TFK Capitalist Thread

:thinking::thinking:

Trump orders all US companies to leave China and come home.

Shit is about to get serious.

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Why in the fuck would they take the lead of the UK. Its one of the main aims of fiscal policy in this country to encourage additional pension savings…probably so they can ultimately means test the state pension

Thankfully loads of business don’t give a fuck what Trump thinks. He’ll wake up tomorrow and forget he said it. And then he’ll wake up the next day and tell people he ‘won’.

China are not just rent-free, they are actually charging him rent to live in Trump’s head.
And they’re in there, Bigly.

Dunno mate, but watch this space. It’s the 2 million they’ll be aiming at, not pension provision per se.
It’s not my fault btw

US equities down 2% today and Europe down 3%. Dow Transports which generally is a good indicator of where the market is going is down almost 10% since mid September.

You must have predicted half a dozen “crashes” in the last 2 years. When you’re eventually calling wolf at the right time it will be through persistence rather than any great insight.

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Incorrect, I have never predicted a crash in the past two years or the past decade for that matter. I have alerted TFK readers to corrections which potentially could turn into crashes. Contrary to popular opinion, market timers do much better than buy and hold investors over the long run as they avoid the worst bear markets.

Global equity markets have been going nowhere for two years. We are only down 5% from recent highs so nothing to get too worried about yet, but it’s hard to see potential catalysts to move markets higher, the risk is to the downside.

Hmmm.

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So have you moved completely into cash or is your plan to “time” the market ?

I’ve been largely in cash (MM which pays about 2%) since mid 2018. I follow the long term weekly chart for Dow Industrials (DJTA) which turned negative early in 2018, first time went negative since 2015, has been + since mid 2016. I trade a small amount for fun (closer to gambling), UPRO/SPXU which are 3X the market or 3X the inverse.

You what mate?

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How is that 2% cash return generated in this rate environment? Some kind of bond? With negative cost of funds surely some form of risk free carry trade there for corporates

USD rates are 2% at the min

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Was reading yesterday Ulster Bank can’t automatically charge their big corporate depositors negative interest rates because the IT System wont let them input a negative rate.

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US Money Market funds are paying on average 2% at present, they were closer to 2.5% before the recent Fed rate reductions. It’s one of the oddities of the current environment that a MM fund pays more than a 10 year bond (currently the US 10 year is at 1.6%).

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The startup scene is gone mental on cheap money

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The lads are flat out working on it. Solution to be delivered ‘mostly’ next week.

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