Alright, typical @Mac Friday night February post with Cheltenham predictions that will become laughable come 4 weeks time (as they usually focus on just Irish horses!). Would hate to ruin tradition. I’ll not be picking a favourite in any race. Also my pointing out of the NRFB scenario with BetVictor will likely become irritating but if there’s value then take it.
At the moment my ante post book stands as follows - all done Non Runner Free Bet with Bet Victor
09/11/13 - 1pt e/w Melodic Rendevous @ 25/1 - Champion Hurdle
13/11/13 - 1pt e/w Defy Logic @ 16/1 - Arkle
16/01/14 - 1.5pt e/w Last Installment @ 50/1 - Gold Cup
23/01/14 - 1pt e/w The Tullow Tank @ 10/1 - Supreme Novices
23/01/14 - 0.5 e/w Ballyglahseen @ 40/1 - Triumph Hurdle
Also, with Coral
06/01/14 - 1.5pt e/w Our Conor @ 9/1 - Champion Hurdle
Defy Logic and Ballyglasheen are as good as dead. If Wincanton goes ahead and Melodic romps in then I’ve a good thing. He’ll be over priced either way if he runs in CH. If he hasn’t a hope then Jeremy Scott won’t run him. Last Installment could be anything (not opening up that debate again). The Tullow Tank is still the winner of the Supreme for me if he runs. Our Conor will not be unplaced in my book.
Supreme Novices
Despite what the lads posted last night and Barry Connells & Phillip Fentons quotes this race is The Tullow Tanks for me. He could easily do what Champagne Fever did last year. Willies horse is far too short. If TTT doesn’t run then I’m agreeing with Fenway on Western Boy and I think he is massive value at 16’s. Fahy has proved himself as a big day trainer and won’t be bringing this lad across without a chance. He didn’t get any credit for his run against Vatour the last day with more people looking to point holes in Vatour than give this fella credit. The usual scenario applies that if he was trained by a more high profile trainer he’d be half the price. Jockey booking is key but he’s a steal at 16’s NRFB at the moment.
Arkle
A pure cunt of a renewal. I still don’t believe Champagne Fever will line up so the market is wrong. Trifolium won well at Xmas but couldn’t win a piss poor Supreme Novices. Rock on Ruby is apparently too old. The other English horses just don’t appeal to me. I still can’t go beyond Felix Younger. He’s as big as 16’s ante post which is crazy as he’ll relish Cheltenham ground over 2 miles. The other interesting one is Bright New Dawn who’s up against nothing on Sunday but looks a free bet at 25’s NRFB if all works out well. He won’t be that big if he turns up on the day.
Champion Hurdle
With 2 already backed Ante Post in this it would be foolish to look any further. Sticking with what I have for the moment as I think Our Conor will give me a serious run for my money.
Neptune
I like Faugheen but I’m not backing any favourites. Don’t fancy Tullow Tank as much for this if he lines up. Need a serious amount more study on this race.
RSA
Ballycasey is a stupid price for a horse that’s only run twice over fences and travelled horribly over to Cheltenham last year before being pulled out. Morning Assembly was my value bet before Pricewise took the value off him. However, despite the stats being against him, I’m going to stick with Morning Assembly as he’ll drift in the market between now and the day assuming Ballycasey turns up once the Segal impact wears off.
Coral Cup
All aboard the Bayan express… - take the 25/1 NRFB with BetVictor - I will be.
Queen Mother
Hidden Cyclone was my bit of value here before he was pulled out. If Benefficient runs then he’s a cracker of a bet at 10’s NRFB. If Sprinter Sacre runs then I don’t see Benefficient turning up so take the free bet.
Bumper
Golantilla to give Barry Connell his third winner of the festival. Take the 10’s on offer as he’s a definite starter from what I’ve been told.
JLT
@thedancingbaby will be all over Don Cossack here but the 10/1 about Oscar Whisky is an insult to be honest. He’s never won at the festival as he’s never had his best trip there. He lost a cunt of a race (quote Nicky Henderson) in November but has turned the tables since at the track. He’s a slick jumper of a fence and will be happy to go from the front or sit in and take over. I’d see Djakadam as his biggest thread but OW would be close to being max bet territory for me.
Ryanair
If Shark runs Hidden Cyclone he won’t be unplaced at 25/1. You can picture the race with him running in the first 3 the whole way around with everything cutting up behind him and him just being done for toe at the end. Given Benefficient is only 5/1 and barely beat him a short head at Xmas after a lengthy stewards enquiry its easy to see where the value is. However, given that Shark is liable to do anything I’d hold fire on going in heavy.
World Hurdle
At the risk of people saying I’m copying pricewise I would have to pick Rule the World and Zarkandar. More elaboration in due course.
Triumph
I like Guitar Pete. Slick jumper, but is probably under priced moreso because of Our Conor and Dessie. I also like Rutherglen but could see him heading for the Fred Winter. I want to see what will happen with Royal Irish Hussar who comfortably beat Guitar Pete in November before committing further. He had a bad race in December and Nicky took him away then. He’d want a run before the festival at the very least but 25’s is appealing if he’s going to turn up.
Albert Bartlett
I couldn’t give a shit to be honest. A cunt of a race that ruins a lot of younger horses. Would like to see the likes of Gilt Shadow turn up and run to form.
Gold Cup
I’ll be roaring Last Installment around the place like a mad man. I backed Silvinaco Conte last year and he would have been 2nd at worst only for falling. The Giant Bolster possibly the pick of those at fancy prices but who knows what will turn up.
Other things of note
Cause of Causes will likely win whatever handicap chase he’s entered, as will Ted Veale. If both turn up in the Grand Annual then I’m fucked if I’ve to pick one out of them! Mr Mole will also probably win a handicap chase. Rutherglen is worth a few quid e/w at 14’s NRFB for the Fred Winter as his mark is nice for it. I also think Foxrock is nailed on for the 4m chase but as he’s currently favourite I can’t be tipping him. I’ll also be backing Flaxen Flare wherever he runs once its a big runner handicap hurdle regardless of his weight.
Anyway, lots of losers here no doubt. At least I can’t be accused of after timing.
EDIT - I see Cause of Causes is only entered in the RSA, JLT and the 4m race. He won’t win either of the first 2 and I doubt he could get 4 miles in a horsebox - he’ll probably win 2 of them 