He will win. Backing him is buying money
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He lost in 2020 mate
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Pennsylvania currently 8/11 Dems, Evens GOP. Itās not exactly pivotal but youād need a lot to go right for you to win without it
Incumbents tend to do better in reality than their polling shows. Harris isnāt an incumbent in the real sense but is a quasi-incumbent.
Trump did better than his polling in 2016 and 2020. You would imagine polling companies have factored that in. If they have a brain anyway.
Seems to me there are an awful lot of joke polls by joke Republican pollsters queering the averages.
Democrats and people who maintain any hope of America being any sort of decent society have been burned to such an extent by Trump doing better than his polls that they have all but assumed heāll do three to four points better than his polling average.
It might be the case again this time but it might not. Nate Silver used to have a law of polling that the polling error goes in the opposite way to what you expect. It seems to me to heās thrown his own law out this time and isnāt really worth listening to any more for a variety of reasons, number one being that heās being paid by Peter Thiel and is no longer independent, but there are others. Heās shown distinct signs of disappearing up his own hole for a good few years now.
If you assume a starting point of Harris 226 and Trump 219, there are 93 electoral votes up for grabs:
Pennsylvania 19 votes (8/11 Dems 1/1 GOP
Georgia 16 votes (5/4 Dems 8/15 GOP)
North Carolina 16 votes (5/4 Dems 1/2 GOP)
Michigan 15 votes (1/2 Dems 6/4 GOP)
Arizona 11 votes (5/4 Dems 4/7 GOP)
Wisconsin 10 votes (1/2 Dems 6/4 GOP)
Nevada 6 votes (8/11 Dems 1/1 GOP)
Odds from Paddypower. The only state outside of these with even remotely close odds is Florida, which is 1/9 to go GOP
These are the gut feelings I get about carious states:
Wisconsin - I think this is holding for Harris. Dems have got more of a foothold lately in terms of controlling the state.
Nevada - Numerous times in national elections over the last 15 years or so Republicans have looked like winning in this state and have always failed. Iād expect it to be the same this time.
Pennsylvania - my gut feel this is dodgy for Harris and Trump could take it by 0.1% or so.
North Carolina - my gut feel is Trumpās hold is slipping here.
Georgia - margins were so tight last time and I expect any sort of jiggery pokery to give it back to Trump. Think Trump might nudge this one.
Michigan - toss up.
Arizona - toss up.
Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin have always voted the same way since 1988 but I think that could break this time.
In your prediction the dems need Michigan
I suspect theyāll get it, just, by under 1%.
Arizona also tends to underpoll Dems.
This is the sort of thing which can tip elections.
If I was guessing now Iād say GOP will take Nevada and Arizona. Dems take Michigan. GOP maybe takes North Carolina. I think that just gives the GOP the win
I laid him in 2020
Trump will try start another riot like last time if he loses.
Thereās no way the deep state will risk another trump presidencyā¦thereāll be another assassination attempt within a fortnight. Sure the last three were barely mentioned
Was he a gentle lover?
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@Jake_Stevens made a nice few quid when he backed Mayo to beat Dublin in the 2020 All-Ireland final.
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1836056101474746703?s=46
Looks like trumps feigned assassination attempt backfired
Bad to worse for Rapey McFraudsalot.
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The national vote doesnāt matter a fuck. Hillary Clinton won the national/popular vote in 2016.
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