That last word speaks volumes hbv.
Heâs the biggest spoofer on here and that says a lot. Heâs highly insecure and gets a weird kick from taking an arbitrary stance to complete strangers on the internet just for the sake of it. I imagine he is a very unhappy person that he needs these little internet victories in his life. I suppose itâs better than him battering his wife and kids.
1 Like
Christ thats an extremely vile, personal and nasty post. Im not a bit happy about it.
So how did I do?
Carlow-Kilkenny (5)
Straightforward looking constituency and difficult to see any surprises. Most boring five seater in the country.
Order: McGuinness (FF), Phelan (FG), Funchion (SF), Deering (FG), Aylward (FF)
2 FG, 2 FF, 1 SF
5/5. Order of the elected almost correct, only for Aylward finishing 150 odd ahead of Deering. But both were elected on the same count.
Cavan-Monaghan (4)
Should be a very close battle between Joe OâReilly (FG) and Kathryn Reilly (SF). FG gene pool candidate Sean Conlan could upset FGâs plan for 2 here. Reilly (SF) is quite transfer friendly which may swing it for her.
Smith (FF), Humphreys (FG), OâCaoilean (SF), Reilly (SF)
2 SF, 1 FF, 1 FG
3/4. Smith (FF) got the final seat instead of Reilly who finished 6th. Humhreys and OâCaoilain finished ahead of Smith in the order.
Clare (4)
Harty has emerged as the strongest Independent and will be elected. Poll last week called a seat for SF but Iâm not so sure. I think the last seat will be either LAB or FG with whoever is behind electing the other on transfers. Gut feeling but Iâll go with McNamara (LAB) as he might be more transfer friendly overall.
Dooley (FF), Breen (FG), Harty (IND), McNamara (LAB)
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 IND, 1 LAB
3/4. Carey (FG) beat McNamara. Dooley topped the poll with Harty beating Breen in the order.
Cork East (4)
FG running three candidates here which is one too many. I think theyâll only get one elected. Despite chaos at local level I think Buckley can do just enough to hold the seat for SF. Sherlock to also hang on.
OâKeeffe (FF), Stanton (FG), Sherlock (LAB), Buckley (SF)
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 LAB, 1 SF
4/4. First three were elected on the same count (9) with the order of first preferences being correct.
Cork North Central (4)
SF have a good chance of bringing in two seats here. Last seat should be a battle between SF and IND socialist Mick Barry.
OâBrien (SF), Kelleher (FF), Murphy (FG), Gould (SF)
2 SF, 1 FG, 1 FF
3/4. Gould never got close to the last seat with Barry taking the second.
Cork North West (3)
Usually boring constituency but OâShea (IND) has a good chance of upsetting the second FG seat here.
Creed (FG), Moynihan (FF), OâShea (IND)
1 FG , 1 FF, 1 IND
2/3. FF2 narrowly held off OâShea for the last seat.
Cork SOUTH CENTRAL (4)
Iâve consistently called this seat for SF. In an urban four seater there has to be a left seat.
McGrath (FF), Coveney (FG), Martin (FF), OâLaoighaire (SF)
2 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF
4/4. Consistently right on the SF seat. Martin beat Coveney in the order.
Cork SOUTH WEST (3)
Daly (FG), Harrington (FG), Murphy-OâMahony (FF)
Boring blueshirt hick constituency, FG usually get two here and will again. FF to hold off various INDs for the last seat.
2 FG, 1 FF
2/3. IND hick beat FG hick Harrington.
DONEGAL (5)
FG look to be fading fast here, itâs never been a heartland for them. FF on the comeback trail. Gallagher (FF) wouldnât be running unless he thought heâd win. Should be an IND seat and Iâm gong with Pringle to hold as the most established one.
Doherty (SF), McConallogue (FF), MacLochlainn (SF), Pringle (IND), Gallagher (FF)
2 SF, 2 FF, 1 IND
4/5. FG un-faded just enough.
