Thatās some kick in the fanny for Samantha
Jamesie OāConnor in the front row there.
Weāre going to vacuum clean up the votes from gay Norwegian communists anyway.
Sweden have just had their national final and raging hot favourite Mans Zelmerlow has been beaten. Heās a previous Eurovision winner from 2015 and a big public darling in Sweden (Johnny Logan levels). His song was 5/2 fav to win Eurovision 2025 before it even got out of Sweden.
I think this song below that beat him will become a runaway train and win in Basel. It is very un Sweden like as it has a very original feel as opposed to the manufactured fare they normally send. Sweden have drifted now and are just over 5/1 on betfair but I think their chances have just increased with this choice. Iāve had a big bet on at 5/1, I could see this being around evens the day of the Eurovision final. Austria have leapfrogged them into favouritism tonight.
These are incredible times.
Liverpool are about to join Manchester United on 20 league titles each.
Celtic are about to join Rangers on 55 league titles each.
Carlton, Collingwood and Essendon are tied on 16 AFL premierships each.
And the big one. Sweden and Ireland are tied on 7 Eurovisions each. Sweden passing Ireland out once and for all would be an epochal development.
As a Liverpool supporter who lived through Manchester United going 19-18 ahead of Liverpool in league titles, I know how it feels to be Irish as Sweden prepare to dance all over our prostrate bodies and stamp our face in the dirt. Also, I am Irish.
Actually I donāt know how this feels. Like the not unexpected death of a loved one, you always think you are prepared, but you never are.
This will cut deep if it happens.
That Swedish song wasnāt great at all.
We might be safe for another year.
That Portuguese lad got a grand reaction from the crowd.
This Norwegian song has to have been created by ChatGPT itās so utterly generic.
Italy are winning this Saturday night.
I posted two months ago that Sweden were a great price at 5/1 and could see them about even money the day of the final. They are now 5/6 a few days out. I think they are a touch short now albeit itās very hard to see who beats them.
A song has come out of left field and thatās Switzerland, they are 33/1 with Boylesports each-way 4 places and I think this can build momentum all the way between here and Saturday and could be one to collapse in the odds over the coming days and become a key challenger to Sweden on Saturday night. It is extremely unusual for the hosts to send something this good and it didnāt register as a contender on radio but they have done something quite special on the staging that stands as being in a class of its own. This will go down a treat among the juries (music professionals) and will challenge for the lead at the half way point before we head to the public vote. They have a late running order in the public vote (19 of 26) so that will help from a recency bias stand-point when people are reaching for the phones to vote. I recommend an each-way bet (4 places) at 33/1.
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The Dutch lad has tried to rip off that Lykke Li song that goes āah ah follow, Iāll follow you deep sea babyā. I canāt remember the actual title of it.
Itās shit but at least he tried to rip off a decent sing so a vote for that.
Even by Eurovision standards the 15 songs competing tonight are as bad as Iāve ever heard.
The presenters are doing a bang uo job though and that was a pretyy good interval act with Petra Mede making an appearance.
Paddy Power have pushed Switzerland out to 45/1. Thatās great odds and I donāt see it lasting or getting better between here and Saturday. The other outsider I like is Finland at 25/1 which is also worth an each-way bet with 4 places. It closes the semi final Thursday and ought to bring the house down. I think this will gather momentum and shorten up later in the week. Itās now about anticipating who is the one for late momentum.
Are the Israelis likely to rig the public vote again and get favourable votes from the sympathetic countries around Europe?
Unlike last year public sentiment has done a 180 against them and Iād be surprised if they can āfixā the vote, although you canāt rule out attempts to bribe jurors and manipulate the televote (which they did so successfully last year). I feel as though any attempt to do so will fall short but who knows, I wouldnāt put my life on them not winning it. If they do itās due to total and widespread manipulation on their part.
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Thereās basically no difference in public sentiment towards Israel anywhere in Europe to what it was this time last year.
Id say there is.
Iād strongly venture the amount of people in Europe that have changed their sentiment towards Israel in the last year is well under 0.5% of the population and probably under 0.1%.
It was already utterly overwhelmingly obvious at this time last year that Israel is a nation of genocidal fascist butchers. To say otherwise is to somehow imagine that this story was not front and centre in world news coverage. The reality is that the genocide has faded from world news coverage in the last year, itās not nearly as front and centre now as it was this time last year.
Indeed last year there was a much more high profile anti-Israel move within the contest. This year their participation has been normalised with everybody else basically resigned into their participation and only a few countries offering the merest tokens of disquiet.
The idea that people didnāt know what Israel were doing last year but somehow do now is utterly ludicrous.
Thats not the idea though. The idea is that they were given more of a pass because of their history of persecution, that people felt powerless to stop them but hoped they would stop.
A year later, even those who hoped they would stop can see their barbarism for what it is. That it is ethnic cleansing and genocide. Trump has been elected and theyve gone into overdrive in their killing. They (the public) still feel powerless to stop it. But Iād argue that the public now around europe are much more anti israel broadly than they were a year ago.
Weāre up soon in Semi Final 2.
Marty is already on fire
Thatās the first time Iāve heard the Irish song properly.
Itās good.
Was there any actual Irish input into it though?