Really? I suggest that you look at who ran in that race and what their current ratings are?
Nobody would have backed Hurricane Fly for Champion Hurdle after he struggled to beat Marito in Morgiana. He must have improved 15-20 pounds easily. No doubt he will improve again for Irish Champion Hurdle with a view to getting him to peak in March.
Look at the mark that Our Conor ran in Ryanair on his first start in open company. Itās not fallacy to suggest that he improve markedly for his next start (especially as a rising 5yo). It probably wont be enough to beat Hurricane Fly at leopardstown, but it will be closer. I expect him to reverse form in Champion in March.
[quote=āfenwaypark, post: 883275, member: 276ā]Really? I suggest that you look at who ran in that race and what their current ratings are?
Nobody would have backed Hurricane Fly for Champion Hurdle after he struggled to beat Marito in Morgiana. He must have improved 15-20 pounds easily. No doubt he will improve again for Irish Champion Hurdle with a view to getting him to peak in March.
Look at the mark that Our Conor ran in Ryanair on his first start in open company. Itās not fallacy to suggest that he improve markedly for his next start (especially as a rising 5yo). It probably wont be enough to beat Hurricane Fly at leopardstown, but it will be closer. I expect him to reverse form in Champion in March.[/quote]
I have looked ? 150 for the 3 rd beaten 25l by the two mentioned
Far west - rated 146
Sametegal - rated 150
Diakali - rated 152
Vasco De Ronceray - rated 139
Rolling Star - rated 150
Chris Pea Green - rated 142
This is the finishing position of those behind Our Conor in Triumph. Hurricane Fly is rated 175 but I suggest that he is below that rating at Cheltenham. Our Conor was an easy 15 length winner of Triumph. I suggest he needs to improve about 6-7 pounds on that performance to go close in Champion. Anyone who thinks a 5 year old is not open to that short of improvement needs to have a good look at themselves.
Based on a line through the 3rd he needs to improve 10lbs with TNO or MTOY, presuming the others donāt also improve which I donāt think he will. In fact he already looks like a 2.5 mile galloper to me , relentless rather that a speedster with a winning kick. I expect him to lead to the last and get passed by the 3 principles if all show up
thatās your view fp, triumph horses do not improve as much as traditional NH novicesā¦reasons obviousā¦iāll repeat, I think heās a galloper. Mullins will kick him off in front and heāll be picked off just like the many other (rooster booster excepted) animals that have tried similar tactics in the CH
he takes it up 2-3 out and gallops,
Iāve watched all his races fpā¦from fair with through to che, he didnāt do it the last day because he wasnāt good enough to get there
Interesting to say the least. She is entered in the Irish Champion Hurdle. FWIW, I think the Champion Hurdle is more her race than the world hurdle. She has made Zarkandar look fairly pedestrian this year. I would respect her chance greatly no matter where she runs.
he is brilliant at the handicaps but not so good at the championship races as in those looking for longer priced value is often not the best approach as they tend to be properly priced based on levels formā¦sheās definitely one to watchā¦probably the most exciting mare (quevega aside) since that colm murphy one whoās name now escapes me