America is remarkably fucked. Trump states are now endorsing âPrager Universityâ which is a fascist propaganda operation as official âeducationâ.
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Doesnât really break it down in the swing states, but the BBC has an odd bit of polling data or info:
- Nearly 17 million Americans have already cast their vote, and research by Suffolk University suggests Vice-President Kamala Harris has an almost two-to-one lead over Donald Trumpamong those who have voted so far
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I find it bizarre that such statistics can be released and I question how reliable they are anyway.
Are they just talking about the amount of registered Democrats, Republicans and independents who have voted so far or are they talking about actual counted votes?
Or is it just an opinion poll?
Or what?
There seem to me to be all sorts of reasons you wouldnât want to release the information as to who has voted for who and in what numbers.
If youâre ahead, you fear it will drive complacency. If youâre behind, you fear it will drive apathy. These sort of numbers seem to potentially materially affect the outcome of the election by driving behaviour among real potential voters or non-voters. The whole thing seems bizarre to me.
I see tweets every day from a guy called Joshua Smithley about early voting numbers in Pennsylvania. None of them seem to make much sense to me.
Youâd strongly expect the democrats to win the postal votes, republican voters would hardly figure it out.
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This is why the democrat/snowflakes/Obama keep fucking up. They see all republican voters as the red necks who invade the capital but in truth those voting for Trump that are tipping the balance are anything but this. But keep up the insults, thatâll win them over.
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Is there any chance that like Trump in 16 people are voting for Harris and not saying they are.A lot of people voted for Trump in 16 but wouldnât admit that to pollsterâs.
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Shur you canât trust polls anymore
Thereâs a chance of a lot of things.
If I were looking at the polls over the last eight years with a view to doing polling in 2024, I would have bluntly adjusted whatever figures I got about six points towards Trump.
Nobody knows what models the pollsters are using or if they are worth a fuck. As far as I can see the pollsters are so confused they donât know what way to turn, and thereâs a lot of bullshit partisan polling out there.
2022 had a polling error in favour of the Democrats but Trump wasnât on the ballot and my assumption is the polls will be wrong in Trumpâs favour again. However you then have the dynamic where the polling error is usually in the opposite way to what you expect. You also have the dynamic where bullshit partisan pollsters can be more accurate than supposed A+ rated pollsters.
Paralysis by analysis, driven by a load of spoofers with cones.
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An insult on a niche Irish sports forum is what will tip the election, like Limerick hammering Wexford in 2014 purely because Wexford supporters on this forum got optimistic.
Your view of Trump voters seems to be that they are easily offended snowflakes, so maybe itâll be your insult that puts Trump in the White House again.
Its happening 
https://twitter.com/joeroganhq/status/1848824394250129550?t=DxTMuOKEegvU9SMNN6JREw&s=19
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Youâre 100% right about polls being bullshit, only morons answer polls
Postal votes have always heavily favoured the democrat candidate historically. Itâs hardly news.
They vote early and often
4 different Socialist partiesđ¤
Exactly what the right wants
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Thatâs patently untrue mate.
It was the case in 2020 and to a lesser degree in 2022 mid terms due to the Rona virus. But historically not the case.
The peopleâs front of Judea
What have they ever done for us ?
Itâs an odd one, and didnât go into specifics but if itâs a university research project, it could have been on a small number of people contacted whoâd already voted. Neither party would want to broadcast those type of numbers a fortnight out. Kamala is sticking to âitâs closeâ while Trump claims heâs leading pretty much most demographics (often falsely) by âa laaaaatâ. That type of messaging could breed a complacency amongst his base. Didnât it turn out that many of the J6âers didnât even bother to vote in the election?!
I think there still is the possibility that either candidate could win in a landslide, but unlikely and I feel that Trump will win at this stage of the race.
I have a feeling that the Dems may have a few big release bullets left in the chamber to aim at him in the last week, but the shit seems to slide off him, especially with the cult-like following of the rural, uneducated voters he relies on that are willing to look past (or worship) his rapey, misogynistic and racist rhetoric and behaviors.
If we think the world is fucked nowâŚwhich it is and Americaâs world influence waning unable to stop it, Trump will be the prime instigator in accelerating the demise of the U.S, and by proxy, the westâŚfor his Communist paymasters.
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