I have one bet on my mind at the moment.
MVP markets tend to skew heavily to quarterbacks.
Given that Green Bay are superbowl favorites at around 4/5 and that they have a heavy emphasis on the passing game I believe if they win Aaron Rodgers will be MVP.
So with that in mind Aaron rodgers 11/8 for MVP
Also in the market as a long shot, Tramon Williams 100/1.
Here is weird one for ye.
The NFC has won the coin toss in the Super Bowl for the last 13 years.
Team to Win Coin Toss
Pittsburgh Steelers
10/11
Green Bay Packers
10/11
I have seen some mug betting on here but betting worse that evens on a coin toss takes bating
CHARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRGE
13 years in a row.
Many people think it is rigged at this stage.
The chances of the NFC winning it all 13 years is over 8000/1
FFS. that might have been some use to us if you told us 13 years ago.
very unfair odds there
if the AFC have been beaten fair and square in the coin toss for the last 13 years i have no idea how they are 10-11 !!
surely they should be at least 5-1 outsiders
Gman, I expect if somebody did tip that 13 years ago they’d get torn apart and rightly so.
I’m not saying I’m going to bet on it. In fact I won’t.
I dunno whether you are being facetious or not Mickee.
But seriously, should the fact that the NFC have won the last 13 years affect the odds of a coin toss?
Its an age old statistical problem. If a coin is flipped heads 13 times in a row is it more or less likely to heads on the 14th time?
Answers on the back of a postage stamp.
Not knowing anything about throwball does the coin flip matter? Like if you were going to rig something wouldn’t you rig the ball with some sort of electronic control or something?
Lads,
Some background on basic probability theory for ye
When asked the question, what is the probability of a coin toss coming up heads, most people answer without hesitation that it is 50%, 1/2, or 0.5
we get this probability by assuming that the coin is fair, or heads and tails are equally likely
The probability for equally likely outcomes is: Number of outcomes in the event ÷ Total number of possible outcomes
For the coin, number of outcomes to get heads = 1
Total number of possible outcomes = 2
Thus, we get 1/2
However, if you suspect that the coin may not be fair, you can toss the coin a large number of times and count the number of heads
Suppose you flip the coin 100 and get 60 heads, then you know the best estimate to get head is 60/100 = 0.6
This way of looking at probability is called the relative frequency estimate of a probability
The interesting thing with this is that the more you flip the coin, the closer you get to 0.5
Number of coin tosses , # heads, prob to get heads
4, 1, .25
100, 56, .56
1000, 510 .51
10000. 4988, .4988,
Now,
For he last 13 coin tosses to get heads definitely indicates and obvious bias of sorts
I have discovered the following info ( before 2010 superbowl xliii
How many superbowls have there been : 43
How many times NFC won toss: 29
How many times AFC won toss: 14
How many times heads: 22
How many times tails: 21
Therefore
Number of coin tosses, # heads, prob to get heads
43, 22, 0.51
( this proves the coin is adhering to the data presented above whether forced or otherwise)
Number of coin tosses. # NFC, prob to get NFC
43, 29, 0.67
Taking all 43 games as one data set with no regard for the chronology of the distribution the NFC has a 67% chance of winning the toss based on data available
Conclusion:
The coin is biased to NFC 67%
]the bias is forced and adheres to the traditional spread of a 2 choice proability but the outcome is known in advance
FFS,
rocko,
is it posible to cut and paste excel into this format?
all my data is skewed above
Two problems with that Mickee.
2.For he last 13 coin tosses to get heads definitely indicates and obvious bias of sorts.
Incorrect Mickee. Its perfectly possible for 13 coin tosses in a row to come up. The chances of it being heads or tails are identical. If an infinitely large group of people tossed a coin forever then some of them will toss an unbiased coin heads a million times. Its unlikely but possible.
Besides I think its just the NFC have won the toss 13 times in a row, nothing about it being heads 13 times in a row. Therefore I refer you to point number one. The NFC captains
are just better at picking which side would come up i.e lucky.
should have had the sarcasm meter out there CLD.
how do you think the game will go anyway? any value bets? I see Powers have a refund on some bets if Starks or Mendenhall score the last TD.
First TD type, rushing - 17/10
Anytime TD, Jordy Nelson - 2/1
Halftime/fulltime leader, Green Bay Ht, Steelers Ft - 13/2
Just hope Green Bay win anyway, but just have a sneaky feeling about hte Steelers. They’re cunts in superbowls, getting things done. But at the same time, they have played shit teams in their last 2, and this is the first time they go in underdogs. They were overwhelming favorites the last 2 times and only scraped through and had the refs to thank against Seattle. Hopefully Green Bay will put them back int heir place.
maybe ive made a mistake i was was flying thru it
43 games
22 heads
21 tails
??
FFS - this is a thread for betting - not discussing fuckin coin toss possibilities.
Wales have drifted a bit with some operators. Boyles and Sporting Bet now go 15/8 which is interesting and worth a few quid.
mayeb u’d want to find out why they are drifting, that would be of more interest
See my post now Mickee. I was only starting the post when I accidently posted it
A number of other firms have cut them to 11/8 from the 6/4 & 17/10 they were last night.
:rolleyes:
Probability is the basis of all betting Mac, its important that lads understand it.
What do you base your betting on? Colours?
that is correct, there is no bias apparent
it may however be forced.
i,e,
the coin tosser ensure the outcome is biased but informs the NFC cpatain of the outcome
the tosser ensures tho that his bias fits the probability distribution to make is seem fair
there is one thing
1if you toss a coin repeatedly does not the person who calls the toss have a better chance at winning the toss knowing what the outcome of the previous toss was, given that we want to ensure the 0.5 probability remioans?
i.e there is a 50% chance it will be heads or tails so, in the 43 events , it will never be say heads for 4 years in a row, not to mind 2 for that matter ( data shows a 21-22 divide)
my guess here is that the NFC have the call on heads or tails first or at least have for the last 13 years
in order for the 0.5 chance to remain they must know the result of last years toss toss…
but then there is another question
if we need to ensure the probability remain at 0.5 over 43 events , does the person who calls first whilst knowing the outcome of the last 43 evenst have an unfair advantage?