Rugby World Cup betting

I see Paddy Power have persuaded a Tongan player to change his name to Paddy Power and they’ve all sorts of novelty bets surrounding him.

Also France are 6/1 with Paddy Power, not 10/1 as Flano saw somewhere else which I think is altogether less tempting but it’s still not bad.

One bet I like the look of at the moment is Alain Rolland is 13/2 to be the referee in the final. He always seems to get the big matches involving France because of his language skills and with France at 6/4 to reach the final then 13/2 looks a decent price. Don’t normally bet on silly stuff like that but I reckon he has a better than 13/2 chance to be the referee in the final.

The odds on France have come in big time. Victor Chandler, along with Powers, had them at 10’s as well but they’ve changed too, into 7’s.

Powers have lost the plot with all these mad marketing schemes they dream up. Crazy mofos.

Paddy Power Plays in RWC

The Tongan player, formerly known as Epeli Taione has changed his name to Paddy Power for the 2007 Rugby World Cup. On 28 September Paddy Power will line out for Tonga against England and weve got all the betting

Paddy Power to score a try against England 8 - 1
Paddy Power to be Top Tongan Tryscorer in the RWC 14 - 1
Paddy Power to be sin-binned against England 20 - 1
Paddy Power to score a drop goal against England 33 - 1
Paddy Power to get sent off against England 100 - 1
Paddy Power to win man of the match against England 150 - 1
Paddy Power to be Top Tryscorer in the RWC 500 - 1

5/4 on any other team other than New Zeland to win would be worth a look.

The handicap for New Zealand against Portugal is 110.5 points on Betfair - can’t find an equivalent on Paddy Power or Ladbrokes. Ridiculous really and even at that you can only back New Zealand at 1.38 which is 4/11. Still think that’s actually not bad value for NZ. Their second team is almost as strong as their first team, and certainly as competitive because of the squeeze on places. Also the Portugese have decided to field a second choice team in that match:

while obviously the handicap setters know what they are doing in this i might have a bit of that as I remember backing about 2 tournaments ago& most handicaps came in
other bets I like is to lay new zeland at 2/5 as if they get to the final ill back them as i dont think odds will decrease too much
S africa without nz were the racing post tip before the summer but it might have changed- dont really have an interest in rugby so would be betting blind thou

great odds on lay there

Yeah I think the handicaps to bet on though are the smaller ones generally. Like when France played NZ last autumn and the bookies reckoned NZ were slight favourites so put them at NZ-6 at even money or something. Then NZ hammered them by 40 points odd. Anyone who had seen any France/NZ games recently would know that if NZ were going to win the likelihood would be there’d be more than a point between them.

The larger handicaps are more difficult to call because there’s no incentive for the winning team to go on and keep racking up points but Portugal v NZ is an unbelievable mismatch and a second choice Portugese side doesn’t have a prayer of keeping the score down. It’s really a matter of how quickly they score but I’d be very surprised if they didn’t put over 111 points up.

they would be capable of a try every 5 mins?

I don’t see why not. They beat Japan by 110 a couple of tournaments ago and that was a worse NZ team against a far better Japanese side. This is Portugal. They’ve zero pedigree. And their second team would be a lower division Irish team at best.

also if your losing 90-0 im sure the heart goes very quickly

Jesus. Who decided that Portugal would play their second team. The first team?

That could actually be dangerous.

I was debating whether to cover a couple of New Zealand’s wingers for top try scorer, but the odds aren’t great.

It’s unlikely to be a French or South African player due to the difficulty of their groups. The Australian backs are class but their forwards won’t win them much possession. Plus their group’s a little tougher and they’re looking at a quarter final against England or South Africa.

NZ are gonna romp their group and put 100, maybe even 150 points on Portugal and probably 70 or 100 on Romania too. Italy and maybe Scotland will also play second string teams against them. The only issue is how they rotate their wingers.

Rokocko’s at 4/1, Sivavatu 9/2 and Howlett 6/1.

Still worth backing all three?

The fullbacks Muliani and McDonald are also both at 25/1.

The other point to consider against Portugal and Romania is will the ball even reach the wingers? You could have centers running in for buckets of tries but I think you have to assume that the majority of scores will be on the wings.

