Cheltenham Festival Thread

Paddy Power are now offering non-runner, no bet on the festival so the ante post risk is now gone.

So are Celtic Bookmakers and Victor Chandler

well lads anyone have any fancies…my own thought on it would be:

arkle: definately think that noland is the classiest horse in the race but dont think he has done enough in his 2 starts this year…i think 1 of the irish horses possibly clopf (12-1)or thyne again(14-1) could well be worth a place…

champion hurdle:
very hard to class…you could make a case both for and against all the main contenders…think katchit could be in the mix(10s) while afsoun(3rd last year available at 33s+) could be worth a place…

champion chase:
hard to call as nicholls has two very good horses in master minded and twist magic but i still think that voy poy ustades can take it again this year but no guarenrees…its between these 3 imho…

sun allience chase:
albertas run was very impressive on his last run and will be gettin my vote with an e/w on lively joe

ryanair chase:
our vic is worth a place in this dont think he has the stamina to win it but youy never know…hard to call as there could be a lot of withdrawls…

world hurdle:
inglis drever should and probably will win this if he runs any kind of a race…although i think if alan king can get my way desolzen anyway right he could upset the odds as he loves cheltenham and has won around here at the last 2 festivals but has been disappointing this season but he is a bargain at 16-1 plus

franchoek should win it

gold cup:
KAUTO STAR KAUTO STAR AND KAUTO STAR and fuck the begrudgers

Finally a Cheltenham thread with a bit of sense. Good man Puke. I’d look outside the main chances in the Champion Hurdle for a bit of a value. Still havent nailed my colours to the wall. I had Sublimity at 16’s last year but couldnt back him again this year.

My main fancy was Oscar Dan Dan for the bumper but I doubt he’ll even travel now after a donkey of a race in Naas on Saturday.

I think Mossbank should have the Ryanair sewn up based on his run behind Denman in Leopardstown over Xmas. Hourigan has an awful record in Cheltenham though so that might open it up for the Listener but I think the ground might be too quick for him.

I’d agree with you about the Champion Chase. Voy Por Ustedes saved my Wednesday last year and while Twist Magic is a serious horse I think Alan King will have the champion primed for this one.

Cant see anything to touch Inglis Drever in the World Hurdle.

I’ll stay away from the front 2 in the Gold Cup and take a bit of each way value. Exotic Dancer loves the track but I’ll wait till closer to the day to see what nag will run into a place at 33/1 or higher.

Also for anyone who’s interested in the Dublin Area. We (Dublin Branch of Wexford GAA Supporters Club) are running a Cheltenham Preview Night tomorrow (Thursday 28th) night at 8pm in the Goat Grill in Goatstown. Panel is: Jim Bolger (MC), Ivan Yates, Tony Mullins, Denis O’Regan, Jimmy Barrett, Brian Flanagan. Admission is free and there’s a raffle on the night for an all expenses paid trip to Sunderland and tickets for Cheltenham. All funds raised on the night go to Wexford underage hurling. If anyone has any questions about it let me know!

That sounds good I might go along to that.

Mossbank’s preparations right on track
BRIAN O’CONNOR Racing Correspondent

CHELTENHAM BUILD-UP : THE RYANAIR Chase might be the race leading owner Michael O’Leary wants to win more than any other but that isn’t adding to the pressure Michael Hourigan feels in preparing Mossbank for the Cheltenham Festival.

Mossbank is currently a general 5 to 1 joint favourite with Our Vic for the day three festival feature which has been upped to Grade One status for the first time.

Considering the horse is owned by the Ryanair supremo O’Leary, and the race itself was O’Leary’s preferred festival option for War Of Attrition even up to just days before that horse won the Gold Cup two years ago, it could have been assumed Hourigan would be feeling extra strain on the run-up to Cheltenham 2008.

However, the Co Limerick trainer dismissed any idea of that yesterday and joked: “I hadn’t even thought of it!” Hourigan, who expects to have up to five runners at Cheltenham, added: "He has always been a very good owner that way. He just lets me to get on with the job, which is great.

“The main thing is the horse is giving all the right signs and there’s only a fortnight to go. We avoided running in the Hennessy, which I’m glad about because there’s no doubt he’s a better horse fresh. The ground should be better for him too. There’s usually lovely ground over there.”

