TFK Capitalist Pigs Thread


#2346

Hon the Dow


#2347

It’s down 400 points from it’s high earlier today. There is a clear reversal after Trumps’ spoofing on China was exposed.


#2348

The Dow touching 26,000 again. 2% or so off it’s Sep all time high. @labane1917 is going to have to admit he got this one wrong again.

If a China trade deal is done at the G20 it will go to another milestone.


#2349

It’s unsurprising we are getting a bounce due to the “blue wave” turning into a blue tinkle.

The DOW is only 30 companies, look at the broader market. The NYSE exchange which has 2800 companies did not get back to its Jan high in Sept and is still 7% below the Jan high and trending down on longer term charts. As I said previously you will always get counter rallies in a bear market just as you get corrections in a bull market. Globally equities are also trending down since Jan.

I will admit I am wrong about market direction if the NYSE goes above the Jan high.


#2350

Two days in row now where we have had failed rallies on Wall Street. Apple down 20% from it’s recent high. If we can’t get some kind of sustainable rally tomorrow, look out below. The 200 day MA trending down and potential for a death cross is a very ominous sign.


#2351

So what are you saying? Buy Bitcoin ?


#2352

Bitcoin will be a screaming buy when the SEC authorize the first ETF.


#2353

Interesting that Buffet has added to positions in banks. More attractive in a rising rate environment?


#2354

Not very attractive if Maxine Waters gets her way and regulates the fuck out of them.


#2355

#2356

He’s full of shit, he exited the market in 1987 predicting a great depression mark II and didn’t get back in. The market was back to where it was by Jan 1988 and the 1990s made a fool of him. In general market timing is a fools errant, although you can make money during corrections, so long as you are brave enough to go back aggressively when things turn around. Right now is a time to be cautious, just based on valuations and earnings that are possible maxed out for this cycle.


#2357

What, so he kept calling a crash, and was eventually right a decade or two later?


#2358

He built a career out of calling one crash but it was his stopped clock moment, he’s got nothing right since. To be fair he could well be right again this time. You wouldn’t need to be Nostradamus to think things are looking a little shakey all over. Then again I think the market has been insane for well over 5 years now and it keeps climbing all the time so what do I or any of us know. It’s only a matter of time for some of those tech stocks though.


#2359

Can you think of anyone else like this :thinking:?


#2360

No. He called the crash in 1987 and has dined off that call since as a hedge fund manager. This was his previous call in June of this year, predicting a stock market surge at the end of 2018. He has now altered his view (without admitting he was wrong of course) and joined more astute commentators like @labane1917 in urging caution.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/paul-tudor-jones-says-stock-121500913.html

I actually think we will see a mild equity rally soon into the end of the year (the traditional Santa Clause rally) and then all hell will break out in 2019.


#2361

Equities under severe pressure again this morning. Bitcoin down another 8.5%, just above 5,000.


#2362

There’s some split between two of bitcoins largest holders, they can cause another “fork” if they want like bitcoin cash did a while back. Means users have to choose which side they want to go down, bit of a mess.


#2363

Great buying opportunity soon though one would imagine.


#2364

Carlos Ghosn, the chairman of Nissan, chairman of Mitsubishi Motors, and CEO of Renault SA, has been arrested in Japan for allegedly understating his compensation by tens of millions of dollars over a period of five years. How the fuck could the bean counters not know what they were paying him and report it correctly?


#2365

The same lads that said the banks were solvent?