Predict the outcome for constituencies you’re familiar with:
Dublin North
4 Seats:
Sargent
Kennedy
Reilly
Daly
Dublin North East
3 Seats:
Broughan
O’Toole
Brady
Dn Laoghaire
5 Seats:
Hannafin
Cuffe
Gilmore
Barrett
Andrews
‘Dublin’ North:
Sargent
Daly
Reilly
Kennedy
Meath East:
Dominic Hannigan
Shane McAntee
Mary Wallace
Louth:
Dermot Ahern
Mairead McGuinness
Fergus O’Dowd
Arthur Morgan
Overall party predictions Fianna Fail to get 38% of the vote. Fine Gael 27%. Labour 13%. Sinn Fein 9%. Greens 7%. Fianna Fail to get 73 seats and form a coaltion with another party.
That’s poor enough vote management from FF in Louth piper if they can’t get a second FFer in after Ahern.
I think Deary might nip in their for the fourth seat - his campaign is going very well apparently.
Ahead of who thought? McGuinness and Dowd both have high profiles and are excellend candidates. Morgan won’t lose a seat and Ahern is a banker.
McGuinness. She’s not too popular because she’s living in Meath which isn’t going down well with the locals. She’s been parachuted in as an MEP and it’s between her, FF and Deary for the last seat. I think Deary could get transfers from both Morgan and Ahern. Ahern is quite the environmentalist by all accounts so he’ll transfer to Deary I think which would be important.
Paddypower have McGuinness at 1/10 so that would suggest she is virtually assured of a seat. She is a good communicator and seems to have run a very good campaign so I’d be surprised if she failed to get a seat. I don’t think people will transfer from Ahern to Deary regardless of his environmental credentials. People don’t vote for Ahern because he is a minister and an FF representative.
O’Dowd will get in because he’s Drogheda. Ahern will get in no bother. Morgan should get in without any problems. Then I think it depends on transfers. Deary can get them from Ahern (both Dundalk and slightly green) and from the weakest FG Nash (Dundalk too but not as many as McGuinness will get there).
The PP odds are way too short for McGuinness I think.
Looked at Boylesports there and McGuinness is 1/4 there with Dearey 5/2. Paddypower are offering brutal odds across the constituencies.
PADDYPOWER
Dermot Ahern (FF) 1 - 66
Mairead McGuinness (FG) 1 - 10
Fergus O’Dowd (FG) 1 - 8
Arthur Morgan (SF) 1 - 5
Seamus Kirk (FF) 6 - 5
Mark Dearey (Gr.) 7 - 4
Gerald Nash (Lab.) 7 - 1
Jim D’Arcy (FG) 11 - 1
Frank Maher (FF) 12 - 1
Peter Short (WP) 50 - 1
Luke Martin (Ind) 50 - 1
Dermot Duke (Ind) 66 - 1
BOYLESPORTS
Dermot Ahern NO BET
Arthur Morgan (SF) 1/7
Fergus O Dowd (FG) 1/7
Mairead Mc Guiness (FG) 1/4
Seamus Kirk (FF) 4/7
Mark Dearey (GP) 5/2
Frank Maher( FF) 9/1
Jim D’Arcy (FG) 9/1
Gerald Nash (Lab) 10/1
Peter Short (WP) 50/1
Wexford:
John Browne (FF)
Brendan Howlin (Labour)
Dr Liam Twomey (FG)
Paul Kehoe (FG)
Sean Connick (FF)
No real change - Twomey to retain the seat he won as an Independent last time out for FG and Connick to replace the retiring FF TD, Tony Dempsey, ahead of his FF running mate, Lisa McDonald, by virtue of his New Ross base. SF’s John Dwyer could cause a huge shock and I haven’t ruled him out.
Dublin South East:
John Gormley (Green Party)
Ruairi Quinn (Labour)
Jim O’Callaghan (FF)
Lucinda Creighton (FG)
Michael McDowell to lose his seat to FG in an almighty shock and the PD’s to be wiped out all over the country.
I think the PD’s will do better then many pundits have forecasted. There is a solid core of people who like their brand of distasteful politics.
Dublin North
Sargent
Reilly
Kennedy
Daly
It’s a fear I have too Piper but when you look at their TDs it’s very hard to imagine that Grealish, Sexton, Fiona O’Malley in particular will be returned.
Liz O’Donnell, Tom Parlon, Tim O’Malley are all unlikely to get elected but some or all might.
Harney and McDowell are all likely to be returned but there’s a chance they won’t be.
So looking at their individual candidates I’d say they could be as low as one or two (and polls indicate two) but in reality I’d settle for them down to five.
My great hope for this election is that the Socialist Party get as many or more TDs than the PDs. I’d love to see the Socialists getting the same airtime as McDowell.
Ann Marie Martin to be elected purely because she’s a looker
[img width=100 height=126]http://www.village.ie/images/village/Politicians/election07_youngblood/fg-ann_marie_martin.jpg
Had the lovely Theresa Lowe canvassing on the doorstep for Frank McNamara last night. I dont think it will be enough to change my mind. Probbably going vote Fianna Fail 1 and 2 with Sf my number 3.
What party’s Frank going for?
Where In The World could his constituency be?
Boom-tish.
Probbably going vote Fianna Fail 1 and 2 with Sf my number 3.
You’re not supposed to predict who you’re going to vote for - that’s relatively easy. It’s supposed to be a prediction of who’ll win in your constituency.
I dont reckon that was a prediction at all, I think the point being made there is that Theresa Lowe didn’t have any impact in swaying a vote for Frankie
Thought the media wasn’t allowed to report on the General Election the day before polling
Read the full thread farmer and the other general election thread. Nobody silences us.
Dublin South Central
Ardagh -FF
O’Snodaigh - SF
Mary Upton - Lab
Catherine Byrne -FG
Tony McDermott Greens (ahead of Eric Byrne Lab and Mulcahy FF in a close one for the last seat)
Dublin South East
Quinn LAB
Gormley GP
McDowell PD
Creighton FG
Dublin South
Seamus Brennan FF
Eamonn Ryan GP
Tom Kitt FF
Olivia Mitchell FG
Alan Shatter FG
Dun Laoighre
Hanafin (how could anyone vote for the hooer? ::))
Eamonn Gilmore
Ciaran Cuffe
Sean Barrett
Oisin Quinn
Optimistic predictions, cant see the two Andrewses loosing seats but I’d probably rather see FF keep a seat in DSE with O’Callaghan who in fairness has been reasonably impressive for a young FFer any time I’ve seen him. Love to see McDowell lose out. The Dun Laoighre scenario looks impracticle aswell with FF transfers considered but I won’t even attempt to consider what fools that vote for Mary Hanafin as their first choice would do with their preferences :-