Ireland’s most successful current Cheltenham trainer, Edward O’Grady, will delay finalising his 2008 festival team until after this Sunday’s post-race work-outs at Leopardstown.

O’Grady also wants to see how the festival handicaps start to shape up before naming the squad which is likely to be headed by the Champion Hurdle hope Catch Me as well as Clopf who is the shortest -priced Irish contender for the Arkle at a general 10 to 1.

Clopf will work out at Leopardstown on Sunday and O’Grady isn’t concerned that the horse fell at the final fence on his last start when set to win the Flyingbolt Chase at Navan. “He fell, but it wasn’t actually a fall in the sense that he hit the fence and capsized. He actually jumped it perfectly and slipped. It was like somebody pulled the rug out from underneath him,” he said yesterday.

“He has jumped well at home since. He will go to Leopardstown on Sunday and at the moment the Arkle is his preferred option,” added O’Grady who has yet to name a jockey for Catch Me in the Champion Hurdle.

Stable jockey Andrew McNamara has been released from the ride to team up with the Champion favourite Sizing Europe who he rode to victory in the AIG at Leopardstown last month.

Sizing Europe pleased his connections in a piece of work yesterday and trainer Henry De Bromhead reported: “He worked well so I’m really happy with him at the moment. It’s great to be involved with the favourite for the Champion Hurdle and we’re just waiting for the race.”

Noel Meade has not decided if his Grade One winner Aitmatov will run in the Champion Hurdle or wait instead for the Ladbrokes World Hurdle after a return to form behind Kazal in the Boyne Hurdle on his last start.

“We still haven’t decided but he’s a horse who will definitely be better on better ground,” Meade said. “It was much more like it the last day. Barry (Geraghty) got a run on us and we got caught out a little. But it was probably a very good run.”

Meade added that his top novice, Muirhead, will have two more bits of work before heading to Cheltenham, most likely for the Anglo Irish Bank Supreme Novices’ Hurdle for which he is a best priced 9 to 1 shot.

Perce Rock, a one-time leading fancy for the Arkle, features among the 12 entries for the novice chase at Leopardstown this Sunday and also among the 29 left in the Mick Holly Handicap Chase on the same card.

Both Paddy Power and Cashmans have announced they are adopting a “money back” policy on all ante-post bets for the 25 races for the Cheltenham Festival.

2008 The Irish Times

Pulled this from…ahem…another site

At this time of the year I believe you are better holding fire until the day especially in the handicaps.

In the meantime get the key stats to narrow down the big races. Stats are there to be broken but Cheltenham stats generally stand up.
Have a look at the Champion Hurdle stats and previous winners. I will follow up with some others later. You can get these on the Betfair forums.

YEAR FORM WINNER AGE SP Flat Chelt Form Fest Form Win Ratio
1991 12P1 Morley Street 7 4/1 no 415 45 65%
1992 211 Royal Gait 9 6/1 Group 100%
1993 223 Granville Again 7 13/2 no 21F22 2F 61%
1994 21131 Flakey Dove 8 9/1 no 741 7 34%
1995 1 Alderbrook 6 11/2 Group2 100%
1996 11 Collier Bay 6 9/1 Yes 44 4 62%
1997 20111 Make A Stand 6 7/1 Yes 5 80%
1998 1111 Istabraq 6 3/1 Yes 1 1 100%
1999 1111 Istabraq 7 4/9 Yes 11 11 100%
2000 1211 Istabraq 8 8/15 Yes 111 111 93%
2002 2331 Hors La Loi III 7 10/1 no 112P 12 40%
2003 1111 Rooster Booster 9 9/2 no 252111 1 26%
2004 2022 Hardy Eustace 7 33/1 no 12 1 40%
2005 2311 Hardy Eustace 8 7/2 no 121 11 44%
2006 11311 Brave Inca 8 7/4 no 13 13 57%
2007 1 Sublimity 7 16/1 Listed 4 4 40%

17 from 17 aged between 6 and 9 years
15 from 17 had a strike rate of 40% after their 1st win over hurdles (the 2 that didnt were both late developing NH horses )
20 from 23 winners had won last time out
The only horses to win with no form at Cheltenham were both Group winners on the flat
The last 9 winners all ran at a previous festival
14 horses had ran at Cheltenham with 11 winning the 3 that failed had not finished worse than 5th with 2 finishing 4th at a previous festival
All 69 5 year olds have been beat
Only 3 winners older than 8 since 1951

Based on these stats Sizing Europe is up against it with no festival form. Sublimity has it all to do as he did not win last time out. Age is against Katchit, etc.

