TFK Capitalist Pigs Thread


Make zx spectrums I think.


Trying to push existing customers with on premises systems to their cloud offering is about all they are making money on.


I know little about economics but I’ve 3 points that might suggest this shit might get wild:-

  1. Weren’t p/e earnings at an historic low quite recently? Wasn’t that part of the reason bitcoin did so well last year? A lot of QE money with nowhere good for it to go.

  2. You can do a Google search for US unemployment rates and Google will immediately generate a table for you. DO THIS SEARCH. The table Google generates suggests unemployment usually skies very quickly and then recovers very gradually down to about 3.5% when it usually spikes suddenly again.

  3. US debt levels.

What’s the difference between a correction and a bear market? 6 months?


The primary difference is a bear market is typically (although not always) associated with a recession, while corrections are more frequent and generally healthy. On average you get a correction at least once a year, while bear markets average more like every 7 years. Corrections are roughly (10-15%) and recover in a few months while bear markets can be (40-50%) and typically take 1.5 - 2 years to recover.

By every valuation metric, we are at extremely overvalued levels and haven’t had a bear market since 2008/9. The jury is still out on whether this is a correction or bear market, but outside the US the bear argument is gathering steam (China and the DAX in particular). A China hard landing will likely precipitate the next crash.




The only thing we have to fear is fear itself



Apple announce the December quarter is likely to be disappointing, down 7% after hours.

That could be the end of the little rally we just had.


Would the US indexes be materially affected one stock?


Apple is the biggest US company in terms of market cap, 4% of the S&P 500 and 11% of the Nasdaq 100, but more importantly it’s now a bell weather stock for the overall market. If Apple goes into the decline, the overall market will join it.


You’ve been calling the bear market for a good 7 years now. It’ll have to happen eventually.


News of a possible trade deal between US and China will totally eclipse it.


Sure even a stopped clock is right twice a day


This is the first bear market I’ve called since 2009.
I have however called eight (8) of the past six (6) corrections.

This is a normal counter trend rally in a bear market, markets never go straight up or down. The US economy is overheating, and the Fed will continue to raise rates which will cause a debt crisis globally and a crash.


It did for a while, and now the jobs data especially strong wage growth has eclipsed that.




It’s an inside joke in the world of forecasting.


Larry Kudlow, economic advisor to the Trump administration, contradicts Trump and says he (Trump) has not asked his cabinet for a plan on China trade and expects more tariffs if anything. Markets tanking again.


It’s increasing clear that that the US markets and leadership are largely the cause of all the recent uncertainty and skittishness. That’s after 2008 where it was pretty clear that Wall St was the root cause of the global crash too.


Which markets are tanking? The Dow is only down about 1% today.