https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/26/corn-futures-jump-to-a-7-year-high-on-supply-concerns.html
I am seeing component price rises month by month this year which are being attributed to covid, far east supply chain and raw materials price. So far they have been handed down to us and we have handed them to the market. Don’t know when that will break but typical 10% price hikes will hurt on plastics and metals.
Meanwhile copper is really hitting the heights, cable up 20-25% since last summer
Is that not a feature of markets now - they are jumpy.
I don’t trust economics as a predictive science at all.
It’s an example of across the board commodity price increases. The people will get restless.
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Typical container shipping costs to the UK, have gone from 1750 dollars to about 7000 dollars and are currently settled at 5000 dollars since December 20. The initial reasoning seemed to be Brexit and shipping companies not being able to quickly get their containers back out but it seems there is far more to it than that. That’s what is driving the raw material price increases.
Capacity after canal incident big factor too. Outbidding for space on vessels saw prices driven higher. Still feeling it
US equities rocket up to new highs after one of the biggest jobs misses in history, +266k added against an expectation of +1M, some analysts were saying +2M. Futures were up before the announcement in anticipation of a strong number, but the market has decided all news is good news. Main reason given for sluggish job growth is (surprise!) people on enhanced unemployment have no interest in going back to work.
Yeah - I laughed at that earlier. Presumably markets are up because they reckon interest rates are less likely to be increased in the short term of poorer job numbers. Mad logic 
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Conventional Economic theory is dead
It’s like Saint and Greavsie trying to explain the Coach Klopp development index
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Goldilocks market theory. Recover strong enough to bring inflation just over 2% but not so much that rates rise faster than expected.
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Exactly.
Bad news is good news for these markets.
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Question. It seems to me that inflation is absolutely roaring whatever headline figures they try and spout. Building materials, land prices, house prices, petrol, transport, you name it, it’s getting dearer by the month.
From what I understand, most major western economies/governments simply can’t service their debts if interest rates rise to even a level regarded as low traditionally.
How will this play out in the short, medium and long term cc @the accountancy brigade / ifscpira??
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Inflation is good for those in debt
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But surely the only lever to counter it for the general population is an interest rate rise, or series of?
At some point those in power will have to do something to curb what appears to be rampant inflation?
Short term central banks will remain in denial and claim there is no inflation or it is transient. Medium term this will be exposed as complete bullshit. Long term they will be forced to raise rates which will have a devastating impact.
I’d imagine inflation will be taken care of by the impending economic car crash. It’ll be the least of their worries
Governments in debt themselves like inflation becuase it increases the tax take from higher VAT and income tax as wages and products increase in value… It also makes the value of their debt smaller in relative terms
We haven’t had any material inflation in years… I’d say they will be happy with a few years of it now
Would be a concern for Irish government that they have loads of bonds maturing in next few years could be expensive to refi
Rising interest levels can be tolerated in the public sector as long as the bonds are centrally held and you are in effect paying interest to yourself. Likewise for corporates, the state will have to continue to prop them up. Joe Soap will struggle with his car loan however.
An aul correction is needed though given the unprecdented government debt, regardless of how cheap it is.
Central banks are just kicking the can down the road for the last 10 years printing money,
Did the real economy every really recover from the financial crash? I’m not so sure.
Crypto is where it’s at in inflation.
Buy the dip.