I’m half tempted by Howlett at 6/1. I think he’s more likely to feature in the Portugal and Romania games and a few tries in those matches could be curtains for everyone else for the rest of the tournament whether he plays or not. The odds on betfair for those three are 9/2, 11/2 and 11/1 by the way - Howlett’s in particular being significantly better. The two fullbacks are at 42/1 on betfair. Those are win only prices so you can’t back them each way.

Does McDonald have the fullback spot nailed down now?

If not, Muliania is one of those fullbacks who enters the line at the end of moves to finish them off, a la Girvan Dempsey, rather than making the initial line break closer in, a la Geordan Murphy.

If he plays he’s definitely worth a tenner at 42/1. He was joint top try-scorer in last RWC.

The other good bet in rugby is often doubling up the team winner with the top points scorer. In competition’s like the Celtic League, Heineken Cup etc, the team that wins goalkicker is nearly always the top points scorer.

However, RWC is kinda different due to pitiful massacres in groups. If South Africa won it, seems a good chance James (does he take their kicks?) would lose out to a NZ winger.

Still, what would you get on NZ and Carter or Australia and Mortlock?

Less clear with France. Skrela?

They are related markets so you can’t work out the odds yourself - you need to request them from PP. i.e. the chances of Carter being top points scorer are increased if NZ win the tournament so they don’t let you just do the double. Can’t find the odds anywhere just now.

I’d be thinking McDonald would be first choice for NZ alright but you never know with them because they don’t really settle on a starting backline anyway. Percy Montgomery takes the kicks for South Africa but I don’t think he’s dynamic enough to rack up many tries and I agree that he’d lose out to a NZ winger.

Mortlock is a decent shout but he has an injury scare at the moment doesn’t he which means he’s likely to be rested in the irrelevant group games.

Paddy does have tournament winner and top try scorer available:

New Zealand & J Rokocoko 11 - 2 South Africa & S Sivivatu 33 - 1 South Africa & A Willemse 150 - 1
New Zealand & S Sivivatu 6 - 1 South Africa & D Howlett 66 - 1 Australia & L Tuqiri 250 - 1
New Zealand & D Howlett 9 - 1 South Africa & B Habana 80 - 1 England & J Robinson 500 - 1
New Zealand & B Habana 25 - 1 France & B Habana 100 - 1 Ireland & D Hickie 500 - 1
South Africa & J Rokocoko 28 - 1 France & C Dominici 125 - 1 Ireland & B O Driscoll 1000 - 1
New Zealand & M Muliaina 33 - 1 France & V Clerc 125 - 1

Also one other won that I just saw:

NZ are 7/4 to outscore Ireland and England combined. With their easy group and their blatant superiority it might be worth a look. Need to think about it first.

Freddie Michelak simply has to play for France and if he does then they’ll win the tournament and he’ll be top scorer.

I’ll be bumping this post back up to the top in 6 weeks.

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Post edited by: Flano, at: 2007/09/04 09:04

Ok as of today, I saw PPower have the three main All Black wingers, Rokocoko, Sivavatu and Howlett all at 9/2 for top try-scorer.

As I’m convinced that one of them will win it, if I put twenty on each, I should net an easy fifty squids no?

Main threat will be the NZ fullbacks, Muliaina and McDonald, but they’re likely to be rotated anyway.

I’ve used my Boylesports free bets (courtesty of Juhniallio’s posts yesterday) to back the following 5 New Zealanders:


I think McAllister is your biggest threat Fats - he’s my value tip for top try scorer. I think he’ll play out half when Carter’s not playing, and he’s a cracking runner with the ball from out half, and he looks like he might play centre in the “first XV” as well.

therock67 wrote:

One bet I like the look of at the moment is Alain Rolland is 13/2 to be the referee in the final. He always seems to get the big matches involving France because of his language skills and with France at 6/4 to reach the final then 13/2 looks a decent price. Don’t normally bet on silly stuff like that but I reckon he has a better than 13/2 chance to be the referee in the final.

:grin: :grin: :grin: :grin: :grin: :grin: :grin: :grin:

Irish referee in charge of final
Monday, 8 October 2007 17:26

Irish referee Alain Rolland will take charge of the World Cup final at the Stade de France on 20 October.

South Africa’s Jonathan Kaplan will take care of the first semi-final between France and England on Saturday with Steve Walsh, of New Zealand, responsible for the second semi-final on Sunday between the Springboks and Argentina.

Kiwi Paul Honiss will officiate at the third place play-off at the Parc des Princes in Paris on 19 October.