Ya, they would also struggle to go with UKIP or the DUP who are too far right for a principled democrat, they could go in with a minority government with their support but that’s a disaster.
Similarly on the left Labour shouldn’t really go in with SNP.
Needs must and all that though.
Arthur’s Ashes, the black bloke wot won Wimbledon (in 1975).
Chin up, I just rated it informative there mate.
Thanks, mate. I feel better now.
[QUOTE=“Watch The Break, post: 1135349, member: 260”]The Red Woman will sort these Eton cunts out
She’s the Lorraine Kelly of UK politics.
Thanks, I’m grand, just looking for some electronic components, bazzard on ebay wont post to Ireland. Says he’s been screwed too many times before. How I don’t know.
the sun is shining after a few days of rain, a fitting way for me to start the proudest day of my life
It saddens me to see so many of you fascinated by UK politics… The same cunts who no doubt were glued to the telly last week when there was a royal baby born… The serf mentality is alive and well.
[QUOTE=“Watch The Break, post: 1135349, member: 260”]The Red Woman will sort these Eton cunts out
she’ll get what William Wallace got, she might fool the scots, however the people of Britain see through the evil bitch, trying to break up our country
Who will you be voting for Tassotti? UKIP?
Isn’t it a kingdom of four countries?
Some of us international businessmen have a very keen eye on what goes on in Westminister. One errant stroke of a pen to appease the minority in cabinet could wipe out years of Anglo Irish #business and end #international travel to #LCY as we know it.
When England sneezes, Ireland catches a cold, they are our nearest, dearest and most important neighbor
Just been to vote …what a collection of cunts
[QUOTE=“Sidney, post: 1135239, member: 183”]I expect a late swing to the Tories, but where that swing comes from is key, and where in terms of individual constituencies, because it’s all about the marginal seats, and it’s difficult to know how tactical voting patterns will go. But there will be a significant amount. Expect UKIP to suffer. If UKIP support drifts back to the Tories in the right places, it could give the Tories just enough.
The SNP in my view are going to almost wipe Labour out in Scotland and though it’s unlikely, it’s not completely beyond the bounds of possibility they could take every single seat - that’s only 9/2 with the bookies. I think it’s more likely they’ll get 55/56 however.
Labour currently have 256 seats. Take away, say, 37 of their 40 current Scottish seats, and they’re down to 219. That means they’ll want to be gaining probably at least 50 seats from the Tories and Lib Dems in England. It’s doable but a big ask, and reminiscent of 1992 to me. If they get around 270, they should have just enough to form a minority government with the SNP. But I think they’ll fall short of that.
The maths are obviously going to be crucial. The thing to examine is the “blocs”.
There’s a very real prospect that something like this could happen - in fact if you look at the seat over/under projections with the bookies this very close to what they have.
Tory bloc:
Tory 286
Lib Dem 25
DUP 9
UKIP 2
Independent Unionist 1
[B]323
Labour bloc:[/B]
Labour 262
SNP 51
SDLP 3
Plaid Cymru 3
Green 1
Respect 1
[B]321
Neither:[/B]
Sinn Fein 5 (won’t sit)
Speaker 1
A withdrawal of support by one person could bring down a government.
Let’s examine the respective “blocs”.
In the “Tory bloc”, the DUP and UKIP won’t work with Labour.
The SNP, Plaid Cymru, SDLP, Greens or George Galloway won’t work with the Tories.
That leaves the Lib Dems as the only “soft” party which could persuaded by either bloc.
A 323 v 321 Tory bloc majority involving the Lib Dems could lose its majority at any time. There were 21 by-elections during the last parliament.
Therefore the only chance of stability is for the Lib Dems to go in with Labour and push that bloc up to a workable 346.
You’d probably need 326 for a workable majority but even that isn’t secure and even if nobody defected, could be easily eroded by deaths of MPs and the resulting by-elections. The Guardian say the Tories will likely need 290 to stay in power. But even that mightn’t be enough because they’re relying on the Lib Dems to get 24 or 25 seats at least. In the above example, an increase of four for the Tories to 290 would give their bloc 327 overall which might be just about enough. One or two seats could be the difference. Like, is 288 or 289 Tory seats enough to persuade the Lib Dems to stick with them?
The Lib Dems will start off in the Tory bloc, but they’re the only ones who might switch blocs and that’s why they will hold a huge amount of power after the election even though they’re probably going to lose over half their seats. I expect Clegg to hold his seat however and he’s a good bet at 4/1 to be Deputy PM.
The battles between the SNP and Labour for seats, battles between the Tories and UKIP for seats, entertaining as they may be, will not be very important in the battle to be PM.
Labour/Lib Dem battles will certainly be significant as the Tories need the Lib Dems to form a government. Tory/Lib Dem marginals not so much and it surprises me that the Tories have placed such emphasis on these marginal seats.
For the first time ever, even a constituency like South Belfast where the SDLP are trying to hold on against the DUP, may be significant in who is PM. Fermanagh/South Tyrone would add a seat to the Tory bloc if Sinn Fein’s Michelle Gildernew was to lose, but I think she’ll hold on.
But it’s the marginal seats in middle England, the Tory/Labour battles, which will really swing it either way. That’s probably 25-30 seats at most.
It’s because a Labour/Lib Dem coalition with SNP minority support is the only likely way a workable stability can be attained (barring a late swing to the Tory bloc) that I think that’s what will ultimately happen. But I could well be wrong.[/QUOTE]
I think it will be fascinating if that Tory bloc becomes a possibility. There is a genuine ignorance in England of just how extreme and how crazy the DUP are. A government that depended on them remembering to be silent on social issues would be precarious. It wouldn’t need much digging or fake sheikhing by a left leaning media outlet to bring down a DUP MP and an entire government with it.
I think the most likely outcome is a Labour - SNP - Lib Dem coalition. Easier to manage a Lib Dem switch than control 3 or 4 smaller parties.
I’d agree with that @Rocko , though I hope not.
One of the fundamental flaws of a party based democracy is that a disproportionate minority can hold the balance of power and wield undue influence.
If labour do get in, unlike previous occasions they will take back the country they effectively bankrupted, rather than a relatively healthy set of books. Sterling will weaken , which may be good for exports, but there will be unease in the business world I’d imagine, and they won’t be able to splurge. Their every move will be open to pillory from all sides. It will be an uncomfortable time which, if managed badly, will result in a perhaps more stable Tory govt in future.
The price of oil , and with it the cost of living and inflation will rise coincidentally, which won’t help them.
Interesting times.
Peasants waiting for a few scraps off the big table.
[QUOTE=“flattythehurdler, post: 1135426, member: 1170”]I’d agree with that @Rocko , though I hope not.
One of the fundamental flaws of a party based democracy is that a disproportionate minority can hold the balance of power and wield undue influence.
If labour do get in, unlike previous occasions they will take back the country they effectively bankrupted, rather than a relatively healthy set of books. Sterling will weaken , which may be good for exports, but there will be unease in the business world I’d imagine, and they won’t be able to splurge. Their every move will be open to pillory from all sides. It will be an uncomfortable time which, if managed badly, will result in a perhaps more stable Tory govt in future.
The price of oil , and with it the cost of living and inflation will rise coincidentally, which won’t help them.
Interesting times.[/QUOTE]
Add to that the inevitable bursting of the London property bubble and you’d nearly want lab & snp to win so they won’t get near the controls again for a long time
I wasn’t glued to the telly, mate - I was waiting outside the hospital with a miniature butcher’s apron.