently-ridden horses
Oppose:
Aged in double figures
Not won under Rules
Ex-handicappers or better
16:40 Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle
A new race no stats
17:15 Grand Annual Handicap Chase
TRENDS:
7 of the last 8 winners were officially rated between 130-134
Ire have won 4 of the last 9 runnings
The last 3 winners ran in the race before
33 of the last 38 winners were placed last time out
No horse carring over 11st has won since 1998
35 of the last 40 win-and-placed runners were aged under 10
29 of the last 34 winners started at no bigger than 10/1
Respect:
Novices
Trained in Ireland
Owned by J P McManus
Trained by Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson
Oppose:
Aged ten or older
Above 10/1 in the betting
And if u still haven’t found a few winners when u are reading this last line….
Its time for you to give up backing horses !!!
Ok so i’ve done a few ante-post bets which go a little something like this:
3pts Mikael D’Haguenet EW for the Albert Bartlett, 6/1 Ladbrokes
3pts Mikael D’Haguenet EW for the Ballymore Properties, 5/1 Ladbrokes
Both are done NR No Bet. I’m just a massive fan of this fella and he’s my main gamble of the festival. Mullins probably won’t run him unless the ground is soft and if/when he does run in one of these races his price will be much shorter on the day i feel.
2pts Meath All-Star EW for the Champion Bumper, 16/1 Ladbrokes
Again a Mullins horse and with his record in this race you’d have to side with one of his charges. Cousin Vinny was a largish price to win this last year and came out of nowhere to do so. I’m hoping this will be the case again. I believe this fella has only had one run all season and that was back in August where he won convincingly. Mullins has put him in storage for this race and will have him as fresh as possible. A real dark horse.
2pts Jumbo Rio EW for the Triumph Hurdle, 14/1 William Hill
This race looks very competitive. Ebadiyan is being touted as a potential winner but this fella beat Ebadiyan on his most recent run. He’s trained by Edward O’Grady who always springs a surprise or two at the meeting. I also know that O’Grady rates this fella.
1pt Quiscover Fontaine EW for Albert Bartlett, 33/1 Paddy Power
This is speculative in the extreme but i like this horse and i think he’s very overpriced at 33/1. Another from the Mullins yard, i expect him to have a good shot at the top trainer award.
For the first time ever this year the bulk of my bets will be Ante-post. I won’t be betting on every race like i would have done before, i have my few fancies and will stick with them. The only other horses i can definitely see myself backing on the day are Cousin Vinny, Kasbah Bliss and Aachen. I’ll wait and see what prices they are.
Any of the rest of ye going to post up what ye fancy in advance of the festival? There’s no point in coming on here next weekend telling us ‘oh i backed so and so’… Spit it out now before it starts.
Three times at the weekend I sat down to go through the racing for Tuesday but got interrutped everytime. I am going to do osme serious study for a couple of hours tonight and I will post my invaluable findings.
Just backing a bit of value
Tomorrow
Champ hurdle
Osana EW
Brave Inca EW
binocular/B Inca rev froecast
marers hurdle
Oscar Rebel- EW, have this backed for a few weeks now (posted it uphere too I think) at 25s, will have another nibble tomorrow if price is alright
Have backed Michael Flips in the supreme novices and Ebadiyan in the Triumph. Only backed Ebadiyan cos Hacketts offered 16s last Thursday. Will probably back Quevega in the Mares hurdle as well today.
Rumours going around Cousin Vinny hasn’t travelled over well.
Elsworth rides BRave Inca. The going has also been changed to Soft. I think Binocular is looking more like a lay at this stage.
Fookin Mark Grant is riding Michael Flips. McCoy was itching for the ride. May as well tear that docket up.
Is Elseworth a positive or negative do ya think?
Id say they will go off some mad gallop to try and blow Binocular out of it.
[quote=“dancarter”]Is Elseworth a positive or negative do ya think?
Id say they will go off some mad gallop to try and blow Binocular out of it.[/quote]
I think Elsworth is a good jockey. Definitely wouldn’t see it as a negative anyways.
The donn was mad for Osana in the Champion Hurdle in yesterday’s Sunday Times.
Tomorrow im on Punjabi,Red Maloney and Freneys Well,i particularly like Freneys Well in the Crosscountry chase,i backed him over there last Year when he was a good 4th on the same ground,lightly raced since,any improvement could see him home at around 20/1,ive a few quid on Fair Along in the world hurdle on Thursday,placed in the festival last Year and ive a bit on Barbers Shop in thr Gold Cup on Friday,will have a few more bets as i watch the racing.Going on a big session tomorrow in the Spots to celebrate opening day.
War of Attrition is out of the Gold Cup while Sizing Europe is a doubt for the Champion hurdler
Have just doen my bets for tomorrow.
2 pts Win – Quevega
1 pt e/w – Micheal Flips
1 pt e/w – Brave Inca
Fooking raging that McCoy is not on Flips.
Also, liek Freneys well, and may have a small e/w bet on him tomorrow.
Think I wil go for the following tomorrow
2.05 Calgary Bay
2.40 Hobbs Hill e.w
3.20 Osana e.w
undecided on the others…