DUBLIN BAY NORTH (5)
Iâm going with the conservative reading of this constituency.
Bruton (FG), McGrath (IND), Haughey (FF), MacDonncha (SF), Broughan (IND)
2 IND, 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 FF
4/5. Correctly predicted there would be an SF seat, but the candidate.
DUBLIN BAY SOUTH (4)
Eamon Ryanâs poor poll performance is a surprise. While I would not write him off entirely, heâs in trouble. I think the FG vote will not stick with Creighton as expected. OâConnell is the sort of young, attractive candidate who will do well and attract non-FG transfers. Humphreys to just about hold based on the poll results.
Murphy (FG), Andrews (SF), Humphreys (LAB), OâConnell (FG)
2 FG, 1 SF, 1 LAB
2/4. Smart ballsy call to go for OâConnell ahead of Creighton proved a good one. The other calls werenât so smart.
DUBLIN CENTRAL (3)
Christy Burke could take this seat from Maureen OâSullivan but Iâm sticking with the established pattern. Costello (LAB) is toast.
McDonald (SF), Donoghue (FG), OâSullivan (IND)
1 FG, 1 IND, 1 SF
3/3. Order correct as well.
DUBLIN FINGAL (5)
LAB to hold on by the skin of their teeth.
Daly (IND), OâBrien (FF), Reilly (FG), OâReilly (SF), Ryan (LAB)
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF, 1 IND, 1 LAB
4/5. Like Dublin Bay North, on the money in terms of which parties would get the seats, but picked the wrong FG candidate.
DUBLIN MID WEST (4)
Looks to be two seats between FF, FG2 (Keating) and Kenny. Expect Curran to be well ahead of Keating on first preferences and that will make the gap unbridgeable. Kenny to scrape the last seat.
OâBroin (SF), Fitzgerald (FG), Curran (FF), Kenny (AAA)
1 FG, 1 SF, 1 AAA, 1 FF
4/4 and order correct. Local knowledge.
DUBLIN NORTH WEST (3)
First two are certain. Rock (FG) to hold off McAuliffe (FF) on LAB transfers.
Ellis (SF), Shortall (SOC DEM), Rock (FG)
1 SF, 1 Soc Dem , 1 FG
3/3. Shortall beat Ellis in the order.
DUBLIN RATHDOWN (3)
Alan Shatter to lose. Heâs never had a particularly high vote here even on good days for FG and appears to be behind his running-mate Madigan. Bookies say FG have two in the bag but Iâm not so sure. Three way battle for the last seat with Alex White (LAB) also being involved but Catherine Martin of the Greens can cause a shock.
Ross (IND), Madigan (FG), Martin (GREEN)
1 IND (Ross), 1 FG, 1 GREEN
3/3 and order correct. Not many were going for this result.
DUBLIN SOUTH CENTRAL (4)
Three way battle for last two seats. Eric Byrne (LAB) to lose out.
OâSnodaigh (SF), Byrne (FG), Collins (IND), Smith (PBPA)
1 FG, 1 SF, 1 IND, 1 PBPA
4/4 and order correct.
DUBLIN SOUTH WEST (5)
Think SF can get two here.
Murphy (AAA), Crowe (SF), Brophy (FG), Lahart (FF), Holland (SF)
1 FG, 2 SF, 1 AAA, 1 FF
4/5. Like Cork NC, SF never got near the second seat.
DUBLIN WEST (4)
Looks done and dusted. Burton has been disastrous.
Varadkar (FG), Donnelly (SF), Chambers (FF), Coppinger (AAA)
1 FG, 1 SF, 1 AAA, 1 FF
3/4. Lazarus-like comeback from Burton nobbled SF.
DUN LAOIGHAIRE (4)
Ceann Comhairle makes this an effective three-seater. Boyd-Barrett to top the poll. Hanafin, the cow, to sneak back in.
Barrett (automatic), Boyd-Barrett (AAA), Mitchell-OâConnor (FG), Hanafin (FF)
2 FG, 1 FF, 1 AAA
2/3. Hanafin challenge did not materialise.
