Having had my ass handed to me on a plate by the bookies lately, I’m tentatively nibbling at the small fry this weekend.
Everton to beat the 'Ammers @8-11
Stoke to beat Blackpool @4-6
Brighton to beat Swindon @5-6
This treble returns 52.78 if you place 10 with the bookmakers.
Horrible set of Bundesliga fixtures this weekend. Leverkusen are away to Bayern, Stuttgart are at home but 2/5 and Hamburg are away in Wolfsburg. At the bottom Cottbus have already played and lost and Duisburg have only Hannover visiting.
I was about to make a case for backing Leverkusen at 5/1 away at Bayern but they’ve only ever one their twice and have lost 12 of the last 13 games there. Their leauge form is about even in the last 8 matches or so, despite the fact that Bayern are in a rocky patch and Leverkusen are on a smashing run. I’m finding it hard to not back Leverkusen because I’ve been bigging them up alot recently but it’s a no go.
So I’ve one bet this week from the BL which is Hannover at 6/4 in Duisburg. It doesn’t seem to matter to Duisburg where they play their games - they’ve won 8 points at home and 10 points on the road this season. There’s no reason to expect them to do anything other than lose to Hannover - a competent middle of the table side who tend to beat the teams below them and lose to the teams above them.
In Scotland Aberdeen are 4/6 at home to St Mirren. Aberdeen are very hard to judge - their league form is all over the place but they’re not a bad side when they play well. St Mirren on the other hand occassionally get the odd decent result but they are a poor side. Think it’s worth including in an accumulator somewhere.
Hibs are away to the huns and are 15/2. Hibs hate the huns and have a very decent record against them in recent years. The cup game between them a couple of weeks ago was a tight game that the huns edged but they’ve struggled since against Dundee United and Partick. Hibs have finally found some form, winning 6 of the last 7 games, and seem energised by Paatelainen since he took over. 15/2 is a smashing price and that’s my big bet of the weekend.
Dropping down a division Hamilton travel to bottom placed Stirling. Hamilton aren’t as impressive on the road where they have just under a 50% win record but Stirling have just under a 50% loss record at home. The Accies certainly benefit from having an artificial surface at home but they’re a good side and have won 2-4 at Stirling back in December. 4/7 is just about good enough.
Just a point of note - Fulham are 10-3 to beat Newcastle this weekend and the draw is 9-4. Fair enough, Newcastle are at home but they’ve only picked up 3 points or something stupid since Keegan took over. Fulham, while sheidt away from home usually are fighting for their lives and I think are worth a few quid with possibly the draw as a back up bet to cover the stake.
I’d also stick on the following treble
Aston Villa at home to beat Sunderland - 4/7
Reading to draw with Birmingham - 11/5
Leeds at home to beat Walsall - 10/11
Treble pays around 8.5/1
Haven’t been as confident about a football accumulator since my two unsuccessful midweek ones. This baby is a sure-fire 10/1 payer:
Chester v Darlington
Darlington @ 5 - 6
Aberdeen v St Mirren
Aberdeen @ 4 - 6
Partick Thistle v St Johnstone
St Johnstone @ 11 - 10
Everton v West Ham
Everton @ 8 - 11
I’m kicking things off with a tenner on Spurs.