He was ran from the forum.
When capitalism died in 07 he fled the forum
QE4 is now looking more likely than a rate hike, which is probably why the US market turned bad news into good news earlier. Can’t see it until early to mid 2016, and then its off on one last leg up for this aging bull. Q1 - 3 had no impact on the underlying economy, no reason to expect QE4 will be any different. It will make a few rich folks much richer though.
No fear of those lads, they can literally borrow what ever they want and pay fuck all back on it while making savage profit on whatever company they takeover.
I see the central bank were taken for €32k in a phishing scam and it was very nearly €1.6m
Link??
Today marks the 28th anniversary of the stock market crash in 1987, coined “Black Monday”. Some consider today to be of a little more significance because it’s of the few anniversaries of this date that falls on a Monday. On this occasion though it doesn’t seem to have had much of an effect on sentiment here, most major indexes showing modest gain for the dat.
What are your outlook for global equities in the near and medium term? General gut feels welcome, also are fleshed out forecasts backed by tech/fun arguments. And for the craic, a call on S&Ps at xmas close, and Good Friday next year.
Wtf?
Buy low, sell high
[quote=“Tusa_Mise, post:888, topic:19965, full:true”].
What are your outlook for global equities in the near and medium term? General gut feels welcome, also are fleshed out forecasts backed by tech/fun arguments. And for the craic, a call on S&Ps at xmas close, and Good Friday next year.
[/quote]
Craic??? What beer do you drink on a Friday night out and Saturday night in?
Is that you Ben?
Thanks, though not very much in line with what I was after. I’ll nudge things along a little:
I’ve had rotten feeling about this rally in equities this passed few weeks, technically, the current intra-week rally has looked like a fairly typical dead cat bounce, and fundamentally we’ve seen all as expected resultant from the no hike in September. This rally should pretty much be over, as the Fed can only kick the can so far this time, allowing for the bears to take control again and begin huge avalanche second quarter next year. This is (I would assume) in line with the TFK sentiment index.
But, there is a very significant tech level in play as we speak, and the “could care less” reaction to the numbers last week have me now favouring an alternative scenario. Now we’re well into the heart of earnings season, so long as the Fed sit on their hands until Jan 2015 (despite the Fed minutes and Yellen comments, I can’t see an argument in favour of a hike given current technical landscape which is all that really matters) the big boys will look to save the 2015 books in the Santa rally (via a solid grind higher with lots of noise, 204x out of the way by this Friday, 2070 next week, 2050-2100 in November and a test of the high 2150 after the fed sit in early December) yard brushing all the shorts held by petty funds, retail, and anyone else who taking advice from the TFK Sentiment Index.
So, I’m calling a new all time S&P 500 high by Christmas. While I’m at it, Euro/FTSE/ASX stocks will have a similar bull run, Gold will give back most of it’s recent gains, USD will grind lower across major currencies, Euro/USD will see a few bumps around 1.1420 and finish out the year testing the 1.18 high.
Ben is my boyfriend.
Whatever the wankiest craft pale ale they have. What do you expect ¿
You could be right about an all time high by end of year as it would be quite unusual for that not to happen. Mostly for the reasons you mention, the big boys have to show above average returns and it is easy enough to ramp the markets given the quantity of chips they have to play with.
This recent rally is a short squeeze not a dead cat bounce. By mid Sept short interest was at an all time high so ripe pickings for the big players. As you say it is fizzling out. Stocks are very overbought short term. This week will be huge with over 30% of the S&P500 reporting. I think it’s going to be disappointing, the strong $ is really hurting revenue, so I think we will have another leg down between now and end of October that tests the August 24 low. 1860 by end of October, then another leg up and down in November, followed by a rally in mid to late December. Fuck knows what 2016 will bring, more of the same probably. I still stick by my earlier prognosis that we are in a bear market as if this were just a correction we should be back above the July highs by now.
The Fed are in a right pickle with conflicting statements by members daily. They have adopted a dangerous stance by now relying on Chinese data, who the fuck knows how valid their published data is. I suspect the Fed will use slightly better than forecast Chinese GDP and US data that is still OK to raise in December even though that’s a very unusual move. That in turn could cause a nasty downturn in January, especially if Q4 results and outlook continue weaker than anticipated. The high yield credit markets are very fragile due to energy companies on the brink, it wouldn’t take much to topple them.
I normally just hedge my equity positions with a volatility play when the VIX rises which has worked well for me for years. There is no breath in this market since mid 2014, even with this 2 week rally the % of S&P100 companies above their 200 day MA is only 40%. I exited all equity positions earlier this summer and now just trade modest amounts of SPXU and UPRO. You can’t hold them for long but if you’re not greedy you can catch a bit of each leg up and down. I don’t trust this market, the big boys will always find a way to get out, look at the mayhem on Aug 24 when you couldn’t get a bid for lots of ETFs and some dropped over 30% even though the underlying stocks were only down 5%.
We are back to bad news=good news though mate. No rate hike in sight, free money continues.
QE4 a distinct possibility. Further QE in Europe likely.
I don’t know where it all ends but there is plenty of underlying support in the near term.
On a technical point, we are not in a bear market, at least not by the generally understood terms.
A good rule of thumb I find is when lads on the internet think the world is over, buy equities. When they get all bulled up sell equities.
For example the S&P is up 8% since this lunatic predicted the end of the world.
Actually this fella is a great contra indicator he called the top here the day before the year to date lows. S&P up 9% since, FTSE up 7%.
I’m not saying you are wrong btw @anon7035031 just that calling tops or bottoms is a mugs game and generally retail investors like yourself cost themselves a couple of % a year swinging with the tides.
The Chinese are gas all the same. They target an annual GDP growth rate of 7%. “Experts” were forecasting growth of 6.8%. And the Chinese announce 6.9% this morning!!
The Chinese, a great bunch of lads.
US do the same though.