GALWAY EAST (3)
Another boring conservative hick constituency with only the identities of the FG and FF TDs to be decided. Turncoat Keaveney to be chucked out.
Canney (IND), Connaughton (FG), Rabbitte (FF)
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 IND
2/3. Cannon beat Connaughton for the FG seat. Correctly predicted Rabbitte who was bookies outside against Keaveney for the FF one.
GALWAY WEST (5)
Three right, two left in my view. OâClochartaigh to hold off Nolan (LAB) and OâMahony (FG) by the skin of his teeth.
OâCuiv (FF), Kyne (FG), Grealish (IND), Connolly (IND), OâClochartaigh (SF)
1 FF, 1 FG, 2 IND, 1 SF
4/5. Four right, one left. Trev nudged out by FGâs Fraulein Hildegarde.
KERRY (5)
Healy Raes look to have decimated Ferrisâs vote here. Hard to see how heâll hang on even if it means Tralee has no TD.
M. Healy-Rae (IND), D. Healy Rae (IND), Deenihan (FG), Griffin (FG), Brassil (FF)
**1 FF, 2 FG, 2 IND **
4/5 Got the Healy Rae call bang on. Ferris the old sea dog held on and Deenihan lost in a surprise.
KILDARE NORTH (4)
Catherine Murphy will romp back in with a huge vote. Stagg to scrape back in.
Murphy (SOC DEM), Durkan (FG), Lawless (FF), Stagg (LAB)
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 LAB , 1 SOC DEM
3/4. FF2 beat Stagg.
KILDARE SOUTH (3)
LAB to hold off FF2 for the final seat based on Jack Wallâs personal vote legacy.
Heydon (FG), OâFearghail (FF), Wall (LAB)
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 LAB
2/3. OâLoughlin (FF) romped in and Wall lost.
LAOIS (3)
Yawn.
Fleming (FF), Flanagan (FG), Stanley (SF)
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF
3/3. Yawn. Nice to see to see Stanley officially get seat 2 ahead of Poppy Flanagan however.
LIMERICK CITY (4)
SF gain from LAB looks certain. OâDonnell should have enough to hold for FG.
OâDea (FF), Noonan (FG), Quinlivan (SF), OâDonnell (FG)
2 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF
3/4. Jan unseated OâDonnell. And Maurice beat Noonan in the order.
LIMERICK COUNTY (3)
Emmett OâBrien to be swept in on the Independent tide. Going for OâDonovan over Neville for the FG seat based purely on bookiesâ odds.
Collins (FF), OâBrien (IND), OâDonovan (FG)
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 IND
2/3. OâBrien challenge was weaker than expected.
LONGFORD-WESTMEATH (4)
While Boxer Moran is assumed to be in a battle for the last seat I think heâll do well across the board. Penrose hanging on but should hold off McFadden (FG) and Hogan (SF).
Moran (IND), Bannon (FG), Troy (FF), Penrose (LAB)
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 LAB, 1 IND
3/4. Another constituency where I got the right parties but wrong candidate. Burke, not Bannon, took the FG seat.
LOUTH (5)
Nash to be another high-profile Labour casualty. Definitely two SF seats here.
Adams (SF), OâDowd (FG), Bhreathnach (FF), Munster (SF), Fitzpatrick (FG)
2 SF, 2 FG, 1 FF
5/5. Exemplary vote management from Gerry saw SF get seats 2 and 3 rather than 1 and 4.
MAYO (4)
Ring and Kennyâs transfers to bring Mulherin over the line again.
Ring (FG), Kenny (FG), Calleary (FF), Mulherin (FG)
3 FG, 1 FF
3/4. FG vote management wasnât good enough and Chambers (FF) beat Mulherin.
MEATH EAST (3)
Byrne certain. McEntee to be the stronger FG candidate based primarily on her name and Dohertyâs vileness. OâRourke can take this seat for SF.
