Can’t be elected, maybe. Doesn’t mean he won’t try. He wins the leadership vote, then he can get whoever he wants in to work with him. Might lead to a PD like splinter group out of labour, but he’s wooing the fuck out of every union in the country at this stage. Lot of registered voters there. Meanwhile, Brexit may be going badly, the wealth gap gets bigger and people get more pissed off and start wondering if maybe the beardy lad has a point.
Best to get rid now just in case.
Trade unions, oh ffs 
He is unelectable. Keep living in denial but the polls show that. He is the leader of opposition, not some student politician.
Anyone can be elected, pal. Look at the choice the septics have to make.
Madness may not yet have had its day.
UK opinion polling since the start of 2016 has been very similar to the US Presidential election. The vast majority of polls show the Tories leading with the margins veering between 1 and 11 points, with a few outlying polls putting Labour ahead and one tied poll.
That’s pretty much exactly the same scenario as in the US where the vast majority of polls show Clinton leading Trump by similar margins.
It’s strange how in the US case, you appear to be extremely bullish about Trump’s chances of victory, even though he has far less time to turn things around than Corbyn does, given that the US election is in less than four months time, while the next UK general election is likely to be in 2020.
Surely, if you feel Corbyn is unelectable, Trump is too, or perhaps not. More cognitive dissonance from you but we’ve come to expect that.
The last three Tory Prime Ministers have all lost their jobs over the issue of Europe, the Tories have a far longer time yet to implode again, and there’s an obvious issue which could implode them, if not two.
The Labour Party were 11, yes 11 points behind the Tory Party this week. This is after Brexit when the Tory party split in two & were a laughing stock in Europe. The start of 2016 is very very different to the post Brexit landscape.
They are losing everywhere except the north, where UKIP, yes UKIP are still eating into their share.
Corbyn’s approval ratings have been dreadful from the get go (http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/09/24/jeremy-corbyn-popularity-poll_n_8189174.html) - the only saving grace that they were at times slightly better than an incumbent PM, the government that was bringing in austerity.
Ultimately, Corbynmania is a takeover by social media types and hard line lefties, it is failing to win the working classes and will lose more votes to UKIP and the Tories there (yes that’s right). Over 52% of members of Labour who were members of the Labour Party pre general election (that’s before the socialist workers party members realised they could join for 3 pound and get their boy in), want him out immediately. Another 11% say he should go before the general election. That’s 63% of long term Labour Party members.
The claim is, “isn’t it wonderful how engaged he gets people with politics!”, but that doesn’t hold up to wider electability. Joining something for a few pounds on the internet is classic millennial behaviour, half a million hardliners doesn’t matter a jot with an electorate of 10s of millions.
He doesn’t even win with 18-24 year olds, which is what his zealots on twitter claim is his camp
Labour were one point behind last week. A new PM allied to the ridiculous behaviour of the Blairites has rather predictably given the Tories a bounce in the latest polls.
Clinton was 13 points up last week.
Can you explain the difference in your respective forecasts in which you confidently predict a Trump win and confidently predict a Corbyn disaster in 2020, despite them faring identically in polls?
What poll said that Sidney (the Labour one vs Tories?). As for Clinton vs. Trump - the polls are all over the place as we discussed elsewhere, some putting it broadly level (such as the NYT/CBS poll) and others with swings. We are talking about the two most unpopular candidates ever in Trump and Clinton. Only one is an official candidate yet.
Lets look at Miliband’s Labour polling vs Corbyn’s so far (these are poll of poll figures)
2010-15
2015/2016
Corbyn struggled to get off 30% and barely over 35% (briefly).
Miliband generally was between 35-40%.
It’s a clear pattern, Corbyn is a dead duck.
What is so strange about the whole Corbyn thing is how his social media zealots hold him up to some sort of Messiah. It’s a victory for a Twitter and Facebook audience alright, but not in the wider public.
Ipsos MORI, polled July 9th-11th.
I’m not really interested in all those graphs which don’t address my point at all.
You still haven’t answered the question about the clear inconsistency in term of your prediction that Trump will win compared to your repeated insistence that Corbyn is unelectable.
You say the polls are “all over the place” in the US race. This is clearly not so - Clinton has consistently led in all bar a few outlying polls, sometimes with double digit margins - ie. the exact same scenario as the Tories leading Labour in Britain.
It’s ironic (I know, again) that you talk about “social media zealots” in relation to Corbyn, yet in relation to Trump…no this is too easy.
One could, very fairly I think, form the opinion that your difference in predictions between the two scenarios is purely because you want Trump to win, whereas you hate Corbyn.
