World Cup betting tips from the Guardian. Any thoughts?
- England to go out in the Super Eights (1-2) and to win win under 5.5 matches (8-13).
Forget the deceptive signals from the CB Series: England are a painfully poor one-day side who historically struggle in the Caribbean (they have won just six out of 24 ODIs there). They had only one thing going for them - momentum - and they surrendered that against Australia on Friday. To win six matches overall they would have to win four out of seven against Test-class sides. Given that they’ve only managed two in the previous three World Cups, and are arguably a worse side now, that seems unlikely.
- Rana Naved-ul-Hasan to be the tournament’s top wicket-taker (50-1) each-way.
His form is poor (20-0-192-1 in the recent series in South Africa), and he might not even play, but if he does he becomes the value bet of the tournament. Since Rana Naved became a regular in Pakistan’s one-day side, on the eve of the 2004 Champions Trophy, he is the second-highest wicket-taker in the world behind the absent Brett Lee. Recent research also shows that he is the game’s most penetrative death bowler , when wickets fly around like confetti.
- Jerome Taylor to be the tournament’s top wicket-taker (40-1) each-way.
Taylor, one of the world’s brightest young quick bowlers, was the top wicket-taker at the Champions Trophy, the mini World Cup, and also has more wickets than anyone from the top eight sides in the last 12 months. As someone who usually bowls in the fertile periods at the beginning and the end of an innings, he represents outstanding value.
- Ian Bell to be England’s highest run-scorer (11-2).
Kevin Pietersen is the obvious bet at 5-2, but since Bell became a one-day fixture during England’s tour of India last year his total of 946 runs puts him almost 200 clear (Paul Collingwood, with 757 runs, is second). England’s old-fashioned tactics mean that Bell gets to bat in a bubble at No3, a rare luxury in a game where most batsmen have to go big from the get-go: he has reached 20 in 17 of his 26 innings since that breakthrough game in Jamshedpur, and is in fine form.
- Sanath Jayasuriya to hit the most sixes for Sri Lanka (1-2).
The surest thing since a teenage John Cusack went on the road in search of manhood: Jayasuriya is bang in form, a whirlwind among gentle evening breezes in the Sri Lankan batting line-up, and in the last 12 months his number of sixes (23) is more than three times the next-best (Farveez Maharoof, with seven).
- Jon Lewis to be England’s first wicket-taker (8-1).
He will almost certainly play, will certainly take the new ball if he does, and has been England’s most penetrative new-ball bowler in the last year. Conditions are different in the Caribbean, but 8-1 remains outrageously generous for a man who has taken England’s first wicket in seven of his 12 ODIs.
- Mark Boucher to hit most sixes (33-1) each-way and to score the fastest fifty (20-1) in the tournament.
At No6, Boucher is among the world’s best death-hitters and could have all sorts of fun against Scotland and the Netherlands in particular. In 2006 he smacked 16 sixes in 403 balls in one-dayers, a rate that few top players could match, and he also creamed a 26-ball 50 (and a 44-ball 100) against Zimbabwe. Nor does he only come off against poor sides: recently he took Pakistan for 78 off 38 balls.
- Rahul Dravid (33-1), Mike Hussey (40-1), Ian Bell (66-1), Mahendra Singh Dhoni (80-1) Dwayne Bravo (200-1) all each-way to be top run-scorer in the tournament.
An Indian has been the top run-scorer in the last three World Cups so the inevitable Dravid, top scorer in 1999, and Dhoni, the second in the ICC’s official batting rankings, are worth a look. Hussey is top of that list, albeit as much because of average than volume of runs, the case for Bell has been outlined above, and Bravo, an outstanding natural talent, sometimes bats in the top four and is a good outside bet.