Byrne (FF), McEntee (FG), OâRourke (SF)
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF
2/3. OâRourke sadly failed to perform an act of Regina-cide.
MEATH WEST (3)
Looks obvious.
Toibin (SF), Cassells (FF), English (FG)
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF
3/3. Was obvious.
OFFALY (3)
Fitzpatrick to take a second FF seat. Leahy (RENUA) is bookiesâ favourite but Nolan (SF) will go closer than him in my view.
Cowen (FF), Corcoran-Kennedy (FG), Fitzpatrick (FF)
2 FF, 1 FG
2/3. Nolan was closer than close and took the seat ahead of Fitzpatrick and IND.
ROSCOMMON (3)
Naughten is FG gene pool and will take much of the FG vote, thus preventing Hopkins (FG) from taking the third seat. FG brand is toxic here. Roscommon is the kind of thick bogger county that will vote for a GAA player. Cake to take a seat.
Fitzmaurice (IND), Naughten (IND), Curran (FF)
2 IND, 1 FF
2/3. Right party, wrong candidate. Murphy (FF) took the last seat.
TIPPERARY (5)
Media campaign against Kelly to bring out the vote for him. Seamus Healy to be the one to lose out in a tight race.
Lowry (IND), Hayes (FG), Kelly (LAB), Cahill (FF), McGrath (IND)
2 IND, 1 FG, 1 FF, 1 LAB
4/5. Hayes (FG) the big loser and Healy held on.
SLIGO - LEITRIM (4)
Vote splitting among FGs could deny them a second seat but I think theyâll just hang on. Possible challenge from Casserly (IND).
Kenny (SF), McSharry (FF), McLoughlin (FG), Reynolds (FG)
2 FG, 1 SF, 1 FF
3/4. Vote splitting scuppered FG. FF nipped in for 2.
WATERFORD (4)
Think Halligan will top the poll here (15/8). Butler (FF) to beat Coffey (FG) for the last seat.
Halligan (IND), Deasy (FG), Cullinane (SF), Butler (FF)
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF, 1 IND
4/4. Butler topped poll however, not Halligan.
WEXFORD (5)
Howlin should have enough in Labourâs biggest banker seat. Tough call for the last seat here. Would be a hammer blow to FG to lose this one but I expect DâArcy to hang on.
Wallace (IND), Kehoe (FG), Browne (FF), Howlin (LAB) , DâArcy (FG)
2 FG, 1 FF, 1 LAB, 1 IND (Wallace)
5/5. Order a bit out with Howlinâs vote holding up well.
WICKLOW (5)
Donnelly to top the poll ahead of Harris. Timmins (RENUA) to be a casualty.
Donnelly (SOC DEM), Harris (FG), Brady (SF), Casey (FF), Doyle (FG)
2 FG, 1 SF, 1 SOC DEM, 1 FF
5/5. Largely on the money but Brady edged Harris by 21 votes on Count 2 and Doyle edged Casey by 100 odd.
Overall I got 130 out of 157. That increases to 135 if you count the constituencies where I got the party right but the candidate wrong. Highlights were the correct call on Renua getting no seat, predicting Alan Shatterâs loss, calling the Healy Raes to sweep Kerry, Cork East and Cork South Central, and my 14/14 clean sweep in the W constituencies.
OVERALL:
FINE GAEL 50 CORRECT
FIANNA FAIL 39 5 OUT ON THE LOW SIDE
SINN FEIN 29 6 TOO MANY
LABOUR 9 2 TOO MANY
ANTI-AUSTERITY ALLIANCE 4 ONE OUT ON THE LOW SIDE (including Brid Smith)
SOCIAL DEMOCRATS 3 CORRECT
GREEN 1 ONE OUT ON THE LOW SIDE
PBPA 1
RENUA 0 CORRECT 
INDEPENDENTS 22 ONE TOO FEW
8 Likes
Well done Sidney.
Excellent stuff, pal.
Informative and entertaining throughout the campaign.
Whereâs all those âdemise of Sidneyâ cunts now?
