It isnāt a question of anyone thinking Trump āwillā win fitzy, itās whether Trump ācanā win. The reality is anyone thinking Trump canāt win is misguided or possibly deluded, as they are applying ānormalā rationality and history to this very unique election. You may as well throw away all the blue state/red state maps as this will be an election like no other. Trump is appealing primarily to blue collar workers, a traditional Democratic stronghold, but one they have lost touch with.
As you say, both candidates are very unpopular, so how many Democrats will hold their noses while voting compared to Republicans, how many independents will vote for one of the other two candidates etc. For example I have seen polls with Jill Stein and Gary Johnson as high as 15% combined. Johnson will attract dissatisfied Republican and Democratic voters, and Independents, Stein will get a lot of the hard line Bernie supporters.
According to the most recent Rasmussen poll, 76% of Americans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction. 76 fucking percent. What we know is that a Hillary presidency will be 4 or 8 more years of the same. Do you think the 76% are pleased about the prospect of more of the same for themselves and their children? Now they may have grave reservations about Trump, but the urge for change is the great unknown that could lead to a paradigm shift. There are two factors in elections, fundamentals and sentiment. Fundamentals are easy to measure and predict, history of how states have voted, demographics, voter views on the issues, etc. Elections generally follow the fundamentals. Sentiment though is the wild card, the black swan thatās impossible to predict. How many predicted a Brexit outcome, even after all the pressure applied by the establishment parties?
What you have to remember is Hillary (a weak candidate) is not running against a traditional Republican opponent. Trump has exposed the traditional Republican candidate as a loser, the establishment hated him for it and tried everything to defeat him, but failed. Anyone thinking he canāt do the same to Hillary and her campaign is likely to have a surprise during the debates and in November.
Itās shaping up to be an incredible 3 and a bit months. Iām getting a similar feeling to the one I had at the start of February 2011 about Leinster Rugbyās upcoming playoff clashes vs the Titans of Europe. Iāve no doubt weāll enjoy a similar finish to a similarly magical period. Roll on the debates.
The Irish media are very balanced on this !!! . No great time for Trump but the seethe in Irish media circles if he wins wiill put the reaction to Brexit in the HaāPenny place.
Iāve said it before but the Irish media take all of their American sources from liberal ones - NBC, ABC, CBS, New York Times ect. Couple that with media bureaus from the UK & Ireland in the US rarely leave the East Coast liberal bubble and you have a serious amount of bias. I still recall the seethe and consternation in 04 when W got his second term over here
