OāBrien has put a serious wedge into this campaign. The word on the ground is that he has pumped a six figure sum into this campaign. Posters and banners everywhere, endorsements from current and former intercounty hurlers etcā¦
I think OāDonovan will get in. Neville to lose out, although heāll still get a get lot of Danās vote for the name alone. Could be tight for a finish.
Probably the most conservative constituency in the country - weāre like the red neck Republicans in Alabama. No female candidate (the only constituency in the country this time around I believe) and there has only ever been a non FG or non FF candidate elected on just a single occasion.
If Heffernan was with FG or FF heād have been elected a couple of times by now. There is just simply not a big enough Labour/anyone else vote in the area.
Iād well believe it, he must have 2/3 vans on the go covered with the full works. Whereās he getting the wedge from? The gravy train has been kind obviously.
From what Iāve heard heās a bit of a marmite figure even in his own parish.
He wouldnāt be short of a bob or two. Heāll get a big GAA vote, in fairness heād be a genuine supporter who would be at a fair amount of matches and not just the more glamorous ones.
Agreed. He is making no use of himself and if he had anything about himself he should be bang there with a chance. But he isnāt and it would be surprising if he got in. I thought he would get himself more exposure tbh. But heās a poor candidate, i have never been impressed with him at public speaking, he has never convinced me he is sharp enough for it and then he had that big ugly argument while with Labour with another Labour fella where they couldnāt share an office with each other and your man ended up catching Beefyās stuff and fucking it all out into the hallway. It doesnāt say much for his people skills that episode.
@TreatyStones regarding OāBrien i understand his van has been doing the rounds the last week or so in East Limerick and he is more visible about the place than the other candidates. I know of one lapsed forumite who along with his family are giving OāBrien first preference because āhe was a barristerā.
Everyone in the Smark family will be giving OāDonovan first preference, although my auld fella is playing hard ball at the moment he should come round by tomorrow. My biggest challenge now is getting to a Boylesports shop by tomorrow morning as really think 1/3 is worth a bet on OāDonovan but i am going to struggle woefully to make it to one as a bit busy all day and evening.
Kathryn Reilly is great odds at evens, I reckon she will definitely get in. I canāt see FG getting two in Cavan/Monaghan.
Conlan will probably take Humphreys across the line ahead of James OāReilly.
I also reckon Christy Burke will get in at 5/4. I saw Tony Gregoryās brother is on Burkeās election team and has had a few pops at OāSullivan who is running as āThe Gregory Candidateā, not a great endorsement for her
I think FG will fail to get a seat in Donegal, the landscape wonāt really have changed an awful lot up there since the last election, SF and FF will make small gains from the last election in their 1st pref % with Lab and FG taking small losses. Pringle should take the last seat.
They donāt need to be related in a causation way. Just in a correlation way.
If you think SF will get 20% for example then that means SF candidates have an improved chance and therefore you shouldnāt be able to benefit from multiplying odds.
Word on the ground here in Tipperary is that Tom Hayes is possibly in trouble tomorrow. I donāt have the interest in current affairs so Iām only going on what Iām told, by a fairly reliable source. Maybe if heās out of the equation thereās a decent bet to be made ?
A source tells me that he was the bookies today when a guy came in looking to put a large sum of money on Emmet OāBrien to top the poll in Limerick County, but they wouldnāt give him any odds.
I heard they reckon he could take up to half of Collins old votes.
Do you think OāDonovan will be beaten? That would be a major upset. He seems to have run a fairly low key campaign.
Neville will get in. Thereās a Fine Gael seat there but o Donovan has done next to nothing for the area. If I put my kneck on the line is go o Brien 1, Collins 2 and Neville a distant third. O Brien is good friends with Neville and theyāve been good on the local council by all accounts. O Brien is gunning for Collins as he screwed him a few years ago. Iām told o Brien spent up to 100k on his campaign.