4 Likes
It was good for him to have a project, something for him to focus upon. A wonderful success all in all.
Has anyone in the media summed up the âclose-runâ seats to show the narrow losses for each party which will form the basis of targets next time out?
Need another project to focus on now but I donât know what itâll be. Iâd call it @ProjectX, only for me already finishing him off after the Pegida march.
2 Likes
Predictions for a possible Decemeber 2017/January 2018 election.
Carlow-Kilkenny (5)
2 FG , 2 FF, 1 SF NO CHANGE
Cavan-Monaghan (4)
1 SF, 2 FF, 1 FG NO CHANGE
Clare (4)
2 FF, 1 FG, 1 IND (Harty) FF GAIN FROM FG
Cork East (4)
FG 1 , FF 1, LAB 1, SF 1 NO CHANGE
Cork North Central (4)
1 SF, 1 FG, 1 FF, 1 AAA NO CHANGE
Cork North West (3)
FG 1, FF 2 NO CHANGE
Cork SOUTH CENTRAL (4)
2 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF NO CHANGE
Cork SOUTH WEST (3)
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 IND (Collins) NO CHANGE
DONEGAL (5)
2 SF, 2 FF, 1 FG, SF GAIN FROM IND (PRINGLE)
DUBLIN BAY NORTH (5)
1 FG, 1 SF (Mitchell), 1 FF (Haughey), 1 LAB, 1 IND (McGrath) LAB GAIN FROM IND (Broughan) - Three way battle for the last seat with McGrath, Broughan and OâRiordain. McGrath could take a kicking from the electorate but OâRiordain would be more likely to gain votes from Broughan.
DUBLIN BAY SOUTH (4)
2 FG, 1 GREEN, 1 FF NO CHANGE
DUBLIN CENTRAL (3)
1 SF, 1 FG, 1 SOC DEM SOC DEM GAIN FROM IND (OâSullivan) - Gannon (Soc Dem) has been quite high profile. He should have enough to take a seat.
DUBLIN FINGAL (5)
1 FG (Farrell), 1 FF, 1 SF, 1 IND (Daly), 1 LAB NO CHANGE - Lab under threat from FG or possibly FF, but might have enough to hang on.
DUBLIN MID WEST (4)
1 FG, 1 SF, 1 AAA (Kenny), 1 FF* NO CHANGE* - possibility Frances Fitzgerald could lose out but hard to see FG not get one seat.
DUBLIN NORTH WEST (3)
1 SF, 1 SOC DEM, 1 FF FF GAIN FROM FG - Can see McAuliffe (FF) take this ahead of Rock (FG).
DUBLIN RATHDOWN (3)
1 IND (Ross), 1 GREEN, 1 FG NO CHANGE
DUBLIN SOUTH CENTRAL (4)
1 FG, 1 SF, 1 IND (Collins), 1 FF FF GAIN FROM PBPA (Smith) - Smith beat FF by the skin of her teeth last time. Possibility FG vote could drop here - last seat will be close.
DUBLIN SOUTH WEST (5)
2 FG, 1 SF, 1 AAA (Murphy), 1 FF FG GAIN FROM IND (Zappone) - Zappone only scraped in last time - hard to see her hang on.
DUBLIN WEST (4)
1 FG, 1 AAA, 1 FF, 1 SF SF GAIN FROM LAB - SF should be much more organised than last time and Burtonâs profile has dropped. Sympathy vote got her over the line in 2016 and may not be in play this time.
DUN LAOIGHAIRE (4)
2 FG, 1 AAA (Boyd-Barrett), 1 FF FF GAIN FROM FG
GALWAY EAST (3)
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 IND (Canney) NO CHANGE
GALWAY WEST (5)
1 FF, 2 FG, 2 IND (Grealish, Connolly) NO CHANGE - SF nearly took one here last time. They could do it this time and in theory there should be two left wing seats, but FG vote management is good here.
