Any chance there could be a big global bounce back next year and we could all be saved?
that 400,000 you see in areas is the ‘askiing price’ offer them a half of that and while they will initially say no they will be back…
Do I need to start looking at investing in German language lessons with all this talk of the IMF coming in?
Well as I said they are looking for €400,000 around me according to that they will be looking for a while but I still want to know is my bit of auld dosh safe in the bank or should I turn it into dry money.
Just to go a bit further on the €400, 000 gaffs here the sites were in excess of €100,000 and I’d imagine the building costs in excess of €120, 000 so without making a bob they have to get €220,000.
The average house price in 1996 was the equivalent of €75,000. By 2005 that had reached €280,000.
Between 1996 and 2005 the Consumer Price Index, which measures the cost of living, increased by 30%. If house prices had kept pace with the Consumer Price Index the average cost of a house In Ireland in 2005 would have been €97,500.
By February 2007 and the peak the average price of a house in Ireland was €311,000. According to the Permanent TSB / ESRI index (not completely reliable but probably the best measure of house prices over the last 15 years) released at the end of July (when I came up with these figures), that had fallen to €201,000.
If we say that the Consumer Price Index has risen by 45% between 1996 and 2009, (don’t have the exact figures but it’s in that ballpark ) that means that house prices won’t be at a realistic value until they reach an average of €108,000, which adds that 45% increase to the 1996 figure.
The current average industrial wage is €32,000. The generally accepted optimum level for house prices is around 3 to 4 times the average industrial wage. If we’re generous and say house prices will fall to 4 times that level, then you are talking about a figure of €128,000, way below the current figure of €201,000. I think they will fall to three times the average salary like they for most of the 80’s and up until 1995.
Here’s a graph of Irish house prices v the average industrial wage since 1977 based on CSO figures:
http://dublinopinion.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/house-prices-wages.JPG
That’s not even taking into account the massive oversupply at the moment. Taking into account the prevailing economic factors mentioned earlier and especially the unknow number of billions to be taken out of the economy over the coming four years at any rate, there’s no reason to think prices won’t keep falling.
I think there may even be an “overshoot” which means prices fall lower than I projected, and articles like Morgan Kelly’s one won’t help sentiment among buyers one bit.
That’s just my take on it though and bear in mind I am very much not a financial expert.
Funny you should say that.I’m thinking of taking up die Muttersprache again.
I tell ya the way things are going here we will be part of Germany by Christmas 2011.
Things are looking black now but we are a resilient people and we will see this crisis out.
I for one am getting a bit sick of sid talking down the economy.
He’s talking it up isn’t he
@turfcutter if you’re worried about your cash in Irish banks you can always put it with Rabo or Ulster.
But if your deposits aren’t safe in the Irish banks and they go belly up we’re fucked anyway and we’ll all be growing our own food so I wouldn’t worry.
Besides, AIB’s share price surged 30% today, the glory days are back.
@turfcutter if you’re worried about your cash in Irish banks you can always put it with Rabo or Ulster.
But if your deposits aren’t safe in the Irish banks and they go belly up we’re fucked anyway and we’ll all be growing our own food so I wouldn’t worry.
Besides, AIB’s share price surged 30% today, the glory days are back.
Or he could buy a sweep of limousins and let them roam the plains of North Clare.
dunph the runt and myself will be happy to provide gardening advice to ye all, is the post office safe
@turfcutter if you’re worried about your cash in Irish banks you can always put it with Rabo or Ulster.
But if your deposits aren’t safe in the Irish banks and they go belly up we’re fucked anyway and we’ll all be growing our own food so I wouldn’t worry.
Besides, AIB’s share price surged 30% today, the glory days are back.
whitheads or shorhorns would be better if Armageddon came, would you milk a limousine and tis mountains not plains
maybe if you had a flak jacket
Roaming the hills on horseback shooting limousins sounds like an optimistic enough vision of the apocalypse.
I hear Paxman made a reference to quantitative cheesing…
Can only presume the Post Office is the same risk as the guaranteed banks. Someone more intelligent might know though.
Fuck it I’ll buy a few biscuit tins altogether
Sidney
November 9, 2010, 10:55pm
240
“It’s completely wrong to say that Hitler was bad for the Jewish population of Europe. But for him the Jews would have stayed in Europe and they would never have got their own state. So I think it’s fair to say that Hitler is in fact the father of the state of Israel, that’s the reality of the situation”.
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/telegraph/multimedia/archive/00675/brian-lenihan-campa_675293c.jpg
