TFK Capitalist Pigs Thread


Bit of bacon a bit of cabbage and a spud on a big cocktail stick.


Nasdaq hits all time intraday high of 7,806. @labane1917 when is this bear market you have been calling for the past year going to start.




We are in the beginning stages of a bear market already. The Nasdaq is only one index held up by 4 or 5 large caps, a sure sign of the end. January was the high for the broader market and that high will not be seen again for a long time. The market will likely sputter along for a while but a 50% drop is coming, later this year or early in 2019.

This is a very dangerous market, huge levels of margin debt and insane valuations. Very similar to 1929 and we know how that ended.


Mate, this bear market and crash has been called consistently for the past 24 months and a few minor blips aside nothing has materialised and nothing seems to deter it. Rising bond yields, trade war, EM currency collapse, China equity 30%+ wiped off since January, all time high p/e valuations, OPEC issues. Every time it hollows it rebounds. It seems the China equity collapse over the last two weeks has just resulted in a rotation into US equities. Yes, the Dow and S&P have not got back to Jan highs but they are not far off it. The Fed has flagged 4 rate rises, has been following through with them and the yield curve was close to inversion a couple weeks ago (sign of a recession) yet still the market marches on. If rate rises, marking the end of cheap credit, trade barriers and corporate debt troubles can’t start this bear market, what will. Note, I’ve lost a small fortune in calling it wrong this year through CFD’s. People/analysts calling the crash will eventually call it correct but you must admit you’ve been wrong here.


Is there an element that the FANG like stocks that are holding up the market will just continue to grow and the market is kept up by them?

They are taking over the world, destroying local businesses and lager incumbents who might not even be listed. Netflix’s just increased their programming budget by $4bn, that’s bigger than the BBC’s budget. For a company that only started original programming half a decade ago, that’s scary. These companies are eating market share of everyone.


It’s better to be wrong early than late when it comes to bear markets, capital preservation is more important than squeezing out the last bit of gains. The run up from Trump’s election to Jan 2018 was a typical blow off top, and yes the market is ignoring all bad news as it always does in this phase, but… as always the blow off top is driven by retail investors and the smart money has exited or is hedged.

I agree though that on a relative basis US equities and large caps specifically are still the safest, China is imploding and will only get worse, and I would be nervous about another banking crisis lurking in Europe.


Shorting the market is a mugs game. When it feels hot just get out and get back in later.
The market can be wrong longer than you can be solvent


My margin has been called but thanks for that advice, pal.


Who or what the fuck is buying FAANG shares to drive the Ndq 1.5% in one day to an all time high in the 11th year of a bull market. Christ, a bad day.


I think you were probably correct in your earlier post regarding China. The amount of real estate being bought in CA by Chinese investors is at insane levels, so you have to assume wealthy Chinese investors are getting their money out in the eventuality the Chinese markets completely collapse and the government just seizes their assets.


Pal, @labane1917 has only to be lucky once, you have to be lucky every day.


What in God’s name are you talking about?


There’s a lot wrong with it, but only for the EU we’d be fucked.



This is a nonsensical ruling and one that will be overturned on appeal. Android is a Google owned open source product that is provided free to phone makers and consumers. The simple response from Google here is to start charging a licensing fee for their product.


They are philanthropists really


The ruling has nothing to do with Android and everything to do with every Android phone having to come with Chrome, maps etc installed or they can’t use it. My understanding is that it’s not so much an issue for Apple as it’s their phone with their products, whereas google are forcing Samsung etc to pre install their products.
It’s the same as the windows ruling way back about every PC having internet explorer pre installed.


Google are the good guys.


Don’t Do Evil