Crooked Hillary has always been bizarrely popular with the Hispanics – over and above the Democrats natural advantage with them – and to make matters worse it now appears she’s tearing into one of the GOP’s most reliable Floridian constituencies, namely Fidel’s boys, or at least the younger generations among them. Overall it appears she has a sizable lead among FL Hispanics, which augurs badly – people maybe don’t realise that the Kennebunkport boys were winning amongst that group down in Florida in the 00s, in fact I think exit polling even suggested JEB was winning even if you left out the Cubans. It will take a lot of angry white property developers to make up the deficit for Mr Trump. Back about 10 years ago I would have described FL as a swing state that’s mildly more GOP than the nation on average, now I’d say it’s mildly above-average Democrat. The Hispanic factor means that Colorado and Nevada – are back-breakers for Mr Trump and the same is true of New Mexico, a State that the GOP might have had a sliver of hope of carrying in a tight election year.
Bottom line is to win overall he needs to carry one of Pennsylvania, Michigan or Wisconsin. This sums up his problem – none of those states have looked particularly tight this year. Wisconsin is a perennial ‘swing state’ yet always goes to the Democrat – I think Reagan was the last to carry it although Dubya came to within an ace of doing it in 2000. There’s also a Senate race ongoing where the Democrats seemed poised to oust the incumbent GOP with a bit to spare. Michigan is another that is theoretically in play every year but again realistically goes Democrat. Pennsylvania does tend to be tight though but it hasn’t gone to the GOP since 1988 and even that was tight I think. So truly Mr Trump is up against it, which will only make his victory next Tuesday all the sweeter.