Continuing the discussion from State of the Nation - Irish Soccer Review:
###Four Years on
Four years after limping out of Euro 2012 in ignominy at the Last 16 stage, Ireland progressed all the way to the Round of 16 before exiting bravely. There is a wave of optimism about the Irish team that is markedly different from the forlorn reaction to our last finals appearance. Is this misplaced giddiness or a fair reflection on the healthy state of Irish international football?
The consensus that Euro 2012 was something of a nadir for Irish football is curious. It was a rare appearance at a major finals and Ireland were drawn against the winners, the runners-up and a very good Croatian team. The performances were poor, dreadful at times, but the results were not unexpected.
The 2016 group was not much easier than the one four years ago, so finishing third instead of fourth represents a genuine improvement. The larger tournament may have benefited some countries but for Ireland it was a tough group to encounter having emerged from a tough qualifying draw.
Irish people certainly like a bandwagon but positivity and the Irish national soccer team haven’t been familiar bedfellows for a long time. There is more to the prevailing mood than simple overreactions to decent results. The results were fine, the performances were generally decent, but it’s the player profile of this squad that gives most reason to be excited.
###Youthful
Ireland had the oldest squad in this tournament, but that was an age profile bolstered by the likes of Robbie Keane and Shay Given who were not key players. The average age of the starting eleven that fell to Spain in 2012 was almost 30. In 2016 that had fallen to 27.3. Two and a half years doesn’t seem like an awful gap, but that’s the difference between peak performance and being on the wane, and aggregated across 11 players it begins to have an effect.
In 2012, only one player of 25 or under featured in the first 2 games – Simon Cox. He was replaced for the final game by Kevin Doyle who was 3 years older. Cox was relatively new on the international scene at that time but his early promise, which was in itself surprising, had already begun to wane by the time of that tournament. He did not represent a thrilling glimpse of a bright footballing future.
The other youthfulish team members from 2012 have all struggled to push on also. Aiden McGeady started the qualifying campaign very brightly but couldn’t get on the Sheffield Wednesday bench by the end of the season. Stephen Ward had an almost identical experience but in reverse. Sean St Ledger went off the rails completely for a while and looks to be finished his international career already.
Fast forward four years and Simon Cox is replaced by four players all 25 or under. The new captain is 27 and the number of players over 30 in the starting XI has been reduced from 6 to 2.
###Backbone
Most significantly, those under 25 show genuine promise at becoming a backbone for this Irish team. Shane Duffy is the least experienced and least proven member of that quartet. He looks talented but rash, brave but naïve. His international future looks bright but not guaranteed.
The real promise lies in the midfield trio of McCarthy, Hendrick and Brady. For all the talk about Wes Hoolahan being the most gifted Irish player in the squad, he doesn’t match the composite talents of Brady or Hendrick. They are gifted on the ball, industrious without it and bring an energy and intelligence to the Irish midfield that has been absent for many years. In players like Keith Andrews, Darron Gibson and Glenn Whelan, Ireland have had to make do with adequate but predictable midfielders for a generation. There is an opportunity now to build a team and a system around the guile of Brady, the energy of Hendrick and the determination of McCarthy.
McCarthy is the most experienced and most criticised of that trio. He suffers from wild expectations that greeted his early selections and some struggles for form that resulted in him being written off by some of the same media personalities who proclaimed him the new Messiah before he had earned a starting role. The truth lies somewhere between those two positions but there were signs in the tournament that were not just promising, but deliciously appetising.
He has picked up some understandable blame for missing midfield runners for a couple of goals, but his screening work in the first half of all the matches was immense. He may need more coaching to play a holding role on his own, he may need more fitness and he may need more concentration but he has the tools to be a very important part of a very impressive midfield for at least three more competitive campaigns.
####The Future
This appears to be Ireland’s best squad since 2002. It lacks the star quality of a Robbie Keane or a Damien Duff. But its best and youngest players are in pivotal positions. Mark Kinsella and Matt Holland were fine players but they didn’t get anyone excited. We may have had a better and deeper group of players 14 years ago, but we didn’t have the same promise in central areas.
Ireland can continue forward with an unchanged back five, and the same trio in midfield supported by James McClean. Swap Daryl Murphy (who had an excellent tournament) for Jon Walters and that’s an impressive team for a couple of years until Walters and Murphy run out of steam.
The well of optimism runs a little shallow when you consider the depth of midfield and attacking options. Hendrick limping early against France was a near catastrophe. Whelan, Meyler, Quinn, Hoolahan can all function in a midfield – none can fulfil anything like the same role of Hendrick or Brady. McCarthy deserves not to be shunted forward every time there’s an injury there, he needs experience playing the same role each time. The expectation is Arter and O’Kane can add something different but that expectation is based more on hope than evidence.
Further forward the problems are even more acute. Aiden McGeady needs to start playing regular football before he can become a realistic alternative to McClean – even still, they’re very different types of player. And there is no obvious new wave of strikers to challenge Long, Murphy and Walters for one of those two spots. David McGoldrick doesn’t set the world alight at club level, Adam Rooney and Anthony Stokes are capable at a certain level. There are very few Irish strikers scoring regularly at club level, none of them are blooded at international level.
The temptation for Martin O’Neill will be to make the most of his available players for each game and put together a system that best suits those who are fit and experienced. The danger with such a plan is that it will inevitably lead to Hendrick being pushed out to the wing again, Brady being deployed in 3 or 4 positions and McCarthy filling in wherever there’s a gap in midfield. Ireland can benefit instead from investing and trusting in those key players in their key positions.
A full house for the visit of Oman at the end of August is inevitable.