Russia Vs Ukraine (Part 1)

For millions to take to the streets

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Putin has outlawed factual reporting, so pretty much

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Why don’t you go on Twitter and argue with him? Even just put that point to him. Sure you could even be anonymous on it.

Sure when I engaged him on Twitter he blocked me. And I couldn’t be arsed going to the trouble of setting up another account just to argue with him.

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Slava Ukraini

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Fair play to Timmy Dooley and Co for going out to the Ukraine to hear what help is needed on the ground. A brave effort and shows they care.

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Cllr Oisín O’Connor on Twitter: “An absolute ghoul of a man. https://t.co/QWDgV49XmC” / Twitter

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My loose general impression of Dooley, which I have mostly pieced together from sugar packets since around 2018, is that he seems alright for a Fianna Failer.

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Thread by Russia Foreign Minister 1990-1996:

Lots of discussions about the threat of nuclear war from the Kremlin and whether Putin is rational. I share my thoughts in this thread.

To frame: I do not believe Russia would use nuclear weapons and I believe Putin is a rational actor.

First of all, I want to examine where the questioning of Putin’s rationality started. I think it began because most people, particularly in the West, view his decision to invade Ukraine as utterly irrational. I disagree. It’s horrific, but not irrational.

To understand why the invasion was rational for Putin, we have to step into his shoes. Three beliefs came together at the same time in his calculus:

  1. Ukraine’s condition as a country

  2. Russian military’s condition

  3. The West’s geopolitical condition

  4. Ukraine’s condition. Putin spent the last 20 years believing that Ukraine is not a real nation and, at best, should be a satellite state. Maidan ended any hope of keeping Ukraine independent and pro-Kremlin. He thought the West was behind it.Image

If Ukraine’s government cannot be kept independent and pro-Kremlin covertly, as he likely concluded, then he will overtly force it to be. He also started to believe his own propagandists that Ukraine is run by a Nazi-Bandera junta. Perfect pretext to “de-Nazify” Ukraine.

  1. Russian military. The Kremlin spent the last 20 years trying to modernize its military. Much of that budget was stolen and spent on mega-yachts in Cyprus. But as a military advisor you cannot report that to the President. So they reported lies to him instead. Potemkin military

  2. The West. The Russian ruling elite believed its own propaganda that Pres. Biden is mentally inept. They also thought the EU was weak because of how toothless their sanctions were in 2014. And then the U.S. botched its withdrawal from Afghanistan, solidifying this narrative.

If you believe all three of the above to be true and your goal is to restore the glory of the Russian Empire (whatever that means), then it is perfectly rational to invade Ukraine.

He miscalculated on all three, but that doesn’t make him insane. Simply wrong and immoral.

So, in my opinion, he is rational. Given that he is rational, I strongly believe he will not intentionally use nuclear weapons against the West. I say intentionally because indiscriminate shelling near a nuclear power plant can cause an unintentional nuclear disaster in Ukraine.

I will take it a step further. The threat of nuclear war is another example of his rationality. The Kremlin knows it can try to extract concessions, whether from Ukraine or the West, by saber-rattling its last remaining card in the deck: nuclear weapons.

The ultimate conclusion here is that the West should not agree to any unilateral concessions or limit its support of Ukraine too much for the fear of nuclear war.

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Wallace’s heroes

Assuming Putin is still a rational actor all he has is the threat of nuclear. He knows if it came to it he would get annihalted. All the more reason for the West to get tougher and force the issue

Clare Daly would call this woman “a warmonger”, as she cheerleads the destruction of the Ukrainian people and state on Irish national radio.

The Russians are animals

By God

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This was proven during World War 2 when they raped innocent women across Eastern Europe while they moved towards Berlin