Tim, I’ve stated quite clearly that, at the current projected cost, I don’t believe MetroLink is justifiable. The boat has sailed. It should have been built donkey’s years ago, before the corridor became so heavily developed and the cost of land, tunnelling and construction went through the roof.
At this stage, I believe we should be properly examining enhanced bus services, Luas extensions and overground rail alternatives.
Remote working is another major factor. If it continues to grow, fewer people will need to commute into Dublin every day, and some may choose to live elsewhere.
That could materially affect both the North Dublin population assumptions and the projected peak hour demand underpinning the business case.
So I’ll say it again: at anything approaching €18 billion, I would not proceed with this project.
4 DART lines and both Luas lines will integrate with MetroLink. There’ll be shifts all over the system.
More broadly, Dublin atm has about 1/3 of PT on rail.
That will move to more like 6 out of 10 with the various rail projects in the system.
There will be increased usage of course, but broadly there will be less dependency on buses within the Dublin Metro Area and you will see a reduction in bus users on existing services that can hook into elsewhere.
This happens elsewhere- a city like Munich (3x times the sizes of Dublin) has half the number of bus passengers in absolute terms.
Interesting that you should mention Munich, Tim, because I lived there for a period and haven’t a bad word to say about the place.
Its public transport is absolutely incredible: the U-Bahn, S-Bahn, trams and buses operate as one integrated network and run with extraordinary Teutonic efficiency.
Of all the cities I’ve lived in or visited, Munich is probably second to none as an example of how public transport should be done.
MetroLink is one 19 kilometre line, being added to a fragmented system
The Germans built an integrated network over decades; we’re proposing to spend almost €18 billion on one 19 km line.
Not worth it when you don’t understand the components of it.
Nearly half the “cost” you mention is to operate the thing for 30 years and contingencies for inflation over the next decade!
Huge chunks relate to properties on O’Connell Street and in Ranelagh, of which there is huge residual value for the State that they’ll be more than able to get back.
Another large chunk relates to houses for workers, is that not “worth” it?
The growth of artificial intelligence will completely transform office work within the next five years.
AI can already perform a huge proportion of routine administrative and professional tasks.
as high as 90% in some jobs and its capabilities are advancing rapidly.
The days of commuting into a city to sit like battery hens opposite one another are numbered.
I cannot see the traditional office model remaining sustainable when most processes can be automated and the remaining work performed remotely.
People will be able to live and work from Donegal, Connemara or the Aran Islands, provided they have reliable broadband.
That fundamentally undermines assumptions about ever-growing numbers of office workers commuting into Dublin city centre every morning.
It was said on the VM Tonight show the other evening that the Government was yet to release their cost-benefit analysis. Surely they should show their figures first?
It’s surely not unreasonable to expect the Government to show their figures before embarking on expenditure of this scale. It doesn’t exactly inspire confidence that they’ll get it right this time around.