I think it will be a Fianna Fil - Labour coalition, possibly without Rabbitte, perhaps with Howlin in charge. I think and hope that the PDs will lose seats, I don’t see Fine Gael doing anything special and Fianna Fil still have too many loyal voters to be voted out of power by any other combination, especially since nobody else would rely on Sinn Fin for support.
I’m hoping for a Clare Daly seat in Dublin North and a few more Greens and independents (who will remain independent) to get elected across the country. The balance of power being held by Joe Higgins and Clare Daly would be excellent - we might then see real social change. I’d settle for a cabinet porfolio for the Green Party though - transport or environment.
I would agree with you Rocko that a Fianna Fail Labour coalition seems like the only one where the numbers would stack up. Fianna Fail have about 80 seats at the moment and are certs to drop by about ten seats. What is it for a majority, 84 or so I think? That means the PD’s will not have the numbers to make up government.
However the past has shown us that a Fianna Fail Labour coalition is unlikely to work. Having read Fergus Finlays book recently about the last coalition with Spring and Reynolds there is a deep mistrust of FF within the Labour Party.
I saw Dermot Aherne on Q&A on Monday night absolutely rule out a coaltion with Sinn Fein. I hope that remains the case as i would hate to see Sinn Fein within an arses roar of Government.
What is the fixation with Independents holding the balance of power Rocko, having gobshites like the Healy Rae’s of this world holding a government to ransom isn’t exactly ideal. All that would achieve would be to allow drink driving from their pub in the arse hole of Kerry!
Yeah 84 is a majority - though it depends on whether you want to have the Ceann Comhairle as well.
I don’t know how successful a Labour - Fianna Fil coalition would work but if it becomes mathematically inevitable then I don’t see what else would happen. They are broadly ideologically compatible, moreso than FG/Labour, so there’s nothing to prevent it other than mistrust and past experience. I’m not trying to make light of the feelings in the Labour Party and they have every right to be weary of FF but I don’t see them turning their back on coalition if they’re given the opportunity.
A coalition with SF is highly unlikely but there is an outside chance that FF might rely on them for support in exchange for some policy compromises, without going into government together.
My hope for independents isn’t for the likes of Healy-Rae who is aligned to FF anyway. I’m talking more about Tony Gregory, Finian McGrath, Joe Higgins (though he’s Socialist Party). As I’ve said on here before there are too many TD’s from the main parties who tow the party line. We had a ludicrous situation on the Nice Treaty where nobody from the biggest parties campaigned for a no vote, yet over half the population voted against it.
If we had a referendum on the Iraq war it would be the same. Elected representatives afraid to voice their own opinions - it sickens me.
Ah people recognised their mistake on Nice the first time and voted accordingly the next time.
From a personal opinion i wouldn’t like to see Independents holding the balance, i think they just obstruct the business of government usually for very parochial gains such as Tony Gregory when he supported Charlie. For a parliament to function properly there needs to be some degree of uniformity. Its harsh to say most TD’s are afraid to speak out. They can air their views within the party.
Also wouldn’t like to see the mess of the country the likes a Joe Higgins would make. While a social conscience is needed within a country Irelands success has come from FDI and that wouldn’t be helped by the likes of Joe Higgins and Sinn Fein calling for hikes in Corporation taxes.
Do you honestly believe every TD from Fianna Fil, Fine Gael, Labour and the PDs was in favour of ratifying the Nice Treaty? They were:
a) massively out of touch with the majority of the population or a huge part of the minority or afraid to speak their minds or
c) a combiantion of both (most likely).
Whatever happened the second time is besides the point - I’m not questioning the result or advocating a position for or against the Nice Treaty. I’m merely pointing out that the TDs were not representative of the public then because their opinions were dictated to them by leaders. That’s not democracy - that’s abandonment of responsibility.
Your second paragraph reads like an advertisement for a fascist state. I cannot believe that you could genuinely believe a unified or uniform parliament is necessary for its proper function. We don’t elect these people to sit beside eachother, nodding in agreement and acquiescing to other people’s decisions. They are there to argue, debate, rationalise and decide and if you are not vocal in the Dil then I simply don’t believe you’re doing your job properly. A parliament without disagreement is exactly what one might expect to see in a dictatorship. My ambitions for this country are a little loftier that that.
Also Tony Gregory achieved tremendous gains for a poverty-ridden constituency during his time in power. I have the utmost respect for what he achieved and it’s a hell of a lot more than anyone ever did for my constituency - GV Wright, Ray Burke: corrupt bastards who were plenty loyal to Fianna Fil but all they wanted was a few pieces of silver. To suggest that Gregory was disruptive when the Taoiseach at the time was thieving thousands of pounds from a struggling economy is outrageous. Look at the bigger picture.
There is no danger of Socialist Party being in government or dictating economic policy so I wouldn’t be too concerned about their fiscal policies. I would be supportive of their ideas though but this isn’t the thread to discuss them - it’s more of an ideological question, than a political discussion.
Let me just say once again, for clarity, I think it’s really rich to criticse Gregory’s “parochial” attitude when he was working for the betterment of Ireland’s poorest constituency. The major party in power have proven to be corrupt bastards at that time and you think Gregory was obstructive.
Cullyeile makes a good point about TDs aligned to parties having to tow the party line. Its alright for independents to basically do what they want which is why they come across better. Is there anything to be said for doing away with party politics altogether? Can you imagine the conflict?
I don’t necessarily agree on the Nice treaty - I think the second time around people voted yes because they knew that if they didnt then they would have to vote again on it in a year. It was a joke from start to finish. You had the situation of a democracy being abused by making us vote again on it.
For the record I cant see FF and Labour going together. I think it is going to be FF/PD/independents. I think the Greens may have a vital role to play to make up the numbers between FF/PD or FG/Labour - think they have avoided FF in the past?
Just saw Rocko’s reply there - me thinks he’s angry…
Read a bit more carefully Rocko…" a degree of uniformity". I am not advocating everyone sitting together agreeing. That is why we have more than one party with different views and policies and the ability to express their views and question decisions of the Government. As Farmer said could you imagine the ruck if we had 166 independents all trying to have their say.
Also do you think Tony Gregorys constituency was the only poverty ridden constituency in the country in the 80’s? It wasn’t the only place that needed a cash injection
Angry alright. I have no problem with people voting for who they want to and for whatever reasons but please let it not be so that politicians won’t get in the way of progress. As I said on the Moriarty thread I cannot think of a more spineless parliament than ours. You don’t get backbench rebels in this country. When you look at Robin Cook and the likes in the UK who stand up to be counted for their principles and compare that to the deafening silence from nearly all the politicians here.
Just to prove I’m not a slave to my own ideologies on this one I’ll say that someone like Michael McDowell, though I cannot stand him, is at least honest and forthright in his opinions. I hate the man but I have to concede that he always speaks his mind.
Well if you think one dissenting voice in government is too disruptive then how much uniformity are you saying we should have? A “degree of uniformity” is all fine and well but you think one man was too much. Should we have half a TD as a token objector?
I didn’t argue for the elimination of party politics - I am saying that the TDs that are aligned to political parties should not be slaves to the leaders of that party. There’s not much real difference to Fianna Fil and Fine Gael so how can they possibly be honest when lining up against eachother the whole time. I don’t think it is right that we just have different parties who argue against eachother - you need people thinking for themselves not for the party.
Was Tony Gregory the only politician representing a poor constituency? No. Was it the most impoverished constituency at the time? Probably. Did any TD from Fianna Fil bother to do anything about this or did they just agree with everything their party did? They all sold out the people they were representing and Gregory did not. It was precisely because Gregory was the only politician that achieved real progress that I’m praising him. It’s not because his constituency was the only poor place in Ireland - it was because he was the only TD with the balls to do something about it.
No. Crooks and criminals Farmer. Bad for business too, they’d tax the sh!t out of affluent f**kers like me and you. SDLP does me fine thank you very much.
True Farmer, but let’s not forget that the vast majority of the population of this island are lack intelligence, the more people I meet the more this is emphasised to me. How else would one explain the fact that the biggest selling newspapers in this country are the The Star and The Sun.
Its unfair to discount their mandate on the basis that some of the people who vote for them may lack intelligence. I must admit that I do find it strange and slightly hypocritical that Bertie is forcing them into power in the North but will not have them in power in the South.
I suppose that in the North they are part of the problem so they must be part of the solution - not the case in the South. Anyone else have views on this?
I don’t think they are being “forced” into power in the six counties - they have a very large minority of the votes. If there was no Good Friday Agreement I’m sure there would just be a DUP/UUP coalition and that’s how the place would be run. That can’t happen anymore so it will always be the larges unionist and largest republican party in power. The Agreement is strucutred that way and everybody signed up to that.
Going forward it will be more of a problem - you cannot have a country run indefinitely on historic divisions. It would be like the Irish constitution saying that FF and FG must share power after every election. It’s fine in a conflict resolution environment but ultimately full democracy must be rolled out.
Bertie said in his interview last week that he couldn’t go into government with Sinn Fin for economic policy issues. Obviously their past plays a part but in order to avoid accusations of hyporcrisy he was suggesting that Sinn Fin are not fiscally compatible with FF.
is there a reason why people are ignoring the sadaam thread? Is it because they dont agree with the execution or is it anti American sentiment? Rock, help me out here
Irish Times poll this morning makes for very interesting reading.
State of the Parties:
[list]
[]Fianna Fil 37%
[]Fine Gael 26%
[]Labour 11%
[]Sinn Fin 9%
[]Green Party 8%
[]PDs 1%
[*]Independents/Others 8%
[/list]
The most obvious commentary to make is to point out the 1% support for the PDs which must be very worrying for them. The Green Party have doubled their support from 4% to 8% (overtaking Labour in Dublin) and Sinn Fin have increased by 2% (possibly as a result of their Ard Fheis last weekend).
The FF/PD coalition now totals 38% while FG/Labour is at 37% which would give a balance of power to the Green Party and/or the independents/Socialist Party etc. Finna Fil will traditionally convery 37% of the votes into more than 37% of the seats available so it’s not as bad for the government as it appears at first glance. That said I’m sure they’ll be worried at the collapse in support for the PDs which is fine in a poll but if that continues into the election then FF will be looking for someone else to do a deal with.
I just think they’d go in with a combination of Greens and independents/socialists ahead of Sinn Fin. SF also have a tougher bargaining strategy than the Greens would. If the two alternative governments were neck and neck then the Greens could effectively name their price in conjunction with independents like Finian McGrath, Tony Gregory and Joe Higgins etc. They’d be able to negotiate with either side and could effectively say “Well FF promised us 1 cabinet place will you give us 2?”
SF won’t have the same clout, it’s hard to imagine that FF will go in with them ahead of trying all strategies with others first. It could well happen that SF are needed by FF but it’s more likely to be greens + independents I reckon.
afraid to speak their minds or