you just dont know how good things are till they are taken away
come back Ben
[quote=“sid waddell”]I am most definitely not an expert on this sort of thing. But I watched a “Dispatches” documentary on the banking crisis about six months ago and after that I wouldn’t trust a word said by anybody in the industry. It was all about “collateralised loan obligations” (repackaging debt and selling it on I think) and how people in these banks basically don’t give a shit about what happens as long as they get their bonuses. Barclays were supposed to be 48million (can’t remember if it was dollars or sterling) in debt due to collateralised loan obligations.
What are the chances of one or more of the Irish banks going under? I’m thinking particularly of Permanent TSB and Anglo-Irish here.[/quote]
Well if rumours are to be believed then Anglo-Irish and Irish Nationwide are the two in biggest trouble.
There were rumours about Irish Nationwide last week that made it as far as Reuters but the agency subsequently retracted their story. They have a bizarre structure though and are controlled hugely by one guy - Michael Fingleton. Don’t think their reputation will have been helped by the Reuters story and they had a credit ratings drop last week too.
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/reuters-backs-down-on-false-inbs-report-1471066.html
http://www.tribune.ie/article/2008/sep/14/irish-nationwide-suffers-massive-bond-sell-off/
The Irish banks aren’t exposed to the US sub-prime stuff really. They have their own difficulties to do with the Irish property market but there’s no reason to suggest that they’ll go to the wall as a result of poor economic circumstances.
[quote=“therock67”]Well if rumours are to be believed then Anglo-Irish and Irish Nationwide are the two in biggest trouble.
There were rumours about Irish Nationwide last week that made it as far as Reuters but the agency subsequently retracted their story. They have a bizarre structure though and are controlled hugely by one guy - Michael Fingleton. Don’t think their reputation will have been helped by the Reuters story and they had a credit ratings drop last week too.
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/reuters-backs-down-on-false-inbs-report-1471066.html
http://www.tribune.ie/article/2008/sep/14/irish-nationwide-suffers-massive-bond-sell-off/
The Irish banks aren’t exposed to the US sub-prime stuff really. They have their own difficulties to do with the Irish property market but there’s no reason to suggest that they’ll go to the wall as a result of poor economic circumstances.[/quote]
But Irish Banks are hugely exposed to the Irish commercial property market, which is dropping like a stone also. They are continually refinancing their outstanding loans to big developers and hoping the house of cards might just stay up. I expect it won’t.
It’s a different problem though and has nothing to do with what’s going on in the US. The Irish property market will cause profit problems for the Irish banks and those that are overly exposed to developers without sufficient safe holdings might be in trouble. But there’s nothing to actually suggest that they are in trouble - they have share price devaluation as a result of the housing market and the difficulty in securing funding, it’s not really a reflection of their own risk.
However I do think Irish Nationwide are more exposed because they’re run by one guy really and the world won’t like that.
The fund has significantly underperformed its benchmark over the last 8 months – the managers selection of stocks has largely contributed to this underperformance in particular their overweight position in financial shares.
No Shit sherlock. -20%
20 fucking percent !!!
If an Irish bank goes under, what are the chances of the government bailing them out? Is it time to do a Bertie on it and get all your deposits turned into cash and stuff it under the bed? Depending on who or who you don’t believe on various forums the Irish banks are “the weakest in Europe”.
Anglo-Irish in a very bad way if you believe this:
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=87389&st=0
[quote=“sid waddell”]If an Irish bank goes under, what are the chances of the government bailing them out? Is it time to do a Bertie on it and get all your deposits turned into cash and stuff it under the bed? Depending on who or who you don’t believe on various forums the Irish banks are “the weakest in Europe”.
Anglo-Irish in a very bad way if you believe this:
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=87389&st=0[/quote]
I cant see BOI/AIB being allowed to fail (dont work for either BTW), they employ 10000+ each in addition to whatever ancillary employment they bring. I dont think they will fail in any case but in a doomsday id say they will be bailed out.
The rest are on there own
There’s no doubt that the Govt would bail out any of the top 4 banks, indeed their ratings are underpinned by the high likelihood of support. If the Govt let one of them go under it would have massive implications for the economy. If people think Us and ither overseas investors are nervous now, they’d run a mile from the Irish economy if an Anglo / BOI went under. It would be a disaster for the ISE aswell considering how big a proportion of trading centres around the 4 banks. Add to that all the “friends of the Govt” i.e. big developers who are being backed by Anglo in particular and it’s easy to see that FF wouldn’t hesitate to step in.
Yeah think you can extend it beyond AIB and BOI in terms of who would be bailed out.
As regards deposits - up to 20k in any institution and you have a 90% govt guarantee on your deposits (though the government might struggle for this cash as their reserve is low). Otherwise stick it in Northern Rock which is guaranteed by the British govt.
fcuk the banks
they have been ripping us off for years
I’m going to close all my current accounts and put every single penny of my money into a few credit union accounts and a work holiday fund that’s operated by HR in my office. Then I’m going to withdraw money as and when I need it and insist on paying all my utility bills, rent etc in cash. You can’t be too careful with the banks in this climate.
credit unions are in a bad way
Careful of those credit unions Bandage. Why don’t you put your salary straight into prize bonds. Then you can go out and get your groceries every time you win a prize.
[quote=“north county corncrake”]fcuk the banks
they have been ripping us off for years[/quote]
Its not just the banks though.
I have now lost 20% of my pension in 8 months because the fund manager thought the banks were a safe bet to invest in.
If I was retiring in a couple of years then that would be a whole different story.
Cheers for the advice NCC and Rocko. A post office account it will be so.
I think Cyril the Squirrel is still selling his stamps.
Fair fucks to Cyril. Made me my first tenner. Took me about 6 months though
Don’t think the bushy tailed cunt paid any interest either.
Jugs, how has AIG opened in New York?
All the huns’ debt is with HBOS. Should I be hoping they survive or go bust? They’re down 23% or something today in London.
AIG is still heading south. The Fed has rejected their request for 40bn bridging funding meaning their on their own. Regulators in NY where their HQ is have allowed them to bring cash from subsidiaries into the parent company to the tune of 20bn but most of that is going to go on margin calls on their credit default exposures. Basically it’s unlikely they’ll survive in their current format, they’ll have to break up the business which will take time and the way market sentiment is moving against them, time is sometihng they won’t have a whole lot of. I can see the feds point in not supporting every major company that goes to the wall as they don’t want to reward bad/even reckless risk taking, but in AIG’s case they’re the biggest US insurer by premium income so if they go bust it will leave millions of ordinary Americans with no insurance. I’ve been in banking for 5 years and this is the first time something remotely interesting has happened in the industry, go on the credit crunch!!! Yahoo!!!