Funnily enough the horse that gets all of the ticks is CATCH ME!

…And football Mac. Can’t forget the bogballers

Just reading on the betfair forum there that Mossbank might be aimed now at the Gold Cup. Exotic Dancer is doubtful at the moment apparently. If he’s pulled out it would leave Mossbank as third favourite for the Gold Cup. PP have him at 20/1 as do Boyles. If Exotic Dancer is pulled out his price will drop again. With non runner no bet now here he could be worth a punt in both the Ryanair and the Gold Cup. From the article above Hourigan hasnt ruled anything out.

Johnny Ward of the Sunday Independent is replacing Brian Flanagan on the panel of the Cheltenham preview in the Goat tonight.

How the heck did you find that out?
Yeah, Flanagans missus just popped a sprog.

Thanks to anyone who made it along last night Folks. Good to meet you as well Sledgehammer! Hope the ceann isnt too bad this morning.

Pounding. Cheers for the tickets for Sunday. Your brother’s a sound lad as well, I think he bought me another drink which I had to leave in the end. I’m sure we’ll meet again at some stage.

How did it go? Was it successful for you? Any interesting knowledge passed on?

Mac’s brother? Sound? First I heard of it!!! :wink:

As I was leaving he called me back and said-“100-1 on Inglis Drever not to finish”
Might take it.

Raised about 6k on the night and it all goes to Wexford underage teams. Fair play to Mac for all the organising.

Yeah he was looking for a price off Yates for Drever not to finish, the offer was derisory.

Bandage, the panel were in near total disagreement on most races, as it should be really.

The closest there might have been to consensus was on Noland I think. And if forpadydeplasterer runs, he’ll go close. But the price on him is well gone, I think he’s a general 9/2 now.

Yates will be having another Preview night in Dunboyne castle in the next week and he’ll have those prices on offer again. He has one in Whites Hotel in Wexford on Sunday night as well.

Sledgehammer - that Let Yourself Go horse I was talking about is down to run is a maiden hurdle in Navan tomorrow. He’ll probably be 1st or 2nd favourite but keep your eye on him. I’ll be backing him but I’ve yet to see him run so dont want to tip him.

[quote=“Sledgehammer”]Yeah he was looking for a price off Yates for Drever not to finish, the offer was derisory.

Bandage, the panel were in near total disagreement on most races, as it should be really.

The closest there might have been to consensus was on Noland I think. And if forpadydeplasterer runs, he’ll go close. But the price on him is well gone, I think he’s a general 9/2 now.[/quote]

Do you mean noland or paddy?

Celtic have the plasterer at 7/1 in a special today:

Edit: this horse is currently trading at 7.2 on betfair (6.2/1) - looks like Ivan is being very generous with the price for today.

Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup 3m 2 1/2f
14th of March 2008 3:15pm
Win or Each Way
Kauto Star @ evens
Ballymore Properties Novices’ Hurdle 2m 5f
12th of March 2008 2:00pm
Win or Each Way
Majestic Concorde @ 20 - 1
Queen Mother Champion Chase 2m
12th of March 2008 3:15pm
Win or Each Way
Voy Por Ustedes @ 7 - 2
Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase 2m 1/2f
14th of March 2008 4:35pm
Win or Each Way
Wanango @ 8 - 1

It’s only a dream I know but if this beauty does come in I’ll be up seven grand for my 2e yankee.
Kauto is as short as you get but I don’t think you’ll find a surer thing and there has to be one banker at least in every yankee.
Voy por Ustedes is a horse who loves Cheltenham and Alan King reckons he’s in great form.
Majestic Concorde is a tip from a distant family member who does pretty well with the gg’s.
Wanango is one Donn McClean reckons is due a super race and has been primed for it.
A long shot but who the fuck knows.

There is a preview on in the Grand Hotel Malahide tomorrow night at 8.00