KERRY (5)
1 SF, 1 FF, 1 FG, 2 IND (Healy Raes) NO CHANGE
KILDARE NORTH (4)
2 FF, 1 FG , 1 SOC DEM NO CHANGE
KILDARE SOUTH (3)
2 FF, 1 FG NO CHANGE
LAOIS (3)
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF NO CHANGE
LIMERICK CITY (4)
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF, 1 PBP PBP GAIN FROM LAB - Can see Cian Prendiville take a seat from Jan OâSullivan. FF running a second candidate will complicate matters as Willie OâDea is a huge vote getter.
LIMERICK COUNTY (3)
1 FF, 1 FG 1 IND IND GAIN FROM FG - IND failed here last time but FF vote could increase and deny FG a second seat this time.
LONGFORD-WESTMEATH (4)
2 FG, 1 FF, 1 IND FG GAIN FROM LAB - Currently no Longford TD so Bannon could edge the last seat ahead of Penrose (LAB) and Hogan (SF). Maurice McCabe running would seriously shake things up.
LOUTH (5)
1 SF, 2 FG, 1 FF, 1 LAB LAB GAIN FROM SF - Adams not running so SF could find it difficult to hold two seats.
MAYO (4)
2 FG, 2 FF NO CHANGE
MEATH EAST (3)
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF SF GAIN FROM FG - SF could unseat Regina Doherty who is a polarising figure.
MEATH WEST (3)
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF NO CHANGE
OFFALY (3)
2 FF, 1 FG, FF GAIN FROM SF - Fianna Fail will be more organised this time and take two, I think.
ROSCOMMON (3)
2 IND (Naughten, Fitzmaurice), 1 FF (Murphy) NO CHANGE
TIPPERARY (5)
1 FF (Cahill), 2 IND (Lowry, McGrath), 1 LAB, 1 FG FG GAIN FROM IND (Healy) - Lowry takes up much of the Fine Gael vote but FG could take one this time. Three way battle for the last two seats between Kelly (LAB), Healy (IND) and FG.
SLIGO NORTH LEITRIM (4)
1 FG, 1 SF, 2 FF NO CHANGE
WATERFORD (4)
1 FG (Deasy), 2 FF, 1 SF, FF GAIN FROM IND (Halligan) - Think Halligan might lose to FF here. Will be very close.
WEXFORD (5)
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 LAB, 1 IND (Wallace), 1 SF SF GAIN FROM FG - Hard to predict. In theory, there shouldnât be three left seats here, but Howlin is very established. Wallace will probably hold on despite his vote dropping last time, and might get the fourth seat. Huge battle for the last seat between FG 2, FF 2 and SF.
WICKLOW (5)
2 FG, 1 SF, 2 FF - NO CHANGE (but Donnelly who was Soc Dem is now FF). Donnellyâs vote is the wild card here. I think he has enough profile to survive his move to FF.
FF 51
FG 47
SF 25
LAB 6
SOC DEM 3
GREEN 2
SOLIDARITY/PBP 6
INDEPENDENTS 18
1 Like
@Sidney Ferris isnât running the next time AFAIK. Itâs largely a Ferris vote rather than a Sinn Fein one, so unless he can get the daughter to run (she refused the last time) they could be under pressure.
Arthur Spring (lab) could be the man to benefit as Ferris vote, like his, is NK based.
Jimmy Denihan could run again which would complicate matters. He was a surprise loser the last time out.
Will it not just be all Healy Raeâs returned ?
North Korea doesnât vote in Irish General Elections.
They could run a third one at this stage and get them in.
Jesus wept 
There was always a republican vote in North Kerry . The Hunger strike votes in 1981 give a fair indication . Sean McKenna got 3,800 votes in 1981 election .
There was always a republican vote in North Kerry, but never enough of one to get one elected. Labour, well actually the Spring family, held a seat there for 50 odd years before Ferris came along. Ferris himself wasnât elected at first time of asking.
There wasnât always a Republican party with over 20 seats to vote for.
Tralee alone should put whoever stands for SF over the top.