Zero support?
Is he making the bunker buster bombs out of a mecanno set in his shed then?
Trump is clear favourite to win this election now.
Biden needs to hand Harris the Oval Office to arrest the slide. The Harris campaign needs to fix the public perception that Trump is stronger on the economy.
Youâd imagine the working assumption of foreign leaders will pivot to Trump election being likely.
Theres been some swings in mood music in this race so far. Trump seems almost certain to win again now. Hopefully ceoil na mĂșdaigh can change again.
I donât know the answer to that, Iâd be speculating as you would be. He probably does but whoever wins the genocide will continue backed fully by a Biden administration or a Harris administration or a Trump administration.
So thatâs a grudging âyes, Netanyahu does want Trump to winâ.
Trump is being backed to the hilt to the tune of 100 million dollars by Miriam Edelson who openly supports genociding the Palestinians out of the West Bank on the proviso that he supports this.
That is how Trump will âgovernâ.
As you well know, most Harris supporters are rightly angry with the administrationâs limp-wristed response to Israelâs campaign of genocide.
They also recognise that Trump will be worse on every level.
The âleftâ who are so derided here are entirely correct on Israel/Palestine. Perhaps if self styled âadultsâ hadnât spent their lives trying to destroy the left, the response from the current US administration would be better.
Trump cant break past 46%. He isnt changing many minds amongst the independents. If Harris maintains a 3% national advantage shes in as thatâll be enough to carry the huge bias weighting the Dems enjoy in states like California, New York
National advantage is worthless if you canât win swing states.
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Paddy Power has them both 10/11 now. Absolute pick âem
Harris will almost certainly win the popular vote.
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Thatâs not true.
Itâs fairly obvious Biden canât touch Israel because if he does he hands the election to trump.
Hence why they need to win the election before doing anything.
Itâs no coincidence Israel are dialling things up as they know it plays into trumps hands.
Biden could save himself but heâd be consigning the rest of the world to oblivion.
In terms of a national popular vote margin, lot depends on the margins in particular states. Trump could be running up the margin big in Florida and Ohio this time. While Harris will still win New York comfortably, the New York Democratic party is a shambles and bad PR for her and the margin mightnât be as big as in previous years. Hillary Clinton ran up massive margins in the big states she won but every vote beyond the winning one is basically worthless.
Yet Wisconsin seems to be holding where you might have expected it to go. North Carolina could go to Harris. I still expect Harris to pull Nevada out, and maybe Arizona. That leaves Pennsylvania, Michigan and Georgia, all of which are razor close.
Governor and senate races in North Carolina and Arizona are definitely going to go to the Democrats. That could affect the top of the ticket.
The conventional wisdom is Harris probably needs a 4-5% margin in the popular vote to win the electoral college, but itâs possible she could pull it out with 2-3% of a margin nationally. There are patterns in individual states bubbling away which a national poll wonât detect.
Iâd have it Trump 55% Harris 45% likelihood of winning right now. 45% is still a decent chance.
Harris and Walz need to stop listening to the Clintons and Biden and stop letting the Cheneys and these types hog the headlines. They need to start attacking this thing again, to get out front and centre and get visible again nationally, to create a buzz. Trump has slithered back into the race mainly by continually hogging the headlines through saying insane stuff. It works as a strategy, heâs visible, the insane stuff doesnât put âundecidedâ voters off because undecideds have no interest in politics, theyâre interested in entertainment, and it takes the limelight and the buzz away from Harris.
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Do you think? Looking at the latest odds and it seems to be neck and neck, hopefully Harris can do it. I know she isnât perfect but the thoughts of a another Trump term is depressing.
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Walzâs visit to tiananmen square was very braveâŠhe could have been kilt
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Iâm not sure the odds have much relevance to the outcome particularly in Europe.
People might have vested interests business where backing an outcome can be a safety net.
The odds on Betfair were volatile for things like Brexit and the last two general elections.
Do you live in America?
No I donât, do you?
America is fucked regardless of which moron wins this Election. Fucked
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But is it a case of fucked or really fucked?
No itâs not