US Politics. Oh yes he did. Oh no he didn't


#4594

The consensus is still Dems to take control of the house and Republicans to keep control of the Senate and maybe pick up a few extra seats. Wouldn’t bet a cent on the outcome at this stage as polls, especially from networks like CNN, are a joke shop. My tentative prediction is Dems to pick up some house seats like maybe 20 but not the big sweep they expect.

Trump will be delighted if the Dems take the house as he will have someone to fight against for the next 2 years and blame if the economy goes tits up.


#4595

What time will the first exit polls be out tonight?


#4596

Early evening, but there will be fuck all that’s useful until after polls close, so 7PM to 11PM EST.


#4597

I’ve had a small bet on the blue wave for the Dems tonight. Backed them to win Arizona Senate race @ evs and Indiana @ 8/11. Both with Betway. PP are 1/2 on the Indiana one.

Nate Silver (who admittedly fucked up the Presidential), gives the Dems a 61% probability of winning in Arizona but bookies are pricing it 50/50. Similarly gives them a 70% chance in Indiana but bookies are at 58%. Nearly all the other betting is identical to the probabilties he has up, to the point it looks like they just took his probabilities and calculated odds off them (which would be smart enough IMO).

The Presidents party nearly always get smashed up in midterms regardless of who they are, never mind this loon. Democrats seem to be getting the vote out judging by voter registrations etc. Taking the senate seems it might be just beyond them but taking the house @ 7/20 seems like buying money.

I’ve had a small bet on Beto to win Texas @ 3/1 as well for the craic.


#4598

Quite true, but the main reason is having won the presidency, the incumbent’s base is not very energized. This is a midterm unlike any previous, CNN and all the other MSM clowns may be making the same mistake they made in 2016 i.e. discounting the silent majority vote that gets missed in polls.

The Dems haven’t a notion of winning the Senate, the Republican majority will likely increase.


#4599

6/1 for dems to take Senate.


#4600

Nate makes it 50 to Republicans 48 to Democrats and two toss ups Nevada & Missouri. 50/50 would mean Pence was the balance of power wouldn’t it :see_no_evil:


#4601

The markets will be obliterated tomorrow if that happens.


#4602

This line in the Guardian doesn’t look like things are going well for the Republicans:-

At his final rally, in Missouri on Monday night, Trump said: “We are taking back our country.” He falsely claimed Democrats “would obliterate Obamacare”, the Democratic healthcare law named after his predecessor that Trump’s party has spent eight years trying to scrap.

(BTW, love how the Guardian can’t even respect its readers enough to make their minds up themselves that the Democrats probably aren’t the ones trying to obliterate Obamacare)


#4603

Obamacare was deeply unpopular under Obama and is deeply popular under Trump. Go figure.


#4604

I have this one worked out: Trump’s not black.


#4605

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#4606

So far, it’s a rerun of 2016. CNN and MSNBC absolutely creaming themselves at early counts, including almost calling Texas for batshit crazy Paddy O’Beto.

Meanwhile markets have already decided there will be no blue wave. Long night ahead.


#4607

No, it’s simpler than that even. There are good bits and bad bits in Obamacare (like all health care systems), and as always people want to lose the bad bits and keep the good bits. The problem is the bad bits (higher premium costs, less choice) pay for the good bits (mandatory coverage for pre-existing conditions, subsidized premiums).


#4608

@labane1917 is calling it early.

No Blue Tsunami.
No Blue Wave.
A possible Blue Tinkle.

This will be an awful kick in the balls for the Dems if they don’t take the house.

edit. they should still take the house.


#4609

A blue rinse


#4610

:clap:


#4611

We’ve taken the house.

Up your hairy hole, @labane1917


#4612

Oirish lads on twitter losing their shit over who’ll be governor of Indiana or something is gas.


#4613

Who will be the governor of Indiana?