Super Bowl 51: Smith to take the Chiefs to Championship glory
Time for Alex Smith to step up and take the Chiefs all the way
The AFC - Chiefs Kan be Conference champs
New England Patriots: AFC No.1 Seed
Super Bowl odds 3.10 (85/40)
In a triumph for state-the-obvious fans, the New England Patriots find themselves in possession of the AFC East, and another top seeding for their perennial play-off push. That said, all was not so rosy at the season’s outset (with Tom Brady suspended) and they have played much of the second half without talismanic tight end Rob Gronkowski (and Danny Amendola).
Still, in signature style, Bill Belichick and Brady have fashioned a sound receiving crew out of Martellus Bennett and Julian Edelman, allied to the recent shrewd signing of Michael Floyd. LeGarrette Blount has done the rest with his consistent ground gains, while the personnel absenteeism in the Pats’ secondary has been shored up by the evolution of a few misfits who pounce on any opposition misfires.
Even messiahs don’t turn water into wine as regularly as The Hooded One, and Belichick’s genius may run dry on the Conference Championship - just as it did last term. True, the Pats have the homefield advantage this year, but this is also the year in which no truly domineering team has emerged on either side of the national divide.
More games this season have been decided by eight points or fewer, which means that the postseason should follow a similarly tight suit. So at the current cramped quotes, I’d swerve New England and their fading All-American Anti-Hero (despite what the numbers say) in favour of some hotter quarterbacks who haven’t enjoyed Brady’s trademark luck with a soft schedule.
Kansas City Chiefs: AFC No.2 Seed
Super Bowl odds 11.00 (10/1)
While everyone’s been waxing lyrical about the Patriots’ ability to win in the air, on the ground, or on defense, Andy Reid has patiently developed a team that goes one step further: special teams. Which gives Kansas City a complete set of strengths. For, while the Chiefs have kept a strong running assault and a doughty D, in recent weeks the wraps have finally come off Alex Smith game-manager extraordinaire to reveal a frustrated stud quarterback. Okay, that might be stretching it, especially due to the small sample size of evidence. However, when you remember that Smith retains twin-threat versatility with some racy rears of his own, most rival defenses will be having kittens. And that’s before you throw in the human highlight reel, more commonly referred to as Tyreek Hill (12 TDs). The Chiefs hold a 23-5 record since mid-October last term, and I make them favourites to emerge from a top-heavy AFC.
Pittsburgh Steelers: AFC No.3 Seed
Super Bowl odds 11.00 (10/1)
Pittsburgh complete this Conferences’s troika of titanic teams, who will be pitched against some flickering lesser lights. In a nutshell, the Steelers are possessed of perhaps the quickest-strike offense in the league, and will benefit hugely from having their main offensive weapon, Le’Veon Bell, back for the play-offs (he was crucially absent last year). Ben Roethlisberger to Antonio Brown is the connection that should take care of business, but a dodgy defensive outlet and a third seeding (Big Ben was absent for a couple of mid-season games, vitally against New England too) means I’ll marginally favour Kansas.
Houston Texans: AFC No.4 Seed
Super Bowl odds 75.00 (74/1)
Once again, the Houston Texans barely scrambled out of the screaming crèche of incomprehensibility that is the AFC South. Sadly, now they’re about be asked to make a cogent case against the big boys. Unlike last year, they have zero momentum, and little defensive electricity without JJ Watt-age. Which means their hopes reside in a quagmire at quarterback where Brock Osweiler has proven totally ineffectual, while their hand-picked draft alternative in Tom Savage is now concussed. A dustbin would fancy its chances at pouching more sustainable returns. However, at least the Texans start out at home against Oakland, another side with its own calamities at QB.
Oakland Raiders: AFC No.5 Seed
Super Bowl odds 110.00 (109/1)
Derek Carr’s untimely break has thrown the Oakland Raiders out of the AFC’s number-two seeding, and totally out of play-off contention, if you agree with the Las Vegas lines. Trouble is, it appears the Raiders squad have also had a peek, and agree. First up, it’s a basement battle: Matt McGloin-or-Connor Cook (Carr’s stand-ins) versus Tom Savage-or-Brock Osweiler in Houston. Even if Oakland comes through, their ensuing “privilege” is a trip to the New England Patriots in the Divisional Round. Who wants to star as the punchbag a primetime beat’em-up?
AFC No.6 Seed: Miami Dolphins
Super Bowl odds 110.00 (109/1)
Miami have done well to make the postseason, even beating Pittsburgh (their opponents in Wildcard weekend) comfortably along the way. However, much has changed since then. They now travel to a streaking 7-0 outfit, with a banged-up star RB (repeated hits to Jay Ajayi upper body are taking their toll), and likely without their first-choice QB (Ryan Tannehill is still recovering from a sprained ACL and MCL in his left knee). The Steelers, though, are healthy on offense, despite fielding a D that rates a pale imitation to the Steel Curtain of yesteryear. Matt Moore will need a career game to keep Miami in the mix beyond Sunday.
The NFC - Everyone bar the Lions has a chance in wide open conference
NFC No.1 Seed: Dallas Cowboys
Super Bowl odds 5.40 (9/2)
The surprise package of the current campaign, with a rookie class stepping up in Tony Romo’s absence to defy their tender years. Admittedly, perhaps the best O-line in football has powered Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott’s youthful tandem, and Romo can consider himself unlucky. Homefield advantage is considered key to Prescott maintaining his composure under center, but it may actually ramp up the weight of expectation on his young shoulders. Unlike in the AFC, there are no dominant forces in the NFC, where everyone (except maybe Detroit) will fancy their chances of building up some momentum for a Super Bowl appearance on neutral territory. I say the Boys’ chances will be lassoed along the way by an outlaw riding into their hometown.
NFC No.2 Seed: Atlanta Falcons
Super Bowl odds 10.00 (9/1)
Matt Ryan is enjoying an MVP year, with no brakes on the offensive juggernaut that he helms. However, this has happened before, and the suspicion persists that “Matty Ice” melts when the mercury of competition rises. That said, Ryan has kept his composure when it’s mattered most during the regular season, and the Atlanta Falcons are the number-two seeds on merit. On the other side of the park, however, a porous secondary always gives the opposition a chance, and they’ll be a few hot hands in the Conference believing they can keep pace with Ryan and Julio Jones.
NFC No.3 Seed: Seattle Seahawks
Super Bowl odds 15.00 (14/1)
The Seattle Seahawks will rest their Wildcard opener on the shoulders of Russell Wilson and their defense, which will attempt to decommission the cannon arm of Matthew Stafford. Head coach Pete Carroll nearly botched his play-off by pulling his starters when New Orleans were rallying in Atlanta (worst case: a loss to the Niners could’ve blown a first-round bye) but the Hawks clung on, and avoided the white-hot Packers to boot. Carroll’s Legion of Boom remain fearless, but Seattle may have lost a yard on both sides of the ball. Armed, but not as dangerous.
NFC No.4 Seed: Green Bay Packers
Super Bowl odds 11.00 (10/1)
Green Bay were as good as Aaron Rodgers’ word. They “ran the table” with six successive wins, rediscovering their receivers under Rodgers’ pulsating paw, and even throwing in some effective back-up running from Ty Montgomery, and a few big plays from a depleted secondary. Nevertheless, this all starts and ends with Rodgers. In his past six games, he’s completed 15 passing touchdowns, with no interceptions for an off-the-charts passer rating of 121. If he can keep it up, the Pack can still go all the way.
NFC No.5 Seed: New York Giants
Super Bowl odds 30.00 (29/1)
My dark horses at the beginning of the season, Big Blue remains a threat to anyone in the open savannah of play-off country. Their defense has been a revelation, while OBJ and a talented receiving corps have only really been let down by their general in Eli Manning. Considering Manning Jnr has made his name blowing cold and then hot at the right time, a road-trip ride to his third Super Bowl is again on the cards. And The Book of Eli is no work of fiction, with two Super Bowl rings already. Even if the Packers do lie in wait at Lambeau Field on Sunday night.
NFC No.6 Seed: Detroit Lions
Super Bowl odds 90.00 (89/1)
The Detroit Lions are the stragglers in the betting, but will have nothing to fear and even less to lose when they journey to an intimidating CenturyLink Field in Seattle. Bar Jim Caldwell’s job. The Hawks are as vulnerable as they’ve been in a while, and Matthew Stafford-to-Golden Tate has the rapier speed to silence even the legendary Legion of Boom. Nevertheless, the Lions, who reversed into the postseason on a three-game losing streak, have trailed in the fourth quarter in 15 of their 16 games this year. Has Caldwell’s luck run out?
And the conclusion is…
However, when all’s said and done, in the year of no pre-eminent powerhouse, nothing should surprise in these play-offs. Therefore, I’m going to take Kansas City, the one team with the no weak links, although they will have to emerge from the tougher Conference. The Chiefs can do it all, they just have to pull all those threads together for three more games. They’ll likely have to repeal Big Ben, and turn Tom Brady into the sort of handsome throw-rug you like to take outside to beat. Then Alex Smith can finally morph from game-manager into game-changer for the Super Bowl. Stranger things have happened to frogs and princes. Next stop: Disneyland.
Recommended Bet
5pts Back Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl @ 11.00 (10/1)
), a woeful line, 2 quality recievers and nothing else.