The risk of starvation for certain areas is a major worry for Ukraine but this is also an issue for the Russian army if they’re struggling to get supplies in as it is?
If Ukraine surrender then it’s a win for Putin, that is not an outcome outside forces will allow I’d imagine.
How are things in the aircraft leasing capital of the world in Dublin docklands lads? The legal boys must be putting in long days.
Meanwhile an example of contagion - some pople I know have a loan from one of the Russian banks which is now sanctioned for some properties in eastern Europe. They are told that the local bank entity is going into voluntary liquidation. That situation is fluid.
Any military experts (on TFK or elsewhere) able to provide a reliable update?
Is it fair to say the actual combat/battles aren’t as prevalent as in the first few days and the Russians are turning the screw by intensifying the aerial strikes, including on civilian areas?
They seem to have made inroads in some places near the eastern border but that military column leading into Kiev appears to have stalled completely. It’s 65km long (or the length from the M1 to the Ardee exit, according to my life partner).
Does the fact the Ukrainians haven’t really been able to prevent the blitz of air strikes and they haven’t dropped bombs on this military column suggest their own air defences have been compromised and/or they’ve run out of missiles themselves?
Here’s a reliable 2008 update from the current CIA director… courtesy of Julian Assange. More detail, context etc can be found 20 minutes into the podcast
I am the forums resident military expert.
The first Ukranian City, Kherson has fallen and is now occupied by Russian forces. Sad as this is the very fact that it has taken this long for the Russians to take a city is unquestionably a serious setback to their plans. The Ukraine defence has been remarkable notably in Kharkiv which still holds out despite daily bombardment.
The Russian invasion is two pronged, coming from the North and South The initial prognosis that both forces would attempt to meet in the middle appears misguided, these are two seperate but synchronized operations. Coming from Crimea in the South the objective appears to be to cut off Ukranian access to the sea. Mariopol is still holding out but is under heavey siege and shelling and after taken Kherson the Russians will now go after Odessa thus blocking off the sea which would be a crippling blow.
And from the North slowly but surely zeroing in on Kyiv, the objective here is ultimatley regime change. The convoy although bogged down (logistically the war has been a disaster so far for Russia) will eventually be joined by other forced to form part of an attempted encirclement of the Capital.
The worst of it hasn’t even begun yet. The more Russia turns the screw and once food and water supplies become more and more scarce the more desperate the humanitarian aspect will become. There will be heavy resistence in the cities and based on what we’ve seen so far from the Ukranians this could be highly effective thus prolonging the War fo months possibly years.
It will all come down the Kyiv and how long they can hold out. I heard one of their generals saying they are going to do a Stalingrad on it. I wouldn’t be surprised if they did. Prepare for a lot of street to street battles. The only thing we know for sure is that the Western democracies will be watching it all at home live on telly. They’ll give them a patronizing round of applause like they did the nurses but, bar @Tank, they haven’t a bulls notion of giving the Ukranians a dig out. Gutless shower of cunts
I suspect this is mostly propaganda. Putin has no interest in sending these s9ldiers into a meat grinder. Even if hes the psychopath we’re told he is i doubt that he feels he could withstand the collatera damage of sending thousands of bodies back to mothers in russia. Its more likely that he’ll soften up Kiev with rockets, bomb them to the negotiating table if possible…‘gently’ at first and then with whatever it takes.
But i appreciate that I’m not a military expert.
That’s obviously a conspiracy theory, as according to US neocons Putin was fine with Ukraine joining NATO (in 2001, so obviously that overrules anything he said or did afterwards).
Read up on Victoria Nuland and her role in Ukraine in 2014. Foreign affairs assistant to no less than Dick Chaney, a fine way to cut your neocon teeth. Married to Robert Kagan, one fo the authors of the neocon Project for the New American Century which led to all the neocon shitehawkery. Led the US backing of the Maiden “revolution” in 2014. In a leaked conversation with the US ambassador to Ukraine in February 2014, they discussed who should be the next Ukrainian PM and selected Yatsenyuk. When the ambassador brought up European support for the move, she replied “fuck the EU”.
Think about that. The second largest country in Europe bordering the largest country in Europe, and you have the US state department deciding who should run the country. In 2014. A US state department that had utter contempt for the EU.
Now you have war in Europe that threatens the entire continent, and the US government has basically said good luck with that. The “fuck the EU” lady? Under Secretary of State, second in command to Antony Blinken. Plus ca change.