Cheltenham-Early thoughts

BeTimberin · March 11, 2021, 12:34pm

Its generally the first 4 or 5 in the betting that win or place. Although I think Bellshill, Cue Card and Relegate fucked that form slightly?

No point sending over a decent young horse to get smashed and fucked from it this yearm

BruidheanChaorthainn · March 11, 2021, 12:35pm

24 runners last year

BeTimberin · March 11, 2021, 12:58pm

Yea but that was pre-Covid and everything that has brought. Its hassle bringing them over now just to compete

BeTimberin · March 11, 2021, 1:48pm

Mac · March 11, 2021, 2:32pm

Mac:

@BeTimberin - I mentioned on the equine thread at the start of the season that Gabynako and Vanillier had been flagged as 2 of the best novices that Gavin Cromwell had handled. Both have showed promise but been slightly underwhelming.

Vanillier ran what I think will turn out to be a cracker of a race behind Farouk D’Alene in Limerick over Xmas in a race that is always a good Albert Bartlett trial. I expect both to be in contention turning for home and their prices are miles apart. I’ve backed both.

Gabynako is even more interesting. Has ran in Graded company over 2m and 2.5m and looked like he’s needed the extra distance. He’s probably just below Grade 1 company. He was entered in the big handicap in DRF over 2 miles and I fully expected him to blaze a trail and use his stamina. He was well tucked in and caught for toe as you’d expect.

The DRF run made no sense until the handicap entries came out. Gabynako entered in the Coral Cup and Martin Pipe off over a more favourable distance. Also holds entries in the big novice races. I landed on the theory that the run in DRF was to give him experience in the hustle and bustle of a big handicap. What’s more interesting is that Conor Mac is still eligible to ride him in the Martin Pipe I think and he’s a jockey Cromwell has huge trust in.

The Martin Pipe is a race full of plot horses but here we’ll have a horse with Graded Novice form over his ideal trip with one of the best conditional jockeys available at the moment. At 20/1 NRNB I think it’s a savage punt. If he goes for the Coral Cup or Ballymore then we’ve lost nothing but I do smell a plot here.

Pulled from Coral Cup so all aboard the Martin Pipe train - choo choo

BeTimberin · March 11, 2021, 4:44pm

12s at PP now

Mac · March 11, 2021, 4:59pm

Patroclus removed from all Cheltenham entries @Copper_pipe - runs in Sandown this weekend instead

Raylan · March 11, 2021, 5:08pm

Is that race priced up?

Mac · March 11, 2021, 5:10pm

Copper_pipe · March 11, 2021, 6:21pm

BeTimberin · March 11, 2021, 7:38pm

PP have a special on their site enhancing Gallopin Des Champs price to win the Martin Pipe from 14s to 20s. Horse is now priced at 10s for the race

BeTimberin · March 11, 2021, 8:06pm

Id also note no harm checking cash out options on earlier selections if odds havent moved and going back in for an extra place e.g. in the Supreme and Stayers.

BruidheanChaorthainn · March 11, 2021, 11:32pm

Capuccimix could be very interesting in the grand annual off ten stone presuming Rachel Blackmore rides him.

He ran a cracker in the Dublin racing festival setting a strong pace and paid for it at the finish weakening away after the last. The form has work out well with mitchouku and the shunter winning. Also a number of horses fancied for chelthenham in and around him.

He made 3 bad mistakes in leopardstown but I reckon with Rachel on board, much better ground and an easier 2 miles he could go very close carrying just 10 stone.

He’ll be suited by the race too ridden prominently and the more the ground dries the better. Henry had a double today too as well. He’s 33s at the moment but can’t see that shortening up.

thebookiesnightmare · March 11, 2021, 11:32pm

Column of fire & conflated not going to Cheltenham now

BruidheanChaorthainn · March 11, 2021, 11:34pm

I’d say concertista is a lay. massive negatives coming out of Willies camp. Same with sir Gerhard. Wouldn’t be shocked to see both pulled.

Seems Saint sam is triump bound now too.

johnnysachs · March 11, 2021, 11:51pm

Where did you see that re Saint Sam?

Spidey · March 12, 2021, 12:14am

Column of fire on a lovely weight too very similar to last year

Spidey · March 12, 2021, 12:14am

Is sir gerhard not fav now?

fenwaypark · March 12, 2021, 6:36am

Nah, cant see roksana having pace to beat concertista over this trip. She looks bombproof. If she was not 100 percent she would not be running.

Mac · March 12, 2021, 7:27am

There’s more than that. Disappointed Farouk D’Alene won’t travel. I gave him a great chance in Albert Bartlett