You aren’t interested in polls of polls?
Polls of polls give a weighted average, allowing less cherry picking.
They show Corbyn has struggled to get over 32 odd % and barely over 35 on occasion. Miliband largely lived between 35-40%, getting over 40% on a number of occasions.
So just to be clear, you aren’t interested in big picture polls, just picking and choosing the ones you like.
The point made from the start regarding this election was that Trump, when up against Bernie Sanders (unelectable on a national platform) and Hillary Clinton, is a contender. What myself and others consistently pointed out was that the email saga would damage her once the report came out, and that has been the case.
In terms of a “poll of polls”, we get that from 538. They currently have Clinton over Trump in the popular vote by 2.3%. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
The biggest drawback for Trump is his historic unpopularity with independents. Luckily Clinton is nearly as despised as much.
And as for social media zealots- Trumps support skews older.
However, the biggest issue here with you making a like for like forecast is that we have yet to see Clinton/Trump square off. We have just had convention number one.
With Corbyn, we have nearly one year of full leadership vs the Conservative Party and Cameron. Despite the Tories botching tax credits & Europe hanging over everything since the election, he has failed to move the dial.
Miliband managed to get Labour polling up to general election winning numbers consistently. Corbyn has failed to get to general election winning numbers. The thing is though, that the likes of you don’t really care about winning elections. You would prefer to sit on the sidelines slinging mud over everything, rather than doing something.
i) Trump v Sanders polls consistently showed Sanders well ahead, it wasn’t even close. The poll average was Sanders winning by 10.4%. Christ knows what that makes Trump in terms of electability, given that you now say Sanders was “unelectable on a national scale”.
ii) The email thing has had pretty much no effect on poll ratings. Clinton still consistently leads. If Trump cannot get a bounce from the Republican convention and take the lead in the polls this weekend, he’s screwed. Clinton will get a significant bounce from the Democratic convention next week when Bernie Sanders will be on prime time TV endorsing her. And Trump’s thuggish persona won’t play well in the debates, especially against a woman.
iii) There’s just been a new PM appointed in the UK. We have yet to see a proper face off between May and Corbyn. The dynamic will take quite a while to play out, years not months, and as I’ve stated before, the Tories have the ostrich in the room of Europe to deal with, as well as Scotland. That’s plenty of scope for them to implode, and they have long historical form for doing so.
Corbyn’s real enemies for the moment lie within his own party - the people who call for “unification” are the ones who have been trying to divide the party since before he was even elected. Nothing has changed since last September. He’ll be in a stronger position when he’s re-elected.
iv) Corbyn has a far better chance of winning an election than any prospective replacement. Blairism has a problem - it isn’t 1997, and with little prospect of it being so again for the foreseeable future, is a dead duck electorally. Corbyn’s nuanced stance on Brexit shows he is far more in touch with the ordinary voter than any would be replacement. Labour will do far better in the long run by tapping into the genuine anger and disquiet at how Tory economics have turned vast swathes of Britain into an economic wasteland, than by putting out a Tory reserve team. There’s little point in winning an election if you stand for nothing and want to do the same thing as those you replace.
v) Social media zealotry is a key element in the Trump campaign. Everywhere you look on the INTERNET, they’re there, including on this forum. And they all share the same characteristics - a cult-like adherence to the most simplistic beliefs, demagoguery, thinly veiled racism and misogyny, an ingrained imagined victim complex, a penchant for making easily disprovable lies. It’s the classic cult - the ultimate establishment figure as the anti-establishment candidate. An utter fraud of a man and an utter fraud of a campaign.
vi) Corbyn’s popularity on the other hand is because he is an honest and authentic voice for the oppressed and the disadvantaged, whose policies are basically old school social democratic - the type of policies that led to the most prolonged period of prosperity the western world has ever known. It’s because the cosy cartel of right-wing politics and media fears him that they try to vilify him so much. Bernie Sanders showed there is a willing audience for such politics in the US and there’s good reason to think there will be in Britain too.
I’m a big fan of Corbyn.
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They will implode through complacency. They always do.
Sanders was in the unique position for a long time of being the third wheel in the campaign, when 2 polarising candidates were getting all the knocks and media attention. The Republicans were egging Sanders on, hoping he would be the candidate they would go up against, attacks were all going one way. A similar phenomenon was on display a short time before with Kasich vs Clinton numbers showing a strong Kasich lead. When one candidate is consistently getting bombs thrown at them and the other isn’t, one looks very rosy against the other.
That is why these adversarial polls are only taken seriously when the tickets have been fully fleshed out.
The US will not elect someone of Sanders positions to the Presidency. Sticking around the election for a long time though worked great for them in watering down Clinton’s positions and long term in helping that movement get more candidates of that ideology running for the House.
Incorrect. Flies in the face of numbers and the reality. The needle has moved in Trump’s favour, polls show this. This cements her trustworthiness in office.
There’s no “he’s screwed” after the Convention. Wait until we have the tickets in place. Wait until the first debate before making that pronouncement. The poll of polls shows a small popular vote margin favouring Clinton currently. It has only just begun.
You are willfully ignoring Corbyn’s consistently dreadful polling for nearly a year, when he was IN PLACE as leader of the opposition. It’s quite hilarious. Once again, the graphs which you just don’t want to look at.
On Scotland - are you barking? Losing Scotland (still highly unlikely, more wishful thinking from yourself), whilst bad for the Conservative Party’s self imagine, would be nothing but good for them electorally. Although they did recently manage to become the second largest Party in the Scottish Parliament. Labour, with Corbyn’s stunning national leadership, collapsed further in a place which was once a bedrock of support.
Regarding Europe, May has made the correct moves to fend of issues on it for her. She has appointed key Brexiters (Fox, Davis) to the key Brexit positions. It’s still an enormous issue for them clearly, but the economy at large is the issue. The Conservatives managed to get Britain back to near full employment in May after Labour wrecked the economy, now they are in a fire fight of their own making. The key opposition they’ll get on that front though will be from the SNP, Lib Dems and other regional parties including the likes of Sinn Féin who don’t even sit in Westminister, whilst Corbyn is off flying kites in Islington.
How can you say that when polls have shown consistently that people would more likely vote for Labour under a new leader than the current one? The problem isn’t his policies per se, it’s that he’s a bumbling fool not cut out to lead a political party.
Where’s Corbyn’s “nuanced” stance on immigration btw? Immigration, a key reason why Labour have been losing votes in their heartlands.
No it isn’t. It’s his ability to connect with his core vote (older conservatives) via their favoured medium of cable news. Trump is popular as a character on the internet as his campaign is gas, but that demo is not where his votes are coming from. It is largely working class and lower middle class white males over 40, they aren’t the true social media generation.
Corbyn’s support skews younger. That’s a victory for Momentum’s social media team as the guy has zero charisma.
Corbyn is popular with a relatively small band of followers.
His PLP won’t work with him. I doubt worldwide there has ever been a leader (in a democracy) who has stuck around with 4 out of 5 of his colleagues said they don’t have confidence with him. IDS stepped down after securing 40 odd % of his vote. Maggie left despite winning her first ballot on no confidence. In Australia, where they are far more used to these type of leadership contests, you’d be gone.
The polls show consistently that he is not popular with the public. Polls of trade union members show he isn’t popular with them.
The only people who think Jeremy Corbyn should continue to lead the Labour Party are the Conservative Party. a few hundred thousand millennials and former socialist worker party members.
Jeremy Corbyn now proposing removing R&D tax credits from Pharma companies to develop new drugs. The NHS can now apparently start early stage development of drugs.
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The absolute delusion dripping from every bit of this post is, frankly, staggering.
Great response Sid, stumped so you resort to that.
You throw out polls to suit your argument and ignore arguments against those figures.
You ignore polls of polls because they don’t suit your beliefs.
More great news from tomorrows polls anyway, Corbyn has double to support of Smith. http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/23/labour-leadership-jeremy-corbyn-more-double-support-owen-smith
The only worry for the Tories at the moment is if the sane Labour MPs peel off and give them a proper bit of opposition for the next few years, as Labour under Corbyn cannot govern.
Opinium found, however, that while Corbyn is popular within his own party in the country, his ratings are catastrophic when voters are asked about his suitability to be prime minister.
When all voters were asked who they thought would be the best prime minister – Corbyn or Theresa May – 52% chose May and just 16% Corbyn. Among Labour supporters 48% said Corbyn and 22% May, while among Tory supporters 88% said May and 4% Corbyn.
No, mate I’ve better things to be doing than typing out posts in response to a simpleton who has an inability to read properly.
What did I not read properly mate?
I’ve given you polls of polls, which you said you “aren’t interested in”.
I’ve challenged your selective use of polls with actual facts and logic. You’ve run for cover because you know well you have nothing here to defend Corbyn’s leadership with beyond parroting lines from Momentum supporters on twitter. “Iraq!” “Blairites!”
You know he can’t be elected but will use this rebellion as an excuse when the time comes that Labour suffer a 1983 like wipeout. The simple fact is that Corbyn has been performing dreadfully since he was elected leader.
Learn to read and I might get back to you, pal. 