I read a theory that the Russians would let off a tactical nuke (smaller bomb) - escalate to de-escalate - to end the war on basis NATO would back down and not respond.
At this stage nobody knows but it’s gone from “no chance” to “possible” and the consequences are so unthinkable any risk of it is hard to contemplate.
They have been using drones for tactical strikes. They are due another delivery of them from Turkey. If they could get those along with extra fighter jets the convoy would be a sitting duck.
I dont see how that’s the case. They are already having serious logistical issues. Attacking that convoy would only make them worse. Putin can invent far easier excuses.
Trending increasingly towards a war of attrition that may go on for months, if not years, leading to a massive refugee crisis for Western Europe to deal with, along with a massive energy crisis. Eventually the European leaders will start to pressure Zelensky into a deal so that Putin can face in some way.
Very likely. I predict a massive energy crisis next winter. Qatar will be shipping in LNG and or tankers through turkey in Europe will Germany rushes to build LNG terminals. Oil prices will shoot up also. We will freeze with rolling blackouts until sleepy eamon turns back on the peat plants (that can be restarted).
He thoughts all he’d have to do was walk in and the Ukrainians would roll over. Now his trying atrocities on civilians to break the Ukrainians. This is going to be the subject of war crimes tribunals. Assuming the whole of Europe isn’t left a radioactive wasteland.
He either has no fear of anyone doing anything or Putin is goading the lads to drop a few bombs when you see that convoy of tanks … it’s a turkey shoot once you decide to take action .
Although the diplomatic threat was clear enough, the exact phrasing confused nuclear experts and defence ministries, who did not recognise what a “special mode of combat duty” might specifically entail. But there was agreement that the threat, though it had gone up a notch, remained at a low level.
Pavel Podvig, widely considered a leading expert on Russian nuclear forces, tweeted that that Putin’s order “most likely” meant “the nuclear command and control system received what is known as a preliminary command”. This would turn the system on, in effect, allowing “a launch order” to “go through if issued”.
It would also allow, he wrote, for the nuclear weapons to be launched “if the president is taken out or can not be reached”, but he added, only in the case “it detects actual nuclear detonations on the Russian territory”.