For the first time in his professional career, Rafael Nadal’s status as the king of clay is in doubt. The reason for that is of course the huge stride forward that Novak Djokovic has made this year. Unbeaten in 2011, with one Grand Slam and four Masters events under his belt in that time, he has beaten Nadal in two consecutive clay court finals, and in four finals in total this year. In spite of this, Nadal’s fearsome reputation on clay is such that he is going into Paris as the even money favourite. Given that he has only been beaten once in six events at Roland Garros, it is easy to understand why this is the case. However, given the extent of Djokovic’s superiority in the final in Rome last week, I think he will have the mental edge should they meet again in the final, as they are very likely to do.
The draw was made yesterday.
The top quarter throws up the potentially most interesting quarter final, where Nadal is seeded to meet the only man that has ever beaten him in this event, Robin Soderling.
Andy Murray seems to have a nice draw on paper, and I would expect him to come through to meet Nadal in the semi. Nicolas Almagro would probably me the most likely player to trouble him within that quarter.
In the third quarter, legend of the game Roger Federer, who has undoubtedly been showing signs of fading this year, is seeded to face David Ferrer in the quarters, and I would think that the Spaniard would be more than capable of taking him out at that stage. Federer will likely face a tough test from either his compatriot Stanislas Wawrinka or home favourite Jo-Wilfired Tsonga before then.
The bottom quarter throws up the only potentially mouth watering clash of the first week. Djokovic is due to meet 2009 US Open champion Juan Martin Del Potro in the third round. Having missed most of the 2010 season and a bit more of the 2011 season with injuries, Del Potro is a lowly 25th seed. But make no mistake, he is a much better player than that and in the medium term is likely to be a one of a triumvirate at the top of the men’s game alongside Djokovic and Nadal. However, he’s probably not yet had enough games back since his injuries to seriously bother Djokovic in the form he is at the moment. Djokovic has definitely got the hardest side of the draw though, as he could meet Richard Gasquet in the fourth round and Tomas Berdych in the quarters. Flaky would be a good way to describe Gasquet, but at his best his backhand is probably the most beautiful shot in tennis at the moment and if he gets going and gets the crowd behind him he could be dangerous.
In summary, I expect Nadal to beat Murray in one semi-final, and Djokovic to beat Ferrer in the other. I wouldn’t try to predict the outcome of that final yet.
PS I know Rocko is the forum’s accepted authority on all matters relating to the French Open. I hope he will forgive my impudence in opening this thread.
Djokovitch in fairness to him has been nothing short of amazing this year but a final v Nadal over 5 sets on King Rafas beloved Roland Garros clay might be what catches the Serbian out this time. Any possible fatigue on his part should be offset by the prospect of beating John McEnroes match winning start to a season record of 42, Djokovitch currently stands at 37. Nadal will be a different kettle of fish in Paris than he was in Madrid or Rome though and I think he can grind the Serb down in what could prove to be an epic Final.
Novaks great form has the added bonus of keeping Rafa odds against for this and betting types are sure to take notice. Even money on a Nadal/Djokovitch Final is also tempting but can be resisted bearing in mind the Serbs tough draw. Big odds for Roger Federer here should also be resisted as any revival from him this year is much more likely to occur at Wimbeldon than RG.
Prediction King Rafa to reign supreme once again B)
Fairly low-key start so far today. Cilic lost, though I wouldn’t have been expecting much from him on clay anyway. Ferrer was impressive in dispatching of Jarko Niemenen from the bit I saw of it.
Not sure how interesting a tournament this will be. Looks like the finalists are nailed on. Muz will probably get to the semis. I wouldn’t be overly surprised if Federer gets knocked out before the semis. If we do get the Nadal-Djokovic final, at least that will be interesting.
As my superb preview of the tournament in the opening post suggests, there are a limited number of potentially interesting clashes before what seems to be the inevitable Nadal-Djokovic final. Amazing really that Nadal has made it to the five Masters event finals this year, and Djokovic has won the four of them that he has entered.
Almagro lost today, further easing Murray’s path to the semi-final. Melzer is left as the most likely to stand in his way. It was looking like a path to the final might be opening up for him when Nadal was trailing and Soderling dropped the second set of his match.
Don’t really follow the women’s but nice to see Clijsters getting beaten here. Her opponent has hit only 7 winners and is 4-1 up in the third. Clijsters has 60 unforced errors. Shows what a jokeshop the women’s game is that Clijsters, Henin and the Williams brothers can kinda just dabble in it and win majors. Then you’ve bottlers like Ivanovic and Janckovic, and Wozniacki topping the rankings despite not winning a Grand Slam yet. To think these donkeys get paid the same as men makes by blood about 75 degrees centigrade.
I think this tournament is the test to see if Wozniacki has what it takes to win a slam. With Clijsters gone and no Williams men to be seen, her only real competition is Schiavone.
How dare you tell lies about the very very lovely 2008 French Open champion Ana Ivanovic. On a point of honour, I feel as though I must demand an apology on behalf of the lady that I frequently masturbate to.
