This is about ICU capacity and the amount of people that will unnecessarily die prematurely if the virus is left run its course.
Doctors don’t have to choose to switch someone’s machine off during regular flu season to give the queue of people in the corridor a chance.
This isnt regular flu season. This is a global pandemic.
When you preface a post with “more hysteria”, it actual diminishes your point, at least to most reasonable people
Guys? A lot if posters saying death rate and density of population are linked…
Explain Singapore?
Estimated UK deaths in a do nothing situation were around 240k. Estimated UK deaths in a lockdown situation were around 40k.
Corresponding US figures were 2.2 million and 100-240k balllpark.
And that’s only in two countries.
People who can’t debate can talk about “hysteria” all they want.
Bottom line is that by doing what the OP here wants, you’d be sacrificing millions of lives.
That’s a holocaust in any rational person’s language. A deliberate decision to sacrifice millions of lives which could otherwise be saved is a holocaust.
Sometimes moral issues are extremely clear. This is one of those occasions.
You obviously can’t read cryptic lunatic either.
You should check out the Hector Drummond character he quoted near the start of the thread.
Mr. Drummond from Diff’rent Strokes would have been a much more credible source.
Whatcha talkin’ 'bout @ironmoth?
unless there is full testing in every country the death rate is meaningless
It’s such a nuanced language. We just don’t get it.
He thinks there’s been a global consensus to stop the World economy because the Rothschilds ordered it.
Rational thinking
Running down the updated Danish numbers vs Ireland again.
Tests
The Danes have tested 39.9k as of today, vs Ireland at 30.2k as at March 30th. Rolling forward 5 days for Ireland at 1,500, we’d be at 37.7k. At the Danes pop that would be an equivalent of 44.5k tests. I had read we had conducted over 2k tests one day this week and tests have gone to Germany (with some returned today) so we have more more completed but I’ll keep it at the lower level.
That’s a differential of circa 4.6k tests in Ireland’s favoured on Danish number.
Limitations of this include the differences in testing strategies (the Danes were more restrictive early on) and current and go forward capacity, which would be a consideration in lifting any restrictions.
Reported cases
Denmark: 4,077
RoI: 4,604
With population considered, that’s a difference of c 1,200 more in Ireland. However, when you consider that the Danes have tested less, this difference goes down to anywhere between 700 to 1400 extra unreported cases in Denmark depending on what positive percentage you get. I’d go at the low end so say 700 more in Ireland.
I would expect though that the patterns of testing makes a difference here as well with the Danes only ramping up testing this week and Ireland being far ahead of them until this week.
ICUs
Denmark: 142 (live)
RoI: 109 (live)
The numbers are probably more in Ireland’s favour here.
Capacity is the important thing here. Unclear but I did post this (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/229013572_The_variability_of_critical_care_bed_numbers_in_Europe) from yesterday which said they had 6.7 per 100k vs 6.5, which is a small difference. What is critical is how both countries have scaled up since.
Average Daily Growth rate
A 5 day average
Denmark: 9.7%
RoI: 9.7%
Remarkable that it’s the same but also just a quirk. We need to know how many Ireland have tested over the last few days. The Danes have tested quite a few whilst we can only estimate Ireland.
For both it’s up in the air. For both though this number has been falling.
Recovered
We don’t have proper Irish stats, we need these. But common sense suggests that they are broadly similar given we both had infections at a similar date and that our ICUs and deaths are not hugely different. Unless people are claiming Irish people are less likely to recover as quickly as the Danes.
I think the key point here is that the Danes were talking about this 5 days ago, before they even had ramped up their testing and saw a further slow down in their case growth rate.
Do you think our Government is talking about it?
And do you think publicly announcing you’re talking about it is a good idea?
Here’s a carrot. Here’s a stick
Why is it a good idea for them and not us to talk about it?
Do you think our government isn’t?
No, and I didn’t say they weren’t ffs.
You are saying it is not a good idea to disclose a proposed roadmap publicly or that you are considering it. Please stick to a point.
So what’s your point, exactly?
Both governments are discussing an exit strategy.
It’s hard to stick to a point when you won’t make one
You haven’t answered the question, you seem averse to answering the difficult questions. The flu is a disease caused by a contagious respiratory virus, 300 - 1,000 die from it each year in Ireland, mostly old people. Why are you not advocating 6 month lockdowns every year to prevent old people catching the flu? It would save a lot of lives.
Doctors make life and death decisions every day, it’s part of their job. One of the things this highlights is the need for a living will, do you really want your last few days or a week with a tube shoved down your windpipe to keep you alive? I certainly don’t, although that’s a personal decision.
I agree with efforts to slow down the rate of infection, they should have been taken earlier. However, these have to be balanced with the destruction that could be caused by long term measures, especially as we pass the peak and things improve. It looks to me that Ireland has stabilized, in terms of the number of new cases and hospitalizations. There is no evidence of ICU capacity being overloaded, as in Italy.
Why not see how it goe for Denmark and if it works follow them?
You just said it’s not a good idea to disclose it publicly, that’s the point you were making.
I responded asking why it is okay for them to do so and not us.
The question isn’t relevant.
You are trying to compare the seasonal flu to a global pandemic.
There is no question there.
Nobody is calling for a lockdown that goes on for any more than is absolutely necessary.
We simply cant come out of it too early, like we went in too late
Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan were prepared for a pandemic, and took appropriate defensive measures.
There’s logic to that alright.
At the same time though we have seen what is happening in Sweden and Holland where they have or have had less restrictions.