Now that’s spot on …its a mess and the SNP really are dangeriously powerful from now on
Bumped for @Raymond Crotty.
Personally I think the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats will again form a government but they’ll need to involve the UKIP and/or DUP.
[QUOTE=“Bandage, post: 1135155, member: 9”]Bumped for @Raymond Crotty.
Personally I think the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats will again form a government but they’ll need to involve the UKIP and/or DUP.[/QUOTE]
How fucking scary is that
[QUOTE=“Bandage, post: 1135155, member: 9”]Bumped for @Raymond Crotty.
Personally I think the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats will again form a government but they’ll need to involve the UKIP and/or DUP.[/QUOTE]
A possibility no doubt but they couldn’t let those lunatics into government. Maybe a minority government with support from them but can you imagine the concessions they’d want. Be a sad day for the UK
Best of luck to David and Sam tomorrow. I have a feeling the Tories will lose however because the angel of doom, Kay Burley is reporting tomorrow night from Cameron’s constituency.
[QUOTE=“Bandage, post: 1135155, member: 9”]Bumped for @Raymond Crotty.
Personally I think the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats will again form a government but they’ll need to involve the UKIP and/or DUP.[/QUOTE]
I’ve done out a preview of the mathematical permutations of this and will post it shortly.
Why was there so much commotion over Miliband eating a sandwich?
He didn’t look Prime Ministerial.
You mean your reading NATE SILVERS BLOG 
Cameron mugged Clegg off over vote reform and in exchange the Liberals rejected the constituency revisions. It will probably cost the Tories 20 seats tomorrow night.,
Don’t think so, mate. I’ve a lot more experience of watching UK politics than him.
Good man sid
Right wing English press. Same reason they refer to him as RED ED they’ve given up any pretence at this stage
look at the head on the stuttering, backstabbing bastard
Spoiler that FFS
Daily Mail and the SUN
I expect a late swing to the Tories, but where that swing comes from is key, and where in terms of individual constituencies, because it’s all about the marginal seats, and it’s difficult to know how tactical voting patterns will go. But there will be a significant amount. Expect UKIP to suffer. If UKIP support drifts back to the Tories in the right places, it could give the Tories just enough.
The SNP in my view are going to almost wipe Labour out in Scotland and though it’s unlikely, it’s not completely beyond the bounds of possibility they could take every single seat - that’s only 9/2 with the bookies. I think it’s more likely they’ll get 55/56 however.
Labour currently have 256 seats. Take away, say, 37 of their 40 current Scottish seats, and they’re down to 219. That means they’ll want to be gaining probably at least 50 seats from the Tories and Lib Dems in England. It’s doable but a big ask, and reminiscent of 1992 to me. If they get around 270, they should have just enough to form a minority government with the SNP. But I think they’ll fall short of that.
The maths are obviously going to be crucial. The thing to examine is the “blocs”.
There’s a very real prospect that something like this could happen - in fact if you look at the seat over/under projections with the bookies this very close to what they have.
Tory bloc:
Tory 286
Lib Dem 25
DUP 9
UKIP 2
Independent Unionist 1
[B]323
Labour bloc:[/B]
Labour 262
SNP 51
SDLP 3
Plaid Cymru 3
Green 1
Respect 1
[B]321
Neither:[/B]
Sinn Fein 5 (won’t sit)
Speaker 1
A withdrawal of support by one person could bring down a government.
Let’s examine the respective “blocs”.
In the “Tory bloc”, the DUP and UKIP won’t work with Labour.
The SNP, Plaid Cymru, SDLP, Greens or George Galloway won’t work with the Tories.
That leaves the Lib Dems as the only “soft” party which could persuaded by either bloc.
A 323 v 321 Tory bloc majority involving the Lib Dems could lose its majority at any time. There were 21 by-elections during the last parliament.
Therefore the only chance of stability is for the Lib Dems to go in with Labour and push that bloc up to a workable 346.
You’d probably need 326 for a workable majority but even that isn’t secure and even if nobody defected, could be easily eroded by deaths of MPs and the resulting by-elections. The Guardian say the Tories will likely need 290 to stay in power. But even that mightn’t be enough because they’re relying on the Lib Dems to get 24 or 25 seats at least. In the above example, an increase of four for the Tories to 290 would give their bloc 327 overall which might be just about enough. One or two seats could be the difference. Like, is 288 or 289 Tory seats enough to persuade the Lib Dems to stick with them?
The Lib Dems will start off in the Tory bloc, but they’re the only ones who might switch blocs and that’s why they will hold a huge amount of power after the election even though they’re probably going to lose over half their seats. I expect Clegg to hold his seat however and he’s a good bet at 4/1 to be Deputy PM.
The battles between the SNP and Labour for seats, battles between the Tories and UKIP for seats, entertaining as they may be, will not be very important in the battle to be PM.
Labour/Lib Dem battles will certainly be significant as the Tories need the Lib Dems to form a government. Tory/Lib Dem marginals not so much and it surprises me that the Tories have placed such emphasis on these marginal seats.
For the first time ever, even a constituency like South Belfast where the SDLP are trying to hold on against the DUP, may be significant in who is PM. Fermanagh/South Tyrone would add a seat to the Tory bloc if Sinn Fein’s Michelle Gildernew was to lose, but I think she’ll hold on.
But it’s the marginal seats in middle England, the Tory/Labour battles, which will really swing it either way. That’s probably 25-30 seats at most.
It’s because a Labour/Lib Dem coalition with SNP minority support is the only likely way a workable stability can be attained (barring a late swing to the Tory bloc) that I think that’s what will ultimately happen. But I could well be wrong.
Thinly veiled anti-semitism at work there.
I’m not sure if you can see it properly but its a guide how to tactically vote against “Red Ed” :D. For example in constituencies where conservatives can’t win to vote for Lib Dem, or UKIP can’t win vote conservative.
They could really put the shits up stupid people, they did something similar to Kinnock in 1992.