Slab Murphy is it?
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Ivan Yates was on earlier in the week saying he felt there was a chance Fine Gael would not get a seat, if its as bad a day nationally for them as some of the recent opinion polls are indicating. I’d say Verona is cannabalising a lot of the Fine Gael vote in the south of the county.
I wouldn’t say that poll is very scientific at all. I’d say Mythen and Verona will be battling for the last seat.
She got nearly 1 in 4 first preference votes for Mick Wallaces old seat a few months ago. Its just a question of whether they can tolerate her outspoken controversial views on deprogramming Muslims more than Paul Kehoes arrogance and running the defence forces into the ground.
That was when she ran as a Fine Gael candidate though. Although I do believe she will now pick up a lot of votes for leaving Fine Gael. She’s hilarious, she has got absolutely no manifesto whatsoever, keeps going on about “a fearless woman” and “if you want real change”. But says absolutely fuck all of any substance whatsoever. Change, change, change. She is also using her Fine Gael posters all over the place from the last election, either with the bottom part of fine gael cut off or a sticker over the fine gael logo. One of her campaign team was onto a local Neighbourhood watch page to fine out who was taking down her posters and that they would put two back up for every one that is taken down. Wexford Corporation did a nice one on her poster campaign as well. I dont know how you could vote someone who put a sign up in every village in the county and managed to not be able to spell “its” on every single one of them.
I think the absolute saturation of posters and shouting “change” the whole time will get her a lot of votes. It wouldnt be my way of thinking, but if people in the south of the county wanted a TD elected to have decent representation in government, they should vote Michael Sheehan of Fianna Fail.
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On paper if Malcolm takes a seat (and the talk quite apart from this poll is that he’s strong) conventional thinking would be that D’arcy should be goosed because there’s no way Gorey can elect two TDs. Kehoe though likely to be more impacted by the rise of Mythen in Enniscorthy and Verona further South West and it may be that Kehoe falls behind D’arcy in the count and on elimination ends up giving Gorey an unlikely second TD.
The difficulty with all this, as has been the case since 29 November four of the five seats are in Gorey and Enniscorthy. That’s a big population – about 40% of the county – with just one TD. James Browne will probably take a good chunk of the Fianna Fail votes further south but 4-1 looks an unsustainable skew. If the outgoing Fianna Fial duo hold on as expected this would see Sheahan in New Ross going out and some of his votes will surely stay local with Verona. The question then is the order of elimination.
In addition to the North/South split, Enniscorthy has a good record of electing two TDs but three would be a push. This would mean either Kehoe or Mythen but not both making it. Looks to me that, if the two FF TDs return, this means either Verona unseating D’arcy or Mythen unseating Kehoe. If it’s the latter though this still leaves an imbalance in the north/south divide.
I’d wonder as well if Sheahan is being written out of this too soon.
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Darcy is apparently the FG representation for the south area. how that works I dont know, but seemingly so. I think if FG are to hold a seat, it will be with Darcy. I think Kehoe will lose out. If I were to guess, I think it will be Howlin, Browne, Byrne, Darcy and Mythen, with Verona going closer than Kehoe. The only thing about Verona is that I think she will not get many transfers, she needs a huge first round vote to keep her in with a shout. I think the north south divide will remain and be even more prominent to be honest. I dont think Sheehan will poll great, nor Lisa McDonald. I think Sheehan will lose a lot of votes to Verona and may be eliminated himself first before he gets a chunk of transfers.
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Harris is safe
Great to see Pauric Lodge below in Laois for the count, the Lodge family are steeped in Laois politics
He will transfer well from women whose higher preferences will be on the left. The eye-roll lives long in the memory.
I did that which candidate thing and it matched me with Cian O Callaghan
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Will there be a TFK moratorium ?
A half arsed measured that was easily skirted around (and was)— did fuck all for new renters or people who had to move
I did two different ones and each had me 1 Green 2 Labour and that’s how I’m voting.
You’re right about the new renters bit. But that was well known about rent restriction laws.
No sign of it. There was supposed to be one final one last night and there wont be one now.
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The Cuala full back ???