TFK Capitalist Pigs Thread


#2245

How long did It take to recoup the losses of the crash? 18 months?


#2246

Depends on the market but more like 6 years I’d say. But it’s just kept going since. Doubled in the last 5 years or so


#2247

3 years for the US stock market.


#2248

That’s unreal in fairness.


#2249

QE has to go somewhere.


#2250

When good news is bad news, it’s time to worry.


#2251

If you wanted to start shorting popular stocks such as Apple, Amazon, Netflix, etc. Or anything else for that matter you wanted to short, how would you go about it? Can someone ladybird it and if it’s worth the effort/money? @Julio_Geordio


#2252

Open up an IG Index or City Index spread betting a/c. You can go long or short individual equities and indexes (Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq).

Recent legislation has compelled these firms to differ between professional and retail investors, difference being much less leverage available to retail customers (you would most likely be classified as a retail investor unless you have a track record, or large financial investments).

For example, in order for you to short Netflix 1 dollar per cent of its share price movement you would need 1,200 dollars+ in margin. Taking positions on individual shares is capital consuming.


#2253

You could also open an account with Davy’s or another broker and buy a CFD to short individual shares but this requires more capital and margin than the spread indexes.


#2254

The easiest way to do it is to short the Nasdaq 100 using ETFs, as the companies you mentioned and a few others make up a large portion of the index. PSQ is 1X the inverse of the Nasdaq 100, QID is 2X the inverse and if you’re feeling exceptionally brave SQQQ is 3X the inverse.

Momentum is definitely weakening in the sector, the next few weeks will be critical as earnings start to come in. Rumor has it that tariffs and emerging market slowdown is hitting Tech hard.


#2255

Cfd. What could possibly go wrong?


#2256

What’s an ETF?


#2257

Very simplistically it’s a fund that you buy a share in that will have a specific purpose and only do that. In this case short the Nasdaq.
CFDs are an absolute mugs game so if you really want to short the market these are probably the safest bet.


#2258

If you don’t know what an ETF is you shouldn’t go anywhere near a market never mind short it.

But if you had bought SQQQ yesterday like I told you, you’d be up almost 10% today.


#2259

A reasonably good indicator on shorting the market is watch what volatility futures are doing, the ratio of VIX to VXV and the structure of VIX Futures. The signal to short is VIX/VXV >0.92 and VIX futures switching from positive to negative.

At the moment VIX/VXV is 1.02 and VIX futures are at -2.9%, so there is a fair degree of fear building.


#2260

Exactly


#2261

X/X=I


#2262

:grinning:


#2263

bye, bye stock market, it was nice to know you


#2264

The demos arranged it for the mid terms