With two games to go before the Winterpause the traditional crowning of Herbstmeister in the Bundesliga has already been decided. Borussia Dortmund recorded their 6th win in a row in all competitions and extended their lead at the top of the table to 10 points in the process.
Jurgen Klopp’s team have been progressing steadily in recent seasons with last season’s fifth spot being their highest placing in 8 years. The centre half pairing of Subotic and Hummels has always looked like developing into the solid partnership it is today and is the foundation of this title bid. 9 goals conceded in 15 games is a significantly superior record to any other team in Germany and only Barcelona have a superior record in the major European leagues.
The real stars of the show for Dortmund so far have been in midfield however. Nuri Sahin has matured into a world class midfielder with a wonderful array of passing and is currently the leading player in influential publication Kicker’s rankings. Shinji Kagawa was a low profile signing from Japan in the summer and has chipped in with 7 league goals and much more in general play from an advanced midfield position. Sven Bender has replaced the injured captain Sebastian Kehl and has probably improved the team if anything.
Lucas Barrios is top scorer with eight goals, a relatively modest return, but he has proven to be a very effective lone striker in Klopp’s conservative formation. Near-neighbours and bitter rivals Schalke 04 spent significant money acquiring the far more celebrated strikeforce of Raúl and Huntelaar but Barrios has outscored both so far. Robert Lewandowski has scored 5, mainly from the bench, but the one area where Dortmund lack real depth is in alternative attacking options.
History favours the prospects of the side leading the table at the mid-winter break with 67.4% of those teams going on to winning the title in the summer. Recent trends have not been kind to the tabletoppers at Christmas however. Leverkusen dropped to fourth last season and Hoffenheim plunged even further to seventh after crushing all before them in the first half of the 2008/09 season. In fact since 1998 only Werder Bremen and Bayern Munich have managed to hold onto a mid-season lead by the season’s end.
That trend looks like halting this year as Dortmund are enjoying a very comfortable lead over second placed Mainz. Indeed the former European Champions will take comfort in the fact that only Leverkusen and Bayern Munich from the top 8 have the pedigree to be realistic title contenders. The rest of the the teams in contention for European places reads more like a list of relegation candidates: Mainz, Hannover, Freiburg, Hoffenheim, Eintracht Frankfurt. This is Dortmund’s title to blow now.