Re: General Election Thurs 24th May

It came up Labour for me!

A few points:

  1. They spent Fine Gael wrong on one of the screens which is a terrible error.
  2. I was only near FG policy on EU enlargement whereas I was close to SF on 2 and the Green Party on 2.
  3. I think the whole survey suggests the Labour Party are more left wing than they actually are.
  4. The survey suggests SF are not liberal on abortion which is clearly wrong.
  5. It also suggests SF and the Green Party are opposed to EU enlargement which is plainly wrong. They both advocated no votes to Nice but not because they’re opposed to the expansion of the EU on principle.

Yes, I was confused on the 2 EU categories. I came out as Fine Gael on both of those and I agree that they misinterpreted the SF and Green Party position on that.

Polls from Donegal Democrat today:

Donegal North East

Jim McDaid FF 26%*
Cecilia Keaveny FF 18%*
Joe McHugh FG 17%
Padraig McLochlainn SF 16%
Niall Blaney FF 11%*
S McLaughlin LAB 4%
Jimmy Harte Ind 3%
Gallagher GREEN 2%
McGarvey Ind 2%
Doherty CSP 1%

  • = sitting TD

Could be tight for the last seat but Blaney’s transfers may go to McLochlainn ahead of Keavney whereas the smaller candidates are likely to transfer more to McHugh. Probably enough to get McLochlainn and McHugh elected ahead of Keavney.

Donegal South West

Coughlan FF 33%*
McGinley FG 26%*
Doherty SF 19%
Pat the Cope 15%*
Rodgers Lab 4%
Others 3%

Again it looks good for SF to take a seat from FF.

80 minutes leader’s debate tonight. It better be entertaining given they’ve cancelled The Sopranos for it. I hope they don’t get bogged down learning off different statistics and percentages and just have a decent wideranging debate. We’ll see.

paddy power has a few markets on tonight’s debate like : who will take a sip of water first / who will miriam have to interrupt first ?

there’s a nice double there somewhere !!!

Enda has made a strong start i think.

bertie bites back :-

Don’t really have time to go into this in a really detailed manner tonight but I thought Bertie won that comfortably. I’d be interested to see what everyone else thinks though because I could have misread it.

Only saw the second half but from what I saw Enda was too timid and shy. He apologised to both Bertie and Miriam when they asked him to let them speak. Instead of saying that the health system is an utter disgrace he chose instead to debate the minute details of how beds should be prioritised which frankly resonates with nobody. FG should have been looking to score huge points off FF by pointing out the scandal of the health system - instead he got into a debate on statistics which is Bertie’s field. Ask the man any question on anything and he’ll defend the government through statistics.

FG obviously felt that Noonan’s aggressive strategy at the last election (when he won the debate) backfired on polling day so Kenny was instructed to be calm. There’s calm and there’s timid cowardice though. Made no inroads at all into Bertie and got drawn away from the areas he should have been debating.

Spoke to Rock Senior on the phone there who felt Bertie won, with Miriam second and Enda languishing nowhere.

The Times and Tribune correspondents on Prime Time now are calling it a draw and saying Bertie didn’t get the big win he needed and hasn’t done enough to turn things around. Vincent Browne and his panel on the radio think Bertie won hands down. Totally agree on the statistics point too. There was so many issues he could have nailed FF on and he got bogged down on statistics - I posted before the debate that I hoped this wouldn’t happen - in the key areas of health and crime where he had loads of ammunition. When he didn’t make any inroads here he was never going to come out on top in stuff like the economy where Bertie has presided over the growth of the last 10 years.

i thought the debate went very much as expected. Kenny shaded the health debate whereas Bertie got the better of the economy exchanges.

i thought enda was getting on top in the crime debate stressing that this Govt hadnt delivered the numbers of Gardai they had promised etc when he made an error in admitting that Jim O’Keeffe hadnt all the figures with him when making statements on crime.

it was vital for FG that Kenny didnt make an absolute balls of it and I dont think he did. The election wasnt won or lost last night by either leader. Still all to play for.

i didnt think enda done all that bad. However, having said that i wasnt expecting too much from him as he’s hardly an inspirational character.

i thought he made a promising enough start but as was said already he was too timid on helath and crime issues. he got a little muddled up with Berties statistics with Bertie getting the last word in on numerous occassions and finishing the stronger i thought.

i dont think enda done too much harm last night, he was never going to win the elcetion last night but he could have lost it.

am i way off the mark?

can someone with access to a betting site put up odds on the formation of the next Govt and to win a seat in Dublin North please

cheers Raven…unbelievable if FF didn’t get a seat

FF are guaranteed a seat - they’ve no chance of losing 2.

I think Dublin North will be:

Sargent
Kennedy
Reilly
Daly

probably in that order.

Don’t think Labour will retain and FG will take one from FF.

I was impressed with Enda Kenny last night. I do agree that he let Bertie get in a few too many last remarks and he never really clarified his point sometimes when Bertie was pushing him. The only thing that really annoyed me about him was how he kept mentioning his contract to the people. Miriam hit the nail on the head it is just an American gimmick and rather than instil believe and trust in him it would nearly put me off.

mcdowell’s harping on wednesday just illustrates what a cheek ff has for calling themselves ‘the republican party’. how can a republican party have a man who rejected hume adams and has always had a detrimental attitude towards the peace process as the minister for justice in a government they lead? this alone is enough for me to give ff/pd my last preferences. as an aside i think o’leary might get in possibly at the expense of kennedy in ‘north dublin’. kennedy is a fool and i think most of the electorate know this at this stage. he would probably have a better chance of getting elected if he didn’t do any campaigning because people will see right through him imo.

I thought I was still voting in Wexford and I was planning on going down to vote. But a pollling card for up here came through the letter box yesterday. When I thought about it remember having a conversation outside my house with a nice lady maybe last Autumn who was going around making sure the register was up to date. Now I can go for McDowell’s throat as the fooker’s in my constituency.