The election of the 30th Dáil

Probably about time to start a topic on this as we’ll hardly get through another year without an election.

I think the Sindo, awful rag that it is, carried a poll yesterday showing that the majority of us are in favour of a General Election right now. I don’t know how I’d know what i think I issues if it wasn’t for polls like this to tell me.

ANyhow FG came out today and revealed their plans to cut the Presidential term to five years among other things.

Anyone else think that this would just be bringing up more expensive elections for what is, basically, a lame duck role?

thats exactly what it is, its also a good example of why we need to stick with ff at this moment in time.

These people whinging about a general election, why don’t they just get out and get on with it instead of just waiting around for a transfer of power.

That’s the great thing about the Sindo. It thinks for you, so you don’t have to.

Pension age to be rolled out to 68 apparently.

It’s going to be rolled out over the next 20-30 years but I can def see FG and SF hopping all over this as it’s sure to spark a negative reaction from the elecorate unless handled with extreme care by the Govt.

Rumours abound that the Greens are going to be rotating their cabinet roles among existing TDs.

I could have had this as an exclusive 2 years ago but kept my mouth shut. Suspected that they’d always break the deal at some stage before the time came for the reshuffle but looks like they’re sticking with it.

Cuffe for Gormley I’m hearing.

Wow, this is amateur hour. The Greens aren’t denying it, which I guess means it’s likely to happen unless it gets widely ridiculed in the next few days. Which it really, really should. It seems Ryan will be staying and Gormley going to be a super junior with responsibility for Public Service reform. This I take it would mean that he would continue to sit at Cabinet, getting around the fact that his position as party leader would be rather strange if he didn’t and Ryan and Cuffe did.

Not sure how that “Super Junior” role would work for Gormley.

My information is that this was negotiated at the time of the Programme for Government. I’d say it doensn’t really suit FF (even if for no other reason than they’re happy to use Gormley as a scapegoat) but it was negotiated into the agreement at the time. So they’d have a hard time reneging on it.

Obviously there’s probably a few Greens not too keen on it too - notably Gormley who’d be losing out - but again I’m not sure they’ve a way out unless they get agreement from the likes of Cuffe. Reckon this was one of the things that De Búrca was talking about when she left - she mentioned agreeements not involving her that the leadership were delaying on implementing.

It may get ridiculed and that may be the only option for killing it but this would have drastic effects on the party structures. They don’t have a party leader that long remember, there’s a bit of bitterness around with how Gormley has seemed to be more power-hungry than the likes of Sargent was. Un;ess FF kill the idea then it’ll stick.

So it’s a planned move rather than an off the Cuffe one?

Does this affect ministerial pensions? Don’t they have to do just over a thousand days to get ministerial pensions or something like that, or is the thousand days up now?

Ah lovely. There should be a pun in every thread at a minimum. I’d like to see one in every post but if we started with every thread I’m sure we could improve from there.

You get a portion of the pension after 2 years which they’d get.

At least they’re keeping Gogarty from the reins of power I guess. Cuffe has never struck me as ministerial material either, I have to admit. I actually think Gormley’s not the worst and I quite like Eamon Ryan and hope they hold on to a few seats at the next election. I really hate deals like this though. They should have their best people in Cabinet and not start doling it out in advance as if it’s a prize like this. Reshuffles should be for removing underperforming and/or exhausted Ministers. Plenty of them on the FF side, but I find this staggering.

FF might just shrug their shoulders. If anything, it probably reduces the probability of the Greens pulling the plug on the Government any time soon.

Gogarty’s a loose cannon God love him. You couldn’t have him within a mile of cabinet.

Cuffe is possibly more suited to the environmental role than Gormley is. He has a planning background so his expertise is in that sort of area. I think he’s done well enough in the past couple of years (as a sort of ever so slightly dissenting voice) but it’s a different matter whether he’s cut out for government alright.

Take your point on the reshuffle agreements alright but that was part of their negotiation for government. This was all part of Sargent stepping down, they’d a new leader but they don’t have hierarchical structures. They didn’t want to impose seniority on the party so negotiated this internally first and got FF signoff on it.

Both Gormley and Cuffe will struggle to keep their seats but Cuffe has some chance I’d say. Can’t see Gormley threatening to get back in.

Dublin SE is a bollox of a constituency to call, but I’ll give myself a pat on the back by saying that I backed McDowell to lose his seat at better than evens before the last election and throw in my tuppence worth for the next election. FG should pick up a seat, as they will probably hoover up the McDowell vote. They’ve always reckoned they are FG voters at heart and Garret used always bring in a running mate. If the FG vote remains over 30% nationally, they will win two seats here. You’d imagine Ruairi Quinn will be safe, so the last seat will be between Gormley and Andrews. I wouldn’t rule Gormley out yet.

Anyone know what a body has to do to sort out a postal vote? Couldn’t bare to have to trawl through the government website I’m still recovering from my last visit.


is there anything that would result in you not sticking with FF?


I read a couple of quality articles on this topic the other day. It’s a remarkable feature of mordern democracies that no matter how low government approval sinks, no matter how dissatisfied the public are on major issues, incumbent return to office is still consistently in the order of 80-90%. It’s next to impossible to square this with any conventional notions of what democracy actually is.

astonishing to think that FF will seemingly never drop below 20%

really makes you wonder who those 20% are?
is it made up of the ones who decide not to emigrate or the lads who vote for fianna fáil cos they’ve “been a fianna fáil voter all me life, me father was a fianna fail man and his father before him”, repeated ad nauseum

sometimes you’d be wondering, is there any point giving these lads a vote at all?
(getting back on topic, that’s where i struggle with the notion of democracy)
if your vote defies logic, why should you be allowed one?
(i know, i know, dangerous ground, etc. but really, what do FF have to do to lose their support? I’m thinking genocide or at the very least a military invasion. perhaps switzerland)

apart from apartheid against the clearly less intelligent than yourself, are there any other nuggets of wisdom you are proposing?

TV3 were breaking this story last night as if it was Watergate or something.

The Greens did a secret deal to rotate their Ministers. Shock, shock, horror.

I am not sure if I like the thought of Gormley being in charge of Public Sector reform - he strikes me as being too gutless. Someone has to take on the unions and shake the whole thing up.

Jesus the hypocrisy.