FF will get a seat in Galway East but it wonât be Rabbitte if they have a Bâsloe based candidate running with herâŚ
Ultimately - itâs gonna be a FF/SF gov, hard to see any other result. Watch both SF and FF deny it all the way through though âŚ
The gun will be brought back into Irish politics.
Itâll be interesting to see if SF have learned from their monumental fuck up in running three candidates in Donegal last time out. MacLochlainn addressed the work heâs been doing locally with his spare time so itâs be a shock if he didnât get back in without a 3rd candidate running.
Laois and Offaly are recombining to a form five seater. I presume this has been done in time for the election
Sinn Fein will lose the Offaly seat and keep the Laois one. FF and FG will retain a seat in each county.
There is a decision to be made on downgrading Portlaoise hospital before Christmas. This could shake things up but I donât see any surprises. SF have a small chance of pushing FG for the Offaly seat.
I heard some commentator last night saying that legislation hadnât been passed through yet
Really? Thatâs good news for Offaly. Laois and Offaly no change. FF will run hard against the SF candidate in Offaly but sheâs popular enough and should hold on.
Correct.
There will be no change in representation in Limerick City. I predict that Jan OâSullivan will hold on as sheâs a good constituency worker and has a decent personal vote. The only personnel change will see that gormless idiot Kieran OâDonnell take back the seat that Noonan is vacating. Willie and Maurice Quinlivan are safe out.
Out West Collins and OâDonovan will sail in. Collinsâ ego will cost FF as a second seat wold be very much in the offing if yer man had the balls to allow a second candidate run. Neville will be under pressure and Emmet OâBrien could be the beneficiary despite a disappointing showing last time out.
There are other constituencies gaining extra seats too, Iâm sure Dublin Central is going to a 4 seater.
If OâBrien has any brains heâll go back in under the FF umbrella. Lads like @TreatyStones will vote for him then regardless. Makes sense for FF too. OâBrien kills any chance they have of getting a second man in. Heffernan stole a fair few votes the last time but heâs gone AWOL since so theyâll be up for grabs.
1 Like
I presume its all under the same legislation so only happens if the Dail lasts long enough to pass it. Other legislation to be passed includes the Finance Bill (i.e. all the tax changes). The 8th Amendment would go out the window too - FF have already voted to not support an amendment so itâs hard to see them being in any particular rush to set a date for a referendum
Does an election have to be before Christmas? Can they not wait until February?
Interesting article here about it. Essentially, difficult to see to Feb unless Frances resigns.
1 Like
If they wait until February they wonât be able to get anything done in the meantime so whatâs the point? Also gives FF 3 months to attack the shit out of them at every conceivable opportunity.
January = biggest trolley month in hospitals .
Before Christmas for FG .
A lot of truth in that.
It just seems like a waste of a good election to have it in the week or two before Xmas when there are loads of other distractions.
I agree. Itâs prime drinking time for politicans too which might put them off. I think Frances resigns, we plod along and we have the election in Feb/March next year.
1 Like
No chance of any âthree wise menâ puns when talking about Irish politics, at least.
A long campaign